Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Odds & Picks 9/9/20

September 9, 7:10 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Marlins +127/Braves -137

After taking the first two games of this NL East series the Marlins aim for the sweep Wednesday night in suburban Atlanta. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday's MLB betting odds opened Atlanta and Milone at around -150 over Miami and Lopez, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped the Braves about dime, to -140, and the total to nine.

Marlins vs. Braves Set-Up

Miami took the opener of this series Monday 5-4, then won Tuesday 8-0. The Marlins won as +200 dogs Monday, then at +105 Tuesday. With Tuesday's victory Miami is 3-1 over its last four games. With Tuesday's loss Atlanta is just 1-4 over its last five games. At 24-18 overall the Braves' lead in the NL East is down to 1.5 games over second-place Philadelphia. At 19-18 overall the Marlins trail Atlanta by just 2.5 games in the NL East, and they're tied with St. Louis and San Francisco for the No. 7 spot in the National League, which is good for a playoff spot this season. Miami went off this season playing against a wins over/under of just 24.5, lowest in the National League. So they only need six more wins over their last 23 games to play over that figure. The Marlins lead the season series with Atlanta three games to two.

Wednesday's Starting Arms

Lefty Milone is making his third for his new team, after coming over in a trade with Baltimore. On the season he's 2/8 on quality starts, and 0 for his last three. Last Friday he held Washington to one run and six hits through four innings of a 7-1 Atlanta victory. But in his first start for the Braves he got bombed by Philadelphia for seven runs in less than three innings, although Atlanta eventually won that game 12-10. The Orioles played 2-4 with Milone this season, while Atlanta is 2-0 with him. Also, the overs are 4-3 with Milone this year. This will be Milone's first start against Miami since 2018, when as a member of the Washington Nationals he gave up three runs and eight hits through five frames of a 10-3 Nats win. Lopez is 3/7 on quality starts this season, looking to bounce back after a poor outing last time out, when he gave up five runs and five hits through four innings of a 5-4 Marlins loss to Tampa Bay. But over his first six starts of this season he allowed 12 runs – eight earned – and 33 hits through 34 1/3 innings. On the season Miami is 3-4 with Lopez, with the overs going 4-3. Over his last four starts against the Braves, three last year and one last month, Lopez allowed seven runs and 21 hits through 23 innings, with three walks against 26 strikeouts. The Marlins lost three of those four games but that certainly wasn't his fault.

Wednesday's Batting Splits

Miami is batting .235 this season against left-handed pitching, with a meager .290 team OBP and a .387 team slugging percentage. But the Marlins have also scored at least five runs three times over their last four games. Atlanta is batting .271/.345/.494 vs. right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top two or three in the Majors in this split.

The Bullpens

The Miami bullpen owns a 4.29 ERA this season and a 1.40 WHIP, along with a 1.47 K/BB ratio. The Braves pen owns a 3.44 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, along with a 3.00 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those help this unit rank among the top three or four bullpens in Baseball.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Miami is 17-9 on the road this season.
  • Atlanta is 14-8 at home this season.
  • Miami is 4-9 against left-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta is 19-16 vs. right-handed starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 19-17 in Marlins games this season.
  • Overs are 21-17 in Braves games this season.
  • Overs are 11-9 in games played at Truist Park this season.
  • Unders are 3-1 in Marlins-Braves games this season.

Marlins vs. Braves Prediction 9/9/20

We're giving Lopez the edge in the pitching match-up but Atlanta gets the check-marks in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. And the Braves will do everything they can to avoid the sweep. We'll take Atlanta for our free MLB pick for Wednesday.
Free Pick: 
Take the Braves -137