San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Betting Analysis & Predictions

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves Betting Analysis & Predictions

Jeff Scott
Date: April 9, 7:08 pm
Location: Truist Park
TV: MLBTV

Betting Odds

Moneyline: SD +102/Atl -112
Total: 9

<p>After taking two of the first three games of this four-game set in Atlanta, the Padres seek the series victory Sunday night. Veteran newcomer Seth Lugo gets the start here for San Diego against young lefty Dylan Dodd for the Braves.</p>
<p>Which way are we going here for our free baseball betting pick?</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Odds</h2>
<p>Sunday's baseball betting lines opened this game at right around a pick 'em, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then edged the Braves into -120 favorites.</p>
<h2>Padres-Braves MLB Betting Preview </h2>
<p>Atlanta took the opener of this series Thursday night 7-6, but San Diego won Friday's game 5-4, then took Saturday's game 4-1. The Padres won Friday at a pick 'em on the daily dime line, then cashed in Saturday as +140 underdogs against Charlie Morton.</p>
<p>With Saturday's victory, San Diego is 5-2 over its last seven games.</p>
<p>With Saturday's loss, Atlanta is 4-3 over its last seven games.</p>
<p>The Padres won 89 games last year and reached the National League championship series. This season they're playing against a "season wins" Over/Under of 94.</p>
<p>The Braves won 101 games last year but lost to Philadelphia in a divisional-round playoff series. This season Atlanta's playing against a wins O/U of 95.5.</p>
<p>San Diego took the season series from the Braves last year four games to three.</p>
<h2>Saturday's Pitching Match-Up</h2>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/579214&quot; title="Dylan Dodd Pitching Stats">Rookie lefty Dodd </a>is making his second career start Sunday night. Tuesday, in his ML debut, he held St. Louis to one run and six hits through five innings, with zero walks and three strikeouts, in a 4-1 Atlanta victory.</p>
<p>Dodd, a 3rd-round draft pick just two years ago, earned a shot with the Big Club by going 12-9 with a 3.36 ERA at three levels of the Minors last year.</p>
<p>Obviously, this will be Dodd's first-ever action against San Diego.</p>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/79721&quot; title="Seth Lugo Pitching Game Logs">Former Met Lugo</a> is also making his second start of this season. Last Sunday, he held Colorado to one run and four hits through seven innings, with zero walks and seven whiffs, of a 3-1 Padres victory.</p>
<p>Over the previous two seasons pitching exclusively in relief for New York, Lugo posted ERAs of 3.50 and 3.60 over a total of 111 innings.</p>
<p>Last year over seven appearances against the Braves, Lugo allowed four runs and seven hits through nine innings, with one walk against seven K's.</p>
<h2>Splits With the Sticks</h2>
<p>San Diego batted .245 against left-handed pitching last season, with a .319 team OBP and a .386 team slugging percentage.</p>
<p>Atlanta slashed .249/.310/.443 against right-handed pitching last season.</p>
<h2>The Bullpens</h2>
<p>The Braves bullpen posted a 3.03 ERA last season, along with a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.21 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those led us to rank this unit among the top handful of bullpens in Baseball.</p>
<p>The Padres pen put up a 3.83 ERA last year, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 2.94 K/BB ratio.</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Trends</h2>
<p>San Diego played 31-23 against left-handed starters last season.</p>
<p>Atlanta played 64-44 against right-handed starters last season.</p>
<h2>Totals Report</h2>
<ul>
<li>The Overs are 5-4 in Padres games this season.</li>
<li>The Unders are 6-3 in Braves games this season.</li>
<li>The Unders played 41-38 at Truist Park last season.</li>
</ul>

Padres at Braves Pick 4/9/23

We give Lugo the edge in the pitching match-up because he’s at least a known quantity, and his overall career numbers ain’t bad. But from there, we give Atlanta edges in both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. Also, we figure the Braves are good for the split of this series. We’re betting on Atlanta Sunday night.

Free Pick: Take Atlanta -112
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