St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Pick 6/28/19

June 28, 10:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Padres -120/Cardinals +110

St. Louis and San Diego are both hovering around the .500 mark heading into the opener of this three-game series at Petco Park Friday night. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's MLB betting odds opened San Diego at around -120 over St. Louis, with an over/under of 8.5 runs, and both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

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Cardinals vs. Padres Set-Up

St. Louis just got swept two games at home by Oakland, losing Wednesday's series finale 2-0. The Cardinals then had Thursday off.

Just before that St. Louis lost the last game of a three-game series against the Angels. So the Cardinals lug a three-game losing streak into Friday night.

At 40-39 overall St. Louis trails the division-leading Cubs by three games in the NL Central and sits two games back of Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the National League wild-card race.

San Diego, meanwhile, just swept two games in Baltimore this week, winning Wednesday 10-5. The Padres then also had Thursday off.

Just before that, though, San Diego got swept three games in Pittsburgh. But just before that the Padres won four straight. So San Diego is 6-3 over its last nine games.

At 40-40 overall the Padres trail the division-leading Dodgers by 14.5 games in the NL West, but they're only 2.5 games out in that NL wild-card race.

This series is the second meeting between these teams this season. Back in April the Padres took two of three games from the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

Friday's Starting Arms

Lefty Lauer, by our stringent standards, is 5/15 on quality starts this season, but three for his last four. Last Friday he held Pittsburgh to two runs – one earned – and five hits through seven innings, although the Padres lost that game 2-1. And five times in his last seven outings he threw at least 5 1/3 innings while allowing just one earned run.

San Diego is 7-8 with Lauer this season, and while they're 0-3 over his last three starts, that's not his fault.

In two starts last year against St. Louis Lauer allowed eight runs and 15 hits, including five home runs, through eight innings. The Padres managed to split those two games.

Wacha is just 4/12 on quality starts this year, but two for his last three. Last Friday he held the Angels to one run and five hits through six innings of a 5-1 St. Louis victory, which was a nice rebound effort after giving up five ER in four innings against the Mets his previous time out.

St. Louis is 6-6 with Wacha this season, 2-1 over his last three starts.

Over his last two starts against San Diego, one earlier this year and one previous year, Wacha allowed just two runs and six hits through 11 2/3 innings. Somehow the Cardinals lost both those games.

Friday's Batting Splits

St. Louis is batting .229/.309/.404 against left-handed pitching this season. But this lineup has also scored a total of just 24 runs over its last eight games.

San Diego is batting .243/.304/.424 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored 28 runs over its last three games.

The Bullpens

The Cardinals bullpen owns a 3.98 ERA this season and a 1.16 WHIP while allowing a .663 OPS. But this unit also just lost closer Jordan Hicks for the season to an elbow injury.

The Padres pen owns a 4.88 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP while allowing a .763 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 40-36 in Cardinals games this season.
  • Overs are 39-34 in Padres games this season.
  • Unders are 22-17 in games played at Petco Park this season.
  • Overs are 2-1 in Cardinals-Padres games this season.

Cardinals at Padres Prediction 06/28/2019

Based on recent track records against these opponents, we give Wacha a short edge in the pitching match-up. And while San Diego might own a short edge with the sticks, the St. Louis bullpen still gets the check-mark even without Hicks. We like the Cardinals here at the underdog price.

Free Pick: 
Take the Cardinals +110