St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick - Odds - Expert Preview 4/29/23

St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick - Odds - Expert Preview 4/29/23

Deborah
Date: April 29, 9:10 pm
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: FS1

Betting Odds

Moneyline: St. L +130/LAD -150
Total: 8

After taking the opener of this three-game affair Friday night the Dodgers shoot for the series victory Saturday night at Dodger Stadium. Clay Kershaw takes his turn for LA here against fellow lefty Jordan Montgomery for St. Louis.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s baseball betting market opened Los Angels and Kershaw at around -155 over St. Louis and Montgomery, with an over/under of eight runs. Early betting action then dipped the Dodgers a nickel to -150.

Cardinals-Dodgers Betting Preview

Los Angeles took the opener of this series Friday night 7-3. The Dodgers spotted St. Louis the first two runs of the game, then scored two runs of their own in the bottom of the first inning, two more in the third and held on from there.

LA won Friday as a -130 favorite on the dime line and covered against the run line at a price of +140.

Also, Friday’s game played over a total of nine when the Cardinals scored a meaningless run in the top of the ninth.

With Friday’s win the Dodgers are 4-2 over their last six games.

With Friday’s loss St. Louis is 1-4 over its last five games.

Last year Los Angeles took the season series from the Cardinals four games to two.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last September in LA, a 6-2 Dodgers win.

Kershaw is 4/5 on quality starts this season and three for his last three. Last Sunday he allowed three runs but just one was earned through six innings in a 7-3 Los Angeles victory over the Cubs. And over his last three starts he’s allowed just three ER and 11 hits through 19 innings, with three walks against 19 strikeouts.

The Dodgers are 4-1 with Kershaw this season and that’s exactly what they should be, based on his performances.

In his only start against St. Louis last season, that LA home win, Kershaw got staked to an early lead, gave up just two runs and only needed 88 pitches to get 18 outs.

Montgomery is 3/5 on quality starts this year and three for his last four. Monday he held San Francisco to one unearned run and five hits through six innings of a 4-0 Cardinals loss. Just before that Arizona got him for seven runs and 10 hits in five innings but he gave two good outings just prior to that.

St. Louis is 2-3 with Montgomery this season but should probably be 3-2.

In his only career start against the Dodgers, that Cardinals loss last September, Montgomery got clipped for six runs and three ding-dongs through four innings and took the L.

Splits With the Sticks

St. Louis is batting a ML-best .321 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .385 team OBP and a .538 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the top two or three in the Majors in this split.

Los Angeles is “slashing” .165/.275/.354 against left-handed pitching. Numbers like those cause us to rate this line-up among the bottom five or so in Baseball in this split.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 5.05 ERA this season, along with a 1.50 WHIP and a 2.73 K/BB ratio.

The Cardinals pen owns a 3.93 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP and a 3.22 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

St. Louis is 5-9 on the road this season but 3-1 against left-handed starters.

Los Angeles is 7-6 at home but 1-6 against left-handed starters.

Totals Report

The unders are 14-12 in Cardinals games this season.

The overs are 16-10 in Dodgers games.

The unders are 7-6 at Dodger Stadium this season.

Cardinals vs Dodgers Free Pick

Kershaw owns the check-mark in the pitching match-up but St. Louis, with its right-handed heavy line-up, owns edges in both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. Will the Cardinals eventually pull themselves out of the doldrums? Yes, we believe they will. And we like the betting value with St. Louis catching an underdog price Saturday night.

Free Pick: Take St. Louis +130
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