Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Analysis

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Analysis

Darin Zank
Date: July 16, 7:10 pm
Location: Angel Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Hous -140/LAA +120
Total: 9.5

In the final game of this AL West series, the Houston Astros (51-42) will face off against the Los Angeles Angels (46-47) at Angel Stadium on Sunday night. As an experienced MLB handicapper, I will provide insights into this matchup and offer my free baseball betting pick.

MLB Betting Odds

The initial MLB betting odds for this game opened with the Houston Astros and Christian Javier as favorites at around -140, while the Los Angeles Angels and Tyler Anderson were underdogs at +120. The over/under line was set at 9.5 runs, and these numbers have remained steady in early betting action.

Astros-Angels Betting Preview

The Houston Astros claimed victory in the series opener on Friday night with a 7-5 win. The Los Angeles Angels, however, bounced back in a dramatic fashion during Saturday's game. Trailing 9-3 through 6 1/2 innings, the Angels mounted an impressive comeback, scoring six runs in the bottom of the seventh. They eventually secured a 13-12 victory in extra innings, capitalizing on an Astros error. In terms of recent betting results, the Astros won on Friday as +130 underdogs against Shohei Ohtani, while the Angels prevailed on Saturday as +135 underdogs against Framber Valdez. Furthermore, both games surpassed the totals set for runs scored. Saturday's win halted a six-game losing streak for the Angels, who have struggled over their last 12 games, posting a 2-10 record. Currently, the Angels are tied for ninth place in the American League playoff standings, trailing the sixth-place Yankees by four games. As for the Astros, Saturday's loss brought their recent record to 2-4 over the last six games. With an overall record of 51-42, Houston trails the first-place Texas team by three games in the AL West division. The Astros have dominated the season series against the Angels, winning six out of the nine matchups so far.

Saturday's Pitching Match-Up

Tyler Anderson takes the mound for the Angels, boasting a record of 5 quality starts out of 15 this season. In his most recent appearance, he pitched in relief against the Dodgers nine days ago, allowing three runs and four hits over 4 1/3 innings in an 11-4 loss. However, in his three starts prior to that, Anderson performed well, conceding only five runs and 15 hits across 16 innings while accumulating 18 strikeouts against five walks. The Angels have won nine out of the 15 games Anderson has started this season. It's worth noting that in his last two starts against the Astros, which occurred in 2021 when he played for the Seattle Mariners, Anderson gave up six runs and 15 hits over 10 innings. Despite his performance, the Mariners managed to win both games due to strong run support. Christian Javier will be on the mound for the Astros, having recorded 8 quality starts out of 17 this year. However, he has struggled in his last three starts. In his most recent outing against the Rangers 13 days ago, Javier was hit hard, surrendering eight runs and nine hits in just 4 1/3 innings. Although the Astros eventually won that game 12-11, Javier has given up 18 runs and 21 hits in his last three starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Houston has achieved a 13-4 record in games started by Javier this season. In his two previous starts against the Angels this year, Javier performed admirably, allowing three runs and nine hits over 12 innings. He registered 16 strikeouts against only one walk, and the Astros emerged victorious in both contests.

Splits With the Sticks

The Houston Astros have performed well against left-handed pitching this season, boasting a team batting average of .262, a team on-base percentage of .327, and a team slugging percentage of .434. However, the Astros will be without key players Altuve and Alvarez, creating significant gaps in their lineup. On the other hand, the Los Angeles Angels have recorded a .256/.329/.448 slash line against right-handed pitching. Nevertheless, the Angels are currently missing the offensive contributions of Trout and Rendon, which presents a challenge for their lineup. Both teams are operating with a couple of key hitters absent from their lineups.

The Bullpens

The Angels' bullpen has posted a 4.20 ERA this season, accompanied by a 1.39 WHIP and a 2.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB). The Astros' bullpen, meanwhile, has recorded a 3.67 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 2.97 K/BB ratio.

MLB Betting Trends

The Houston Astros have been solid on the road this season, posting a 26-20 record. They have also performed well against left-handed starting pitchers, going 15-10 in those matchups. The Los Angeles Angels have been decent at home with a 24-21 record. Additionally, they have been successful against right-handed starting pitchers, going 37-30 in those games.

Totals Report

The over has hit in 46 of the Astros' games this season, while the under has prevailed in 44 of the Angels' games. Notably, the under has hit in 25 of the games played at Angel Stadium this season.

Astros at Angels Prediction 7/16/23

Considering the pitching match-up, Javier holds the edge due to his previous success against the Angels this season, despite his recent struggles. Furthermore, the Astros possess a superior bullpen compared to the Angels, even though Saturday's game didn't go their way. Both teams are missing key offensive contributors, making the lineups relatively even. After a disappointing loss in the previous game, I expect the Astros to bounce back and deliver a strong performance on Sunday night. Therefore, my free MLB pick is to bet on the Houston Astros.
 

Free Pick: Take Houston -140
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