Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros World Series Game 6 Pick

October 29, 8:07 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Astros -175/Nationals +155

The Astros are one win away from their second World Series title in the last three seasons, and now get to host Game 6 Tuesday night down in H-Town. But home-field advantage hasn't meant squat in this series so far, considering the visitors have won every game. How are we playing this one with our free World Series pick?

MLB Betting Odds

MLB World Series betting odds opened Houston at around -175 for Game 6 over Washington, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then bumped that total to 7.5.

The Astros could also be found getting around +125, giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

World Series Game 6 Betting Set-Up

Washington won the first two games of this World Series in Houston, but the Astros won the next three in DC, including a 7-1 Game 5 decision Sunday night. Houston got a gift before Game 5 even started when scheduled Nationals starter Max Scherzer was scratched due to a sore back. The Astros then scored two runs in the second inning off replacement Joe Ross, two more in the fourth, then iced the game with a run in the eighth and two more in the ninth.

Houston won Sunday as a -225 favorite with Gerrit Cole, and the game pushed an over/under of eight runs.

Even though the Astros have won three of five games in this series, they're minus $65, based on $100 bets on each game.

Washington, meanwhile, with two wins, is plus $30 in this series.

Also, overs are 3-1-1 in this World Series.

With Sunday's win, Houston is 10-6 this postseason.

With Sunday's loss, the Nationals are 10-5 this postseason.

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Game 6 Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of Game 2 of this series, a 12-3 Washington victory.

Verlander by our strict standards, finished 24/34 on quality starts this season, but he's only 2/5 this postseason. Last Wednesday, in Game 2, he gave up four runs and seven hits through six innings and took the loss. So over his five starts in these playoffs, he's allowed 14 runs and 25 hits, including six home runs, through 30 1/3 innings, with 35 strikeouts and nine walks.

The Astros played 24-10 with Verlander during the regular season, but they're only 2-3 with him this postseason.

Strasburg finished 20/33 on quality starts this year, and he's 3/4 in these playoffs, along with a solid performance in relief in that wild-card victory over Milwaukee. Last Wednesday in Game 2, he held Houston to two runs and seven hits through six frames, picking up the W. So over his five appearances this postseason he's allowed just six ER and 25 hits through 28 innings, with 40 whiffs against only two walks.

The Nationals finished 21-12 with Strasburg this season, and they're 4-0 when he starts in this postseason.

Game 6 Batting Splits

Washington batted .258/.337/.448 against right-handed pitching this season. But while the Nationals scored 17 runs in winning the first two games of this series, they only scored a total of three runs in the three losses over the weekend.

Houston batted .274/.349/.492 against RH pitching this season, which helped this lineup rank as the best in the Majors in this split. And while the Astros only scored 11 runs through the first three games of this series, they scored 15 over the last two.

The Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen ranked among the worst in baseball this season, posting an ML-worst 5.66 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP while allowing an .800 OPS. Washington relievers then closed out eight straight victories by the Nationals through Game 2 of this Series but have allowed seven runs over seven innings the last two games.

The Astros bullpen posted a 3.75 ERA this season and a 1.20 WHIP while holding foes to a .694 OPS, helping this unit rank among the top two or three bullpens in baseball this year. Houston relievers have also allowed just one run over the last three games, covering 10 1/3 innings.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The visiting teams are 5-0 in this World Series.
  • Washington played 43-38 on the road this season.
  • Houston played an ML-best 60-21 at home this season.
  • Washington played 69-52 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Houston played 68-44 against RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders played 76-75 in Nationals games this season.
  • Unders played 84-71 in Astros games this season.
  • Unders played 39-37 in games played at Minute Maid Park this season.
  • Overs played 16-15 with Strasburg this season.
  • Unders played 22-11 with Verlander this season.

Nationals at Astros Prediction 10/29/19

We're gonna give Strasburg the edge in this pitching match-up, and while Houston gets the check-marks with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison, they're not enough to warrant a line so high. So we're sticking with the trend on the visiting team and taking Washington at the underdog price.

Free Pick: 
Take the Nationals +145