Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Pick, Odds, Analysis

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Pick, Odds, Analysis

Darin Zank
Date: August 20, 7:00 pm
Location: Bowman Field
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Phil -210/Wash +190
Total: 9

After splitting a pair of high-scoring games in DC to begin this series, the Phillies and Nationals meet for a rubber match in the Little League Classic game at Williamsport, PA, Sunday night. Zack Wheeler goes for Philly here against the generous Trevor Williams for Washington.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday's baseball betting market opened Philadelphia, the visiting team for this game, at around -210 over Washington, with an over/under of nine runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Phillies-Nationals Betting Preview

Washington took the first game of this series in DC Friday night 8-7, but Philadelphia bounced back to take Saturday's game 12-3. The Nationals won Friday as +145 underdogs against Michael Lorenzen, who tossed a no-hitter his previous time out, while the Phillies won Saturday as -145 favorites.

And both games played over their totals.

Philadelphia now leads the season series with Washington seven games to five.

With Saturday's win, the Phillies are only 2-4 over their last six games. But at 67-56 overall, the defending National League champs still lead the NL wild-card race.

Meanwhile, with Saturday's loss, the Nationals are 5-2 over their last seven games. At 56-68 overall, Washington trails the Cubs by eight games in the battle for the final NL wild-card spot, but it also only needs five more wins to play over its season O/U, which was 60.

Sunday's Pitching Match-Up

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played two weeks ago in Philadelphia, an 8-4 Phillies victory.

Williams is 0 for his last nine on quality starts. Last Sunday against Oakland, he allowed five runs and three home runs through only 4 1/3 innings, although Washington rallied late to win that game 8-7. And over his last four starts he's been tagged for 20 runs and 30 hits through 19 innings.

The Nationals are 12-12 with Williams this season, although 10-14 would probably be closer to the truth.

Over three starts already this season against Philadelphia, Williams allowed 13 runs and 20 hits, including seven dingers, through 15 1/3 innings. Washington lost two of those three games, with the overs going 2-0-1.

Wheeler is five for his last six on quality starts. Tuesday against Toronto, he gave up just one run and three hits through seven frames, although the Phillies lost that game 2-1. And over his last six starts, he's allowed just 11 runs and 28 hits through 39 2/3 innings, with seven walks against 41 strikeouts.

Philadelphia is 15-9 with Wheeler this year, 9-3 his last 12 times out.

Over three starts already this season against the Nationals, Wheeler allowed 14 runs and 22 hits through 14 2/3 innings. The Phillies managed to win two of those three games, and all three games played over on the totals.

Splits With the Sticks

Philadelphia is batting .257 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .327 team OBP and a .420 team slugging percentage. The Phillies have also scored 28 runs over their last three games.

Washington is slashing .252/.312/.387 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Nationals bullpen owns a 5.22 ERA this season, along with a 1.45 WHIP and a 2.01 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the worst two or three bullpens in Baseball.

The Phillies pen owns a 3,71 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.70 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia is 46-39 against right-handed starters this season.

Washington is 35-43 against RH starters.

Totals Report

The Unders are 60-52 in Phillies games this season.

The Unders are 61-58 in Nationals games.

The Overs are 6-4 in Phillies-Nationals games this season.

Phillies vs. Nats Free Pick 8/20/23

Wheeler owns a solid advantage in the pitching match-up, despite his recent performances against this Washington line-up. From there, Philadelphia also owns the edge with the sticks, while the Nationals own one of the worst bullpens in Baseball. So we like the Phillies here. But we don't like that price. So, in knowing the visitors will bat nine times, we'll play Philly against the run line, giving the run and a half at -130.
 

Free Pick: Take the Phillies -1.5 -139
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