NY Yankees vs. Houston Astros Odds & Free Pick

June 30, 6:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

NYY -123/HOU +113
7.5ov -119

Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino (4-2. 3.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) vs. Luis Garcia (5-5, 3.68 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)

Iron Sharpening Iron

Houston has to be wondering what sadist forced them to go through this kind of schedule this week, as the Astros have had to visit both the Yankees and the Mets (i.e., the two best teams in baseball), then turned around and came home to face the Yankees yet again. However, so far, the Astros are passing the test and proving themselves a real contender to claim the AL pennant. The race is assumed to be New York's to lose given the Yankees' gaudy 56-20 record, but Houston took two of three from the Bronx Bombers and then took both games from the Mets in Queens. The Astros are the one team in the American League that isn't going to show any intimidation against the Yankees: they genuinely believe they're good enough to win against New York when the teams come head-to-head.

See It and Drive It

Most home run-hitting teams are not particularly good at waiting for the right pitch to come. The typical home run hitter is a free swinger, eventually hitting 30 home runs because they offset the number of bad swings on the ball with enough good swings to knock a few baseballs out of the building. That isn't the Yankees by any stretch of the imagination. New York happens to lead the majors in home runs with 126, but the Yankees are also the best in MLB at drawing walks. With 289 free passes, the Yankees get on base more than anyone in baseball, which says that when they do put a good swing on the ball, it's when they actually saw the pitch fast enough to make that judgment. Only the Braves have a higher slugging percentage than the Yankees, so when they pull the trigger on a pitch, they're doing so for a very good reason. That can be very difficult to face as a pitcher, as there are no easy outs in the lineup to give a pitcher a breather. When you have to keep worrying about who you're facing one through nine, that pressure adds up in a hurry.

End of the Month Issues

Maybe Luis Severino just doesn't like the time of the month when bills are due because, for some reason, he pulls out his clunkers are the end of the month. For most of the year, Severino has proven a reliable starter and a strong strikeout pitcher, but when the month comes to an end, he's been replacement level at best. In April, he had his first start where he gave up more than three earned runs and needed the offense to bail him out in a 12-8 win over Baltimore. In May, he gave up four earned runs again, this time ending up a loser to Tampa Bay by a 4-2 count. This time, he seems to be getting started early, as he's thrown two consecutive weak starts against Toronto and Houston. There's no shame in having problems with either the Blue Jays or the Astros (or the Rays, for that matter), but Severino gave up a season-worst five runs in five innings to Toronto and didn't have things under control. Against a team like Houston, relying on the offense won't always work, as Severino found out the hard way in a 3-1 loss at home to the Astros last time out.

Betting Trends

  • The Yankees have won six straight Thursday games.
  • The Yankees are 14-2 in their past 16 road games against a right-handed starter.
  • The Astros are 22-7 in their past 29 Thursday games.
  • The Astros are 36-16 in their past 52 overall.
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the Yankees' past six overall.
  • The over is 6-2-1 in the Yankees' past nine road games.
  • The under is 8-1 in the Astros' past nine Thursday games.
  • The under is 6-2-1 in the Astros' past nine against the AL East.
  • The Astros are 13-6 in the teams' past 19 meetings in Houston.

Weather Report

Eighty-two degree temperatures put this close to the number needed to keep the roof open, but with the mercury pushing a bit too high, the Astros will likely close the roof.

Yankees vs. Astros Predictions 6/30/22

For me, the lack of intimidation on the part of the Astros is enormous in this spot. Houston is also playing very good baseball at the moment and is likely to keep that rolling after besting the Yankees in the Bronx and sweeping the Mets in Queens. This is a chance to really gain momentum and confidence for Houston, and I think they can do exactly that. I'll back the Astros.    

Free Pick: 
Take Houston +113