Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Pick - Odds and Betting Predictions

Date: 
October 13, 9:09 PM EDT
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Red Sox -115 / Astros -105
Total: 
7

MLB Betting Line

The Red Sox opened as a mild home -120 money line favorite in this ALCS game with the total line set at 7 runs. Since then we’ve seen some downward movement on the ML with Boston as low as -114 on some boards. On the run line for Game 1 the Astros are offered at +1.5 -200 and the Bosox at -1.5 +170.

Houston at Boston MLB Set-up

The Astros completed the sweep of their ALDS over the Indians with a crushing 11-3 win. Houston scored 10 of the 11 runs in the last three innings to romp.

The Astros outscored the Indians 21-6 in the three-game sweep in the ALDS. Houston has won six of their last seven games, and in their previous 11 games they have allowed over three runs just once, and that was four in the regular season finale versus Baltimore

The Red Sox closed out their ALDS over the New York Yankees in four games with a nail-biting 4-3 victory. The Red Sox scored four runs on eight hits, and the Yankees scored three runs on five hits.

Overall, the Red Sox have won four of their last five games including their last two. They outscored the Yankees 20-4 in Game 3 and Game 4 of the ALDS, and they have scored in double-digits in runs in two of their last five games.

This season the Astros rank 6th in runs scored and 1st in team ERA and the Red Sox rank 1st in runs scored and 8th in team ERA.

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Head-To-Head

This season the Astros won four of seven games against the Red Sox including two of three in Fenway Park.

Pitching Match-Up

Houston: Justin Verlander (16-9 2.52 ERA)
Boston: Chris Sale (12-4 2.11 ERA)

Verlander’s last start was in Game 1 of the ALDS where he gave up two earned runs on two hits over five 1/3 innings in a 7-2 Houston win. The Astros have won his last six starts where he held the opposition to two earned runs or in all six outings. In Verlander's last two starts of the regular season, he pitched 12 innings of scoreless ball. His lone start against the Red Sox this season came on June 2nd in Houston where he gave up two earned runs on three hits in six innings in a 5-4 Houston loss.

Verlander has only allowed one HR in his last seven starts, and he has not allowed any in his previous three. The Astros have won 17 of Verlander's last 20 road starts, and they have won five of his last seven starts facing a team with a winning record.

Sale’s last appearance was in Game 4 of the ALDS where he came out of the bullpen to pitch one scoreless inning allowing 0 hits in the 4-3 Boston win. His last start was in Game 1 of the ALDS where he gave up two earned runs on five hits through five 1/3 innings in a 5-4 Boston win. In Sale’s last two starts he has given up five earned runs in 10 innings of work.

Sale has one start against the Astros this season which came on June 1st in Houston where he gave up four earned runs on six hits over six innings in a 7-3 Boston loss. The Red Sox have won six of Sale's last seven home starts, and they have won his last four starts against a team with a winning record.

Astros at Red Sox MLB Betting Angles

In the last 6 games between these teams, the Over record is 5-1.

In the last 18 games between these teams in Boston, the Over record is 13-5.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Records

Houston Astros: 106-59 SU / O/U 71-85 / Run Line W/L 86-79
Boston Red Sox: 111-55 SU / O/U 79-78 / Run Line W/L 94-72

Houston at Boston MLB Key Betting Trends

  • HOU is 39-13 in their last 52 road games
  • HOU is 11-3 in their previous 14 games against a left-hand starter
  • HOU has an Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 road games
  • BOS is 45-18 in their last 63 home games
  • BOS is 4-1 in their previous 5 NLCS games
  • BOS has an Over record of 6-1-2 in their last 9 home games

Key Player Injuries

ASTROS

[LF] 05/21/2018 - Derek Fisher 10-day DL (05/20) ( Intestinal )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Brady Rodgers 10-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )
[P] 03/26/2018 - Jandel Gustave 60-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )

RED SOX

[P] 10/07/2018 - Steven Wright is out indefinitely ( Knee )
[P] 09/27/2018 - Tyler Thornburg is out for season ( Shoulder )
[2B] 06/02/2018 - Dustin Pedroia 60-day DL (05/30); is out for season ( Knee )
[P] 05/15/2018 - Carson Smith 60-day DL (05/15) ( Shoulder )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Austin Maddox 60-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )
[SS] 03/26/2018 - Marco Hernandez 60-day DL (03/29) ( Shoulder )

Get more details: Houston at Boston MLB Match-Up

Houston at Boston MLB Predictions 10/13/2018

This series is a clear battle between pitching versus hitting with the Astros leading the MLB in ERA and the Red Sox on top of baseball in runs scored. So, it comes as no surprise that these teams two teams had the best records in baseball this season. We get on paper an excellent pitching matchup between a couple of Aces in this game with Verlander ranking 3rd in the AL in ERA and Sale who would have ranked a higher if he had met the innings pitched qualification. That said, Verlander comes into this game in better form and with the superior historical numbers versus the opponent's projected starters. Houston had the best road record in baseball in 2018, and I think we'll see why on Saturday.

Free Pick: 
Take the Houston Astros +104
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