Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview & Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies at Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview & Best Bet

Darin Zank
Date: August 16, 7:07 pm
Location: Rogers Centre
TV: MLBN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Phil +135/Tor -155
Total: 8

In the second game of this quick two-game series, the Blue Jays are aiming to sweep the Phillies after their victory in the opener. Kevin Gausman will be on the mound for the Blue Jays, facing off against Aaron Nola from the Phillies.

MLB Betting Odds

At the outset, Toronto and Gausman were favored at around -145 against Philly and Nola, with the over/under set at eight runs. Subsequent betting movement witnessed the Blue Jays' odds increase to -155. Additionally, the Blue Jays were favored at about -110 when giving the run and a half on the run line.

Team Analysis

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto secured the victory in the series opener against the Phillies with a 2-1 score. The Blue Jays scored the eventual game-winning run in the bottom of the eighth inning on a bases-loaded hit-by-pitch. Despite a recent record of 3-4 over their last seven games, the Blue Jays maintain an overall record of 67-54, placing them third in the American League playoff standings.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are currently on a three-game losing streak, although their overall record of 65-55 positions them at the forefront of the National League wild-card race.

Pitching Match-Up

Toronto Blue Jays - Kevin Gausman

Gausman has been performing well in his recent starts, having secured victories in two of his last three outings. His most recent appearance against Cleveland resulted in a 1-0 victory for Toronto, with Gausman holding Cleveland scoreless over seven innings. Over his last four starts, he allowed just four runs and 17 hits in 17 1/3 innings, alongside five walks and 21 strikeouts. Although the Blue Jays hold a 12-11 record with Gausman this season, his individual performance suggests a more favorable outcome.

Philadelphia Phillies - Aaron Nola

Nola's recent performance has been inconsistent, as he failed to meet the criteria for a quality start in his last three outings. While he held Washington to one run and five hits in his most recent appearance, he fell short of a quality start by just one inning. In his two preceding starts, he allowed 10 earned runs and 17 hits in a pair of Phillies defeats. With an overall record of 12-12 this year, the Phillies' performance with Nola on the mound has been relatively stable.

Hitting and Bullpen Analysis

Hitting Stats

The Phillies possess a batting average of .255 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .325 team OBP and a .410 team slugging percentage. Despite these statistics, the Phillies have struggled to score runs in their recent games. On the other hand, the Blue Jays exhibit a slash line of .255/.326/.414 against right-handed pitching. However, the Blue Jays' lineup is dealing with the absence of Bo Bichette and a questionable status for Matt Chapman.

Bullpen Performance

Toronto's bullpen boasts a 3.50 ERA this season, accompanied by an exceptional 1.20 WHIP and an impressive 3.18 K/BB ratio. The Phillies' bullpen, with a 3.79 ERA, holds a 1.32 WHIP and a 2.66 K/BB ratio. Both bullpens are rated among the top units in the league.

MLB Betting Trends and Totals Report

MLB Betting Trends

The Phillies hold a road record of 31-30 this season and a record of 44-38 against right-handed starters. Toronto, while performing well at home with a record of 31-26, also demonstrates a strong performance against right-handed starters with a record of 53-44.

Totals Report

In the Phillies' games this season, the unders have prevailed in 59-49 matchups. Similarly, the unders dominate in Blue Jays games with a record of 66-48. Rogers Centre has seen a preference for unders this season, with a record of 34-20.

Phillies at Jays Free Pick 8/16/23

With Gausman exhibiting strong form and Toronto maintaining an advantage in the bullpen comparison, along with the Phillies' recent struggles to score runs, the Blue Jays emerge as the preferred choice for this matchup. We anticipate Toronto completing the sweep on Wednesday night.

Free Pick: Take Toronto minus the big number
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