Yankees vs. Braves Betting preview & Predictions

Yankees vs. Braves Betting preview & Predictions

Darin Zank
Date: August 15, 7:20 pm
Location: Truist Park
TV: TBS

Betting Odds

Moneyline: NYY +185/Atl -205

In the middle game of a three-game series, the high-scoring Braves will strive to maintain their winning momentum against the struggling Yankees. Atlanta's Bryce Elder will be taking the mound against New York's Luis Severino.

MLB Betting Odds

The initial odds for Tuesday’s game positioned Atlanta and Elder as favorites at around -190 over New York and Severino, with an over/under set at 10.5 runs. The early betting action saw the Braves' odds shift to -205. Additionally, Atlanta could be found at approximately -110 when giving the run and a half on the run line.

Team Analysis

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta secured a dominant victory in the series opener with an 11-3 score against the Yankees. After trailing 2-1 in the early innings, the Braves responded strongly by scoring three runs in the second inning and four more in the third. This victory continues their impressive performance, with a 6-2 record over their last eight games. Their overall record of 76-42 places them ahead of the Dodgers by 4.5 games in the race for the best record in the National League.

New York Yankees

The Yankees have been facing difficulties, having lost 2 of their last 8 games. With an overall record of 60-59, they currently trail the Toronto Blue Jays by 5.5 games in the contest for the third American League wild-card spot.

Pitching Match-Up

Atlanta Braves - Bryce Elder

Elder has a record of 13/23 on quality starts this season, but his recent performance has been less favorable. In his last outing against Pittsburgh, he allowed five runs and six hits in five innings, resulting in a 7-5 loss for Atlanta. In the previous game against the Cubs, Elder gave up seven runs, five of which were earned, in less than five frames of an 8-6 defeat for the Braves. Despite a season record of 15-8 with Elder, Atlanta has experienced a slump, with a record of 2-4 in his last six appearances.

New York Yankees - Luis Severino

Severino, with a record of 3/13 on quality starts this season, has faced challenges recently. In his last game against the White Sox, he allowed four runs and five hits in just two innings of relief. Over his last four appearances, he has been touched for 21 runs and 28 hits in only 15 innings. With a record of 5-8 this season and 1-5 over his last six starts, the Yankees have had a challenging time with Severino on the mound.

Hitting and Bullpen Analysis

Hitting Stats

The Yankees have a batting average of .228 against right-handed pitching this season, accompanied by a .302 team OBP and a .393 team slugging percentage. On the other hand, the Braves exhibit strong hitting capabilities, with a slash line of .269/.341/.492 against right-handed pitching. Despite missing 2B Ozzie Albies due to a sore hamstring, the Braves lineup proved effective in the series opener.

Bullpen Performance

The Braves bullpen holds a 3.49 ERA this season, boasting a 1.21 WHIP and a 3.13 K/BB ratio. Similarly, the Yankees' bullpen showcases a solid performance, with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 2.50 K/BB ratio. Both bullpens are among the top units in baseball.

MLB Betting Trends and Totals Report

MLB Betting Trends

The Yankees hold a road record of 25-31 this season, along with a record of 47-50 against right-handed starters. The Braves, on the other hand, maintain a strong home record of 38-20 and a record of 61-35 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

The Unders have prevailed in 60-54 Yankees games this season, while the Overs dominate in 65-51 Braves games. Truist Park has witnessed a record of 35-22 in favor of Unders this season.

Yankees at Braves Free Pick 8/15/23

Despite Elder's recent struggles, we consider him a better choice in the pitching match-up compared to Severino. Alongside their pitching advantage, the Braves also exhibit stronger hitting capabilities. Given their recent momentum and the overall situation, we favor the Braves in this match-up. However, considering the price, we opt for a safer approach by placing our bet on the Braves against the run line, especially given that 59 of Atlanta’s 76 wins this season have been achieved with a margin of at least two runs.

Free Pick: Take the Braves -1.5 runs
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