Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Free Pick

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves Free Pick

Darin Zank
Date: July 28, 7:20 pm
Location: Truist Park
TV: MLBN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Mil +160/Atl -180
Total: 10

Brewers-Braves Betting Preview

National League division leaders clash when the Braves and Brewers open a three-game series in suburban Atlanta Friday night. Yonny Chirinos, newly acquired by the Braves, gets the call against Adrian Houser for the Brewers.

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s baseball betting market opened with Atlanta at around -170 over Milwaukee, with an over/under set at 10 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Braves to -180.

Team Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are coming off a successful series against Cincinnati, winning the rubber match 3-0. They now lead the NL Central by a game and a half over the Reds. The team has performed well in their recent games, going 4-1 over their last five series and 11-5 over their last 16 games.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves just got swept in a two-game series against Boston, and they hold a 6.5-game lead over the Dodgers for the best record in the National League. The team is 1-3 over their last four series and 4-8 over their last 12 games.

Pitching Match-Up

Atlanta Braves - Yonny Chirinos

Chirinos is making his first start for Atlanta after being acquired from Tampa Bay. He had a tough outing in his final appearance for the Rays, giving up three solo home runs in a loss to Kansas City. Over his last five appearances, he allowed 20 runs, 18 earned, and 24 hits in 24 1/3 innings. Tampa Bay went 1-3 with Chirinos before letting him go.

Milwaukee Brewers - Adrian Houser

Houser is 3/11 on quality starts this season and has been showing improvement lately. In his last start against the Braves, he allowed three runs and six hits through six innings in a 4-3 Brewers win. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed nine runs and 25 hits in 22 2/3 innings, with eight walks against 24 strikeouts. The Brewers are 6-5 with Houser this season.

Hitting and Bullpen Analysis

Hitting Stats

The Brewers are batting .233 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .313 team on-base percentage and a .378 team slugging percentage. The Braves are slashing .259/.331/.474 against right-handed pitching.

Bullpen Performance

The Braves' bullpen owns a 3.54 ERA this season, along with a 1.20 WHIP and a MLB-best 3.33 K/BB ratio. The Brewers' bullpen has a 3.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 2.70 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends and Totals Report

MLB Betting Trends

The Brewers are 28-22 on the road this season and 42-29 against right-handed starters. The Braves are 32-19 at home and 51-31 against right-handed starters.

Totals Report

The unders are 57-42 in Brewers games this season, while the overs are 52-46 in Braves games. At Truist Park, the overs are 30-20 this season.

Brewers vs. Braves Prediction 7/28/23

Houser has shown improvement recently, giving him the edge in the pitching match-up against Chirinos. The Braves have a slight edge in hitting and bullpen comparison. However, considering the Braves' current struggles and the Brewers' good form lately, the high price for the Braves doesn't seem warranted. We like the baseball betting value with the Brewers getting the fat underdog price on Friday night.
 

Free Pick: Take Milwaukee +160
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