Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox Odds, Analysis & Best Bet

Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox Odds, Analysis & Best Bet

Darin Zank
Date: July 29, 7:10 pm
Location: Fenway Park
TV: NESN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Mil -161 / Bos +148
Total: 9ov -115

<p>The NL Central-leading Brewers make a rare trip to Boston for a three-game weekend series with the struggling Red Sox at Fenway Park starting Friday night. A hot Brandon Woodruff gets the call for the Brew Crew here against rookie righty Brayan Bello for Boston.</p>
<p>Here's how we homeworked this game to come up with our <b>free baseball betting pick</b>.</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Odds</h2>
<p>Friday's baseball betting lines opened Milwaukee and Woodruff at around -155 over Boston and Bello, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped the Brewers to -160.</p>
<h2>Brewers-Red Sox MLB Betting Preview </h2>
<p>Milwaukee just swept two games at home from Minnesota, winning 7-6 Tuesday and 10-4 Wednesday. The Brewers then enjoyed Thursday off.</p>
<p>Just before that, the Brewers took three of four games from Colorado. So Milwaukee is 5-1 over its last six games.</p>
<p>At 55-44 overall, the Brewers lead the NL Central by three games over second-place St. Louis.</p>
<p>Boston, meanwhile, just split four games at home with Cleveland, winning Thursday's series finale 4-2. Just before that, the Red Sox got swept three games by Toronto, and just before that; they lost two of three at the Yankees. Going back about a month, Boston is 0-6-2 over its last eight series and 8-19 over its last 27 games.</p>
<p>At 50-50 overall, the Red Sox are probably dead in the AL East, and they now trail Tampa Bay by 3.5 games in the battle for the third and final American League wild-card spot.</p>
<p>These former division rivals - Milwaukee played in the AL East from 1972-93 - last met back in 2017, and that's already a long time ago for both these teams.</p>
<h2>Friday's Pitching Match-Up</h2>
<p><a class="advblue"href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/456326&quot; title="Brayan Bello Pitching Game Logs">Bello</a> is 0/3 on quality starts this season after getting called up from Triple-A Worcester a month ago. Last Saturday against Toronto, he gave up five runs and nine hits through four innings of an 8-4 Boston loss. And over his three starts, he's allowed 14 runs and 22 hits through 12 innings, with eight walks against nine strikeouts.</p>
<p>The Red Sox are 0-3 with Bello this season, and they should be, based on his performances.</p>
<p>This will be Bello's first career action against Milwaukee.</p>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/125810&quot; title="Brandon Woodruff Pitching Game Stats">Woodruff</a> is only 4/14 on quality starts this year, but he's been pretty good as of late. Last Saturday, he held Colorado to one run and four hits through six innings, with one walk against eight whiffs, in a 9-4 Brewers win. And over his last five starts, he's limited opponents to seven runs and 21 hits through 28 2/3 innings, with nine walks against 39 K's.</p>
<p>Milwaukee is 9-5 with Woodruff this season, and that also sounds about right, based on his performances.</p>
<p>This will be Woodruff's first career start against Boston.</p>
<h2>Splits With the Sticks </h2>
<p>Milwaukee is batting .244 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .322 team OBP and a .434 team slugging percentage. The Brewers have also scored at least five runs six times over their last seven games.</p>
<p>Boston is slashing .252/.311/.405 against right-handed pitching. The Red Sox have also been held to three runs or less five times over their last nine games.</p>
<h2>The Bullpens </h2>
<p>The Boston bullpen owns a 4.31 ERA this season, along with a 1.30 WHIP.</p>
<p>The Milwaukee pen owns a 3.89 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.<br />
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<span style="font-size:16px; color:#008000;">Get more details:</span> <a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1603576">Milwaukee at Boston 7/29/22 Betting Stats</a>
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<h2>MLB Betting Trends </h2>
<p>The Brewers are 29-24 on the road this season and 40-28 against right-handed starters.</p>
<p>The Red Sox are 25-25 at home and 34-43 against right-handed starters.</p>
<h2>Totals Report</h2>
<ul>
<li>The Over is 50-43 in Brewers games this season.</li>
<li>The Under is 46-45 in Red Sox games.</li>
<li>The Total is split 23-23 at Fenway Park this season.</li>
</ul>

Brewers at Red Sox Prediction 7/29/22

Woodruff gets a solid check-mark in the pitching match-up against the rookie. Milwaukee also owns the hotter bats and the better bullpen. So we like the Brewers here. We also like taking chances. So in knowing the visitors will bat nine times,  we'll play Milwaukee against the run line at a price of around +100. 

Free Pick: Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs
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