Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Betting predicitons

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Betting predicitons

Darin Zank
Date: August 23, 7:05 pm
Location: Camden Yards
TV: MASN2

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Blue Jays -126/Orioles +105
Total: 8.5

The Blue Jays continue their pursuit of a playoff berth and a series victory when they meet the Orioles again at Camden Yards Wednesday night. Newcomer Jack Flaherty makes his fourth start for Baltimore here against former Oriole Kevin Gausman for Toronto.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's baseball betting market opened Toronto and Gausman at around -130 over Baltimore and Flaherty, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then slid this game into a pick ‘em.

Blue Jays-Orioles Betting Preview

Toronto grabbed the opener of this series Tuesday night 6-3 in 10 innings. The Blue Jays led that game 3-1 through 4 1/2 innings, let Baltimore tie it with a couple runs in the bottom of the fifth, then later won it with three runs in the top of the tenth.

Tuesday's game was also lined as a pick ‘em and played over a total of eight runs when Toronto scored on a wild pitch with two outs in the top of the tenth.

With Tuesday's win the Blue Jays are 5-2 over their last seven games. At 70-56 overall Toronto trails Seattle by one game in the battle for the final American League wild-card spot.

With Tuesday's loss the Orioles are still 6-3 over their last nine games. At 77-48 overall Baltimore leads the American League by two games over second-place Tampa Bay.

The Orioles lead the season series with the Blue Jays eight games to three.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played 20 days ago in Toronto, a 6-1 Baltimore victory.

Flaherty is 1/3 on quality starts since coming over to the O's from St. Louis at the trade deadline. First he held these Blue Jays to one run through six innings in that 6-1 Orioles win. Then he gave up three runs in five innings in an 8-2 loss to Houston. And last Tuesday he got touched by San Diego for seven runs through just three frames of a 10-3 Orioles defeat.

The Cardinals, a team that's struggled all season long, actually played 13-7 with Flaherty before trading him away; Baltimore is 1-2 with him since.

Over two starts against Toronto this season, one with St. Louis back in April and the one earlier this month with the Orioles, Flaherty allowed just one run and four hits through 11 innings, with nine walks - yea, he walked seven in one game while allowing zero runs - against 12 strikeouts. His teams won both those games.

Gausman is running hot-‘n-cold as of late. Three starts ago, against this Baltimore outfit, he gave up three runs through 4 1/3 innings and took the L. Then he held Cleveland scoreless through seven innings in a 1-0 Blue Jays win. But then last Wednesday he got touched by Philadelphia for seven runs - five earned - and seven hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 9-4 Toronto defeat.

The Blue Jays are 12-12 with Gausman this season but only 2-6 his last eight times out.

Over two starts against the Orioles this season Gausman allowed five runs and 14 hits through 12 1/3 innings. Toronto lost both those games.

Splits With the Sticks

Toronto is batting .254 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .325 team OBP and a .416 team slugging percentage.

Baltimore is slashing .250/.314/.418 against RH pitching.

The Bullpens

The Orioles bullpen owns a 3.61 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP and a 2.87 K/BB ratio.

The Blue Jays pen, after throwing 5 1/3 scoreless innings Tuesday night, owns a 3.44 ERA, a ML-best 1.20 WHIP and a ML-best 3.24 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to think Toronto might own the best bullpen in Baseball.

MLB Betting Trends

Toronto is 38-29 on the road this season and 55-46 against right-handed starters.

Baltimore is 36-24 at home and 48-33 against RH starters.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 69-51 in Blue Jays games this season.
  • The overs are 66-53 in Orioles games.
  • The overs are 31-27 at Oriole Park this season.

Jays vs. Orioles Free Pick

We give Gausman the edge in the pitching match-up, in expectation of a bounce-back performance. We also give Toronto the edge in the bullpen comparison while the splits with the sticks come out about even. So we’re thinking the original line on this game was correct. That’s why we’re betting the Blue Jays Wednesday night.

Free Pick: Take the Jays
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