Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Prediction & Analysis

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners Prediction & Analysis

Darin Zank
Date: July 17, 9:40 pm
Location: T-Mobile Park
TV: FS1

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Minn +110/Sea -130
Runline: 7

American League playoff hopefuls will clash as the Minnesota Twins (48-46) and the Seattle Mariners (46-46) kick off a four-game series in Seattle on Monday night. The Mariners will send Logan Gilbert to the mound, while the Twins will rely on Sonny Gray.

MLB Betting Odds

The opening MLB betting odds for this game favored the Seattle Mariners and Logan Gilbert at around -120, with the Minnesota Twins and Sonny Gray as underdogs at +110. The over/under line was set at 7 runs. Early betting action shifted the odds slightly, with the Mariners moving to -130.

Twins-Mariners Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins enter this series after completing a three-game sweep against the Oakland Athletics over the weekend, winning the series finale 5-4. Prior to the All-Star break, the Twins suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. However, just before that, they swept a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners.

Over the last four series, the Twins have performed well, winning three of them and going 8-4 in their last 12 games. With a 48-46 overall record, they currently lead the AL Central division by 2.5 games over the second-place Cleveland team.

The Seattle Mariners recently dropped two of three games to the Detroit Tigers over the weekend but avoided the sweep by winning the series finale 2-0. However, just before that, they had an impressive three-game series victory against the Houston Astros and a two-game series win against the San Francisco Giants.

Similar to the Twins, the Mariners have performed well in recent weeks, going 3-1 in their last four series and 8-4 in their last 12 games. With a 46-46 overall record, the Mariners are currently in ninth place in the American League playoff standings, trailing the sixth-place Boston team by three games.

This series marks the first meeting between the Twins and the Mariners this season. Last year, the Twins won the season series against the Mariners, taking four out of the seven matchups.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Logan Gilbert has recorded 10 quality starts out of 18 this season, including three in his last four outings. In his most recent start eight days ago, he held the Houston Astros to one run and three hits over seven innings, contributing to a 3-1 victory for the Mariners. Over his last four starts, Gilbert has allowed just six runs and 18 hits across 29 innings.

Despite Gilbert's solid performances, the Mariners have only managed a 9-9 record in games he has started this season. However, this record may be slightly worse than expected given his pitching performances.

In his two career starts against the Minnesota Twins, both occurring last season, Gilbert allowed just one run and seven hits over 11 innings. He registered 13 strikeouts against only one walk, and the Mariners emerged victorious in both games.

Sonny Gray has struggled to produce quality starts this year, recording only five out of 18. In his most recent outing nine days ago against the Baltimore Orioles, Gray gave up six runs and six hits over six innings in a 6-2 loss for the Twins. However, in his two starts prior to that, Gray performed well, holding opponents to three runs and nine hits over 12 2/3 innings.

Despite Gray's solid performances in his last two starts against the Mariners, where he allowed only two runs and seven hits over 9 2/3 innings, the Twins have struggled to produce wins when Gray takes the mound this season. Their record in games started by Gray stands at 8-10, which is slightly worse than expected.

Splits With the Sticks

The Minnesota Twins have recorded a .237 batting average against right-handed pitching this season, accompanied by a .317 team on-base percentage and a .414 team slugging percentage.

The Seattle Mariners have produced a .227/.312/.389 slash line against right-handed pitching.

The Bullpens

The Mariners' bullpen owns a 3.62 ERA this season, with a 1.27 WHIP and a 2.94 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB).

The Twins' bullpen has recorded a 3.66 ERA, with a 1.22 WHIP and a 2.56 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

The Minnesota Twins have been fairly even on the road this season, posting a 22-24 record. They have performed decently against right-handed starting pitchers, going 37-35 in those matchups.

The Seattle Mariners have been slightly better at home, with a 25-22 record. They have a similar record against right-handed starting pitchers, going 35-34 in those games.

Totals Report

The under has hit in 48 of the Twins' games this season, while the under has prevailed in 46 of the Mariners' games. Notably, the over has hit in 24 of the games played at T-Mobile Park this season.

Twins vs. Mariners Free Pick 7/17/23

In the pitching match-up, Logan Gilbert holds the edge, and the Mariners have a slight advantage in the bullpen comparison. Although the Twins have a slight edge in hitting, we expect the Mariners to make a strong push and eventually secure a playoff spot, while the Twins may begin to fade. Therefore, my free MLB pick is to bet on the Seattle Mariners for Monday night's game.

Free Pick: Take Seattle -130
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