Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Analysis

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Analysis

Cliff Knox
Date: September 13, 7:40 pm
Location: American Family Field
TV: MLBN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Mia +105/Mil -115
Total: 8.5

The Brewers are chasing a division title while the Marlins are fighting to stay in the NL wild-card race as they enter the third game of this four-game series in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Reliever Trevor Megill will be on the mound for the Brewers, facing lefty Braxton Garrett from the Marlins. Who should we favor in our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

The opening odds for Wednesday's game had Milwaukee and Megill at around -115, with Miami and Garrett at +105. The over/under was set at 8.5 runs, and these odds have remained steady in the early betting.

Marlins-Brewers Betting Preview

Milwaukee dominated the first two games of this series, winning 12-0 on Monday and 3-1 on Tuesday. They were favorites with Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta on the mound, both of whom are in great form. The Brewers boast strong pitching, which bodes well for their playoff prospects. They covered the run line in both Monday and Tuesday's games, with odds at +145 and +125. With Tuesday's victory, the Brewers have won four of their last five games. Impressively, in the one game they lost, their pitchers held the Yankees hitless until the 11th inning. Sitting at 81-63 overall, the Brewers lead the NL Central by four games over the Cubs, with only 18 games left in the season. On the flip side, Miami is struggling, having lost four of their last six games. At 74-71 overall, the Marlins trail the Diamondbacks by a game and a half in the race for the final National League wild-card spot.

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up

Trevor Megill is stepping into his first start this season after 26 appearances in relief. He's been impressive recently, allowing just one run and eight hits in his last 11 2/3 innings, with an outstanding 22 strikeouts and only one walk. Colin Rea, a regular starter, will likely relieve Megill after an inning or two. On the other hand, Braxton Garrett, though only two for his last six on quality starts, is showing improvement. He held the Dodgers to just one run on three hits in his last outing. Over his last six starts, he's given up 10 runs and 28 hits in 32 2/3 innings. Garrett has been a reliable presence for the Marlins this season, with the team posting a strong 19-8 record in games where he starts. In his only career start against Milwaukee, which took place in September of last season, Garrett allowed two runs and seven hits through four innings, leading the Marlins to a 4-2 victory.

Splits With the Sticks

The Marlins are batting .249 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .307 team on-base percentage and a .395 team slugging percentage. The Brewers are slashing .249/.324/.409 against left-handed pitching. It's worth noting that the Brewers recently added former MVP Josh Donaldson, who bats right-handed, and he already made an impact with a home run in Tuesday night's game.

The Bullpens

Milwaukee's bullpen has a 3.68 ERA this season, with a 1.23 WHIP and a solid 2.73 K/BB ratio. Miami's bullpen, on the other hand, has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, with a 2.60 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

Miami has a 34-38 record on the road this season and a 56-54 record against right-handed starters. Milwaukee has a 41-28 record at home but a less impressive 18-22 record against left-handed starters.

Totals Report

  • The under has hit in 73 out of 140 Marlins games this season.
  • For the Brewers, the under has hit in 72 out of 138 games.
  • At American Family Field, the over has hit in 36 out of 66 games this season.

Marlins vs. Brewers Pick on the Moneyline

Considering the pitching match-up, we're giving the edge to Garrett. Milwaukee has struggled against left-handed starters this season, and the Marlins desperately need a win to stay in the NL playoff race. Our bet is on the Marlins for Wednesday night.

Free Pick: Take Miami +105
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