Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick 7/1/19

July 1, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Reds -105/Brewers -105

Cincinnati just took a series from one NL Central contender and now looks to take another when it hosts Milwaukee for a four-game divisional rivalry series beginning Monday night. Which way are we going here with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday's MLB betting odds opened Cincinnati and Mahle at around -110 over Milwaukee and Houser, with an over/under of 10 runs. Early betting action then dipped this game down to about a pick 'em at most betting sites.

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Brewers vs. Reds Set-Up

Milwaukee just took two of three games at home from Pittsburgh over the weekend, winning Sunday's series rubber match 2-1. The Brewers only scored a total of seven runs in that series, but Milwaukee pitching only allowed five runs.

Just before that the Brewers dropped two of three at home to Seattle, while just before that they won the last two games of a four-game series with these Reds. So Milwaukee is 5-3 over its last eight games.

At 45-39 overall the Brewers are tied with the Cubs for the lead in both the NL Central and in the National League wild-card race.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from the Cubs over the weekend, winning Sunday's series rubber match 8-6. But just before that the Reds got swept two games by the Angels, and just before that they lost the last two games of that series against this Milwaukee team. So Cincy is 2-5 over its last seven games.

At 38-43 overall the Reds trail the Brewers and Cubs by 5.5 games in the NL Central, and they're 4.5 games behind Philadelphia and Colorado in the battle for the second NL wild-card slot.

The Brew Crew leads the season series with Cincinnati six games to three.

Monday's Starting Arms

Mahle is just 4/15 on quality starts this season and only one for his last six. Last Tuesday he gave up four runs and six hits, including a couple of homers, through five innings of a 5-1 Reds loss to the Angels. And over his last six starts, he's allowed 20 earned runs and 32 hits, including eight dingers, through 31 1/3 innings.

Cincy is just 4-11 with Mahle this season, 1-3 over his last four starts.

In two starts last year against the Brewers Mahle allowed three ER and 13 hits through 10 2/3 innings, with 18 strikeouts. The Reds split those two games.

Rookie righty Houser is 0/3 on quality starts this season, pitching as an "opener," to go along with 14 appearances in relief. Last Wednesday he gave up three runs on four hits and three walks through just two innings of a 4-2 Milwaukee loss to the Mariners. But over his 11 appearances before that, he allowed only one ER and 11 hits through 21 1/3 innings.

The Brewers are 1-2 in Houser's starts this season.

In two appearances against Cincinnati this year Houser allowed zero runs and one hit through three innings.

Monday's Batting Splits

Milwaukee is batting .249/.332/.443 against right-handed pitching this season. But this lineup has also scored a total of just 16 runs over its last six games.

Cincinnati is batting .229/.301/.411 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.12 ERA this season and a 1.25 WHIP while allowing a .679 OPS.

The Reds pen owns a 3.73 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while allowing a .692 OPS.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 45-36 in Brewers games this season.
  • Unders are a lopsided 51-28 in Reds games this season.
  • Unders are 24-14 in games played at GABP this season.
  • Unders are 5-4 in Brewers-Reds games this season.
  • Unders are a combined 13-4 in games started by Mahle and Houser this season.

Brewers at Reds Prediction 07/1/2019

Milwaukee is going better than Cincinnati at the moment, and while it's not scoring runs as it should perhaps a visit to Great American Ball Park will help. And while they're going with an "opener" Monday the Brewers bullpen has been better as of late. We're betting the Brew Crew for our free MLB pick in this spot.

Free Pick: 
Take Milwaukee -105

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