Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick - Betting Lines 5/1/23

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers Free Pick - Betting Lines 5/1/23

Deborah
Date: May 1, 10:10 pm
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: SNLA

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Phil +145/LAD -165
Total: 8.5

National League pennant contenders meet when the Dodgers and Phillies commence a three-game series in LA Monday night. Tony Gonsolin gets the call for Los Angeles here against Taijuan Walker for Philly.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s baseball betting market opened Los Angeles at around -155 over Philadelphia, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Dodgers a dime to -165.

Phillies-Dodgers Betting Preview

Philadelphia just took two of three games at Houston over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 4-3. Just before that the Phillies took two of three games from Seattle and just before that they took three of four from Colorado. Going back a bit further Philly is 4-0 over its last four series and 11-4 over its last 15 games.

At 15-14 overall the Phillies are four games behind first-place Atlanta in the NL East.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, just swept three games at home from struggling St. Louis, winning Sunday’s series finale 6-3. Just before that the Dodgers lost two of three games at Pittsburgh and just before that they took three of four at the Cubs. So LA is 2-1 over its last three series and 7-3 over its last 10 games.

At 16-13 overall the Dodgers are tied with Arizona for first place in the NL West.

Last year Philadelphia took the season series from Los Angeles four games to three.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Gonsolin, injured during spring training, just made his season debut last Wednesday, holding the Pirates scoreless on two hits and three walks through 3 1/3 innings of an 8-1 Los Angeles loss. Gonsolin needed 65 pitches, only 39 of which were strikes, to get those 10 outs.

Last year Gonsolin hit 11/24 on quality starts, as the Dodgers played 19-5 with him.

Over two career starts against Philadelphia, one last year and one in 2021, Gonsolin allowed two runs and seven hits through 9 2/3 innings, with four walks against 12 strikeouts. LA split those two games.

Walker is 2/5 on quality starts this year. Last Wednesday against the Mariners he gave up five runs and two home runs through just four innings, although the Phillies came back to win that game 6-5. And over his two starts previous to that he allowed just three runs and nine hits through 12 1/3 innings of a pair of Philly victories.

Philadelphia is 3-2 with Walker this season, although that’s a game better than they should be, based on his performances.

Over two starts last year against the Dodgers while pitching for the Mets Walker gave up five runs and 12 hits through 11 innings. New York lost both those games.

Splits With the Sticks

Philadelphia, even down two key sticks, is batting .272 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .332 team OBP and a .445 team slugging percentage.

Los Angeles is slashing .242/.334/.464 against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Dodgers bullpen owns a 4.76 ERA this season, along with a 1.45 WHIP and a 2.85 K/BB ratio.

The Phillies pen owns a 4.42 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP and a 2.43 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Philadelphia is 7-9 on the road this season but 12-9 against right-handed starters.

Los Angeles is 9-6 at home and 14-7 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

The unders are 17-12 in Phillies games this season.

The overs are 16-12 in Dodgers games.

The unders are 9-6 at Dodger Stadium this season.

Phillies at Dodgers Pick 05/01/23

We give Gonsolin the edge in this pitching match-up because he was so darn good last year. From there we call both the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison about even. But our belief is Philadelphia has been playing a bit over its head so far this season, somehow hitting and winning without Harper and Hoskins, while Los Angeles is under-performing a bit. We believe those trends will revert themselves, possibly as soon as this series, or even Monday night. We’re betting the Dodgers to take the opener of this series.

Free Pick: Take the LAD -165
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