Expert Baseball Picks

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Thursday Jun 07, 2018

We have two pitchers on the mound tonight that don't allow a lot of baserunners. Gerrit Cole's WHIP numbers are excellent with sub 1.00 in all metrics, and Cole Hamels has a strong metric in night starts with a 1.08 WHIP. Both starters do give up the long ball with Cole getting tagged with six home runs allowed in his last four games and Hamels 15 in his 12 starts this season. That said Cole and Hamels have quality back numbers against their opponent tonight. Gerrit Cole has two quality starts against the Rangers this season allowing a combined three runs over 14 1/3 innings of work and Cole Hamels has held the Astros to five runs in 17 2/3 innings over three starts this season.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 9
Wednesday Jun 06, 2018

Chicago starter Hector Santiago hasn’t looked all that out of place in his six starts this season giving his team a chance to win in most outings. That said, he has had control issues with a ridiculous 20 walks over 27 1/3 innings pitched in his starts this season. Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi was chased after just 3 2/3 innings allowing seven earned runs on seven hits in his last outing against Cleveland. However, he has been consistent most of the season, and prior to that last start, he had allowed five ER over four starts. The Twins were hot before dropping the back end of the double-header yesterday with rookie Zack Littell making his first career start. They had won four straight and had gone 7-3 at home in their last ten. In the season series only one game has been decided by fewer than two runs, and with the edge in most metrics going to the Twins they're worth a shot with the extra handicap.

Free Pick: 
Take the Minnesota Twins -1.5 +120
Tuesday Jun 05, 2018

CC Sabathia hasn’t been in the best of form, but he’s pitched well in his two starts this season versus Toronto and can have another one tonight. He has strong historical numbers against the Jays batters overall holding the projected starters to a .222 ERA. Toronto starter Marco Estrada has had a lot of success against the Yankees in his career and catches a team that has played three games in the last two days with double travel. If the roof stays open, it's going to be a chilly night with a strong wind blowing in from center field. The Jays offense has struggled all season with four runs being considered a productive day. Three of four in Toronto earlier this season fell UNDER the total and only two of the matches this season have gone OVER tonight's posted total.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 10
Monday Jun 04, 2018

Both starters have been pitching well in recent games with the Royals Duffy recording back to back quality starts allowing just two runs over 13 2/3 innings pitched. He has good numbers at home against the Angels getting the QS in three straight games in Kansas City but did get blown up in LA for five runs over six innings, but that was back in 2014. Versus the current Angels lineup, he has the batters to a .247 earned run average over 111 plate appearances. Opposing him on the mound for LA is Nick Tropeana who have the best metrics at home this season 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA, but overall his recent outings have been solid holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in four of his last five.  While it's a small sample size, his career numbers against the KC line-up are excellent allowing a .212 BA, .257 OBA and .242 SLG over 35 PAs. Neither team’s offense is giving the score-keeper a workout especially the Angels who have scored three or fewer runs in 16 of their last 22 games! 

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8.5
Sunday Jun 03, 2018

Rick Porcello hasn’t been at his best since April and his last start at Minute Maid Park was disastrous getting lit up for seven runs in six innings. Charlie Morton has been brilliant at home this season with a 5-0 record and 1.85 ERA, but he'll be facing Boston for the first time on this field. His last out against them was not impressive allowing nine baserunners in 4 1/3 at Fenway. Both teams are riding an OVER trend with Boston on a 7-1 O/U streak and Houston on a 7-2-1 roll.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 8
Sunday Jun 03, 2018

San Diego's overall home record is not impressive, but they've started to play better at home winning seven of their last ten at Petco Park. They catch a pitcher in Luis Castillo who has been taking his lumps on the road with a bloated 6.49 ERA and a 28.6 QS percentage. On the mound for the Padres is Tyson Ross who rarely tosses a bad one and has never lost against the Reds although it must be noted that he hasn't faced them since 2015. Ross has performed well at home with a 60% QS metric, and overall the team is 8-3 in his 11 starts. I'll lay the small number and back the home squad here.

Free Pick: 
Take the San Diego Padres -110
Saturday Jun 02, 2018

The Rangers have lost six straight against the Angles, but I think that they may break that trend tonight. Texas starter Cole Hamels has good career numbers against the LA Angels holding the line-up to a .235 batting average over 277 at bats. He has two other strong metrics to go on; he's a positive 2-1 on the road this season with a 2.54 ERA, and overall in night games he's 3-1 with a sizzling 2.18 ERA and a 71.4% QS number. Los Angeles counters with Garret Richards who Also has strong historical stats against tonight's opponent holding the Rangers' batters to .230 but his form this season has been up and down and he's not going deep into games which I reflected in his season 27.3 quality start percentage. An additional thing in our favor is the negative record of the host against left-handed pitching going 5-8 in 2018. I'll take a shot on the dog in this spot getting a healthy return.

Free Pick: 
Take the Texas Rangers +150 (RC)
Saturday Jun 02, 2018

Today’s starting pitchers were the starters in a 2-1 Rockies win at Dodgers Field back on May 21st. They switch venues today to hitter-friendly Coors Field and get an OVER trending home plate umpire. That said, both starters have good back numbers against today’s projected starting line-up with Walker Buehler holding the Colorado batters to a .185 batting average in 27 at bats and the Dodgers line-up hitting only .233 in 43 ABs against German Marquez. Speaking of the Rockies starter he has been dreadful at home this, but his last one at Coors was good allowing one run through seven innings, and he appears to be in top form right now.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 10.5
Friday Jun 01, 2018

The Oakland bats were ice-cold in their homestand scoring 15 runs in their first nine games, but they broke out for seven runs last night. That's a good sign as they hit the road where the bats shone in Toronto scoring 27 runs over four games in their previous series away from home. They face the struggling Ian Kennedy who has been rocked for 21 runs in his last four starts. Frankie Montas takes the mound for Oakland, and he was sharp in his start since 2015, but that was against the lowly Diamondbacks who are in the bottom of MLB in many hitting categories. I’m going to wager that he doesn’t have as much success in his second start tonight.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 9.5
Tuesday May 29, 2018

I’m going to play a couple of angles here. Toronto and Boston have played seven times this season resulting in five UNDERs and have only surpassed tonight’s total line once in the seven matches. The Red Sox have had Jays’ starter Marco Estrada’s number in recent games, but he does have some strong back figures against the Boston line-up and can improve in his third go against them this season. Red Sox starter has been off form in his last few, but he pitched well in his only start against the Jays this season going seven frames allowing three runs and will likely face Toronto without Josh Donaldson. We get the added advantage of UNDER umpire Victor Carapazza, and the forecast has the wind blowing in tonight.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 9.5
Monday May 28, 2018

Velasquez has pitched adequately for most of the season, giving his team a shot of winning in most games. However, he does come up with some bad ones; case in point is three outings where he gave up 14 runs over 11.1 innings. Historically he has just two starts against the Dodgers, and neither one was pretty allowing 14 runs over 10.1 innings, and the current LAD lineup has a career .409 batting average vs. him albeit in limited at bats. The Dodgers starter Brock Stewart was OK in his only start this season and should show some improvement in his second stretch-out this season. The Phillies bats haven’t been overpowering in recent games and with the series trends favoring the home teams and Los Angeles improved play I’m willing to lay the high number.

Free Pick: 
Take the LA Dodgers -130
Sunday May 27, 2018

Look I could make a case for taking the Royals at plus money, but that would be a bit of a reach. The Rangers have been hitting the ball well scoring 6.16 runs per game over their last six. They send Cole Hamels to the mound, and he's been in excellent form recording four quality starts over his previous five outings, and he has great historical numbers against the projected Kansas City line-up. The Royals starter Jason Hammel also has great back numbers against Texas line-up, but he's been very inconsistent this season. I rarely make runline wagers, and this may be only one of a handful of times that I have laid it on the home team.

Free Pick: 
Take the Texas Rangers -1.5 +105
Saturday May 26, 2018

Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi hasn’t between going deep into games, but he has been consistent, allowing three or fewer runs the last five times he has been handed the ball allowing a combined total of six runs. Seattle lefty Wade LeBlanc made his first start in 21 months back on May third, and it was good one throwing four scoreless innings. On the season he has four starts allowing a total of three earned runs. Neither team has been working out the scorekeeper in recent games making the total the way to go here.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8
Friday May 25, 2018

Toronto pitcher Gaviglio looked sharp in his first start this season throwing five-plus scoreless frames against It’s difficult to back the Jays these days the way the offense is performing. Toronto has scored four runs or fewer runs in 14 of their last 19 games and face a pitcher who has been impressive in his three starts this allowing three earned runs over 17 1/3 innings. The Jays did blast Phillies starter for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings, but he was making his first career MLB start, and it showed. That said, I'm going to throw that all out the window. Both starters have not been consistent in their careers and the limited sample size this season is too small to say that either one of them has turned the corner. The wind is forecast to be blowing out at Citizen Bank Park making and both pitchers have had their struggles keeping the ball in the park

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 9.5 (RC)
Monday May 21, 2018

This game will be the fourth time that these pitchers have faced each other this season and while Philly has taken two of three, the Braves starter Mike Folytynewicz has been the better of the two allowing two or fewer runs on all three starts. Philadelphia's Nick Pivetta has only been mediocre allowing three in four frames in his opener and then one in five frames before getting tagged with four runs in five innings and his last.

Free Pick: 
Take the Atlanta Braves + 110
Sunday May 20, 2018

Detroit starter Francisco Liriano has strong numbers against Seattle’s projected line-up holding the hitters to a .206 batting average over 68 at-bats, but the numbers are skewed. Nearly two-thirds of the at-bats are by Jean Segura and Gordon Beckham who he has owned, but others such as Kyle Seager (.400), Dee Gordon (.400) and Nelson Cruz have had success against Liriano in a smaller sample size. Seattle starter Wade LeBlanc has been razor sharp in his three starts this season allowing one earned run in 15 innings pitched, but he doesn't have great historical numbers against the Detroit line-up allowing a career .364 BA. LeBlanc also hasn’t fared well throwing in day games this season coming out of the pen giving up five runs in five innings.

Free Pick: 
Take the OVER 8.5
Saturday May 19, 2018

Los Angeles starter Andrew Heaney has been getting better every start as his confidence grows. His last start was ultra-impressive pitching eight innings allowing just one run on four hits and striking out ten batters. That said, I’d stay away from the Angels today with the inflated line and the lack of production form the offense. The host has scored three or fewer runs in seven straight and while Romo doesn’t have any starts against he does have experience facing the line-up holding them to a .137 batting average over 51 at bats.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 8.5
Friday May 18, 2018

I’m willing to take a shot laying 1.5 runs in this spot on the Yanks who are a positive 7.01 units flat betting them on the run line this season. Their offense has been impressive scoring four or greater runs in 11 of their last 12. Kansas City has been getting blown out frequently this season, and their current funk has seen five of their previous seven defeats being by two or more runs. Royals starter Jakob Junis has been beatable at home this season losing two of his last three and was blown up for six runs in 5 2/3 innings on the road last season in NY.

Free Pick: 
Take the NY Yankees -1.5 -110
Thursday May 17, 2018

Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction 5/17/18

Baltimore has lost six straight away from home to bring their road record to an embarrassing 3-16 on the season. They have been playing better though with five wins over their last seven games and excluding previous night; their scoring production was solid in that stretch scoring five or more runs in five of the six past games. Gausman may not have great career numbers against the Red Sox, but he was close to brilliant in his last two in 2017 versus them allowing zero runs over 15 2/3 innings. Boston's starter Price has been subpar since he opened the campaign with two quality starts failing to get the QS in his last six outings. The team has won just one of his last four, and the team that broke out of the gate 17-2 is .500 over their previous 24 games. This pick is indeed no lock considering the Orioles road woes, but I'm taking a shot on the Birds plus the money.

Free Pick: 
Take the Baltimore Orioles +140
Wednesday May 16, 2018

The Astros Verlander has been brilliant this season with an overall 88.9 quality start percentage that increases to 100% on the road. He’s been sizzling in his last seven starts allowing a total of five runs over 48 innings! The Angels starter Garrett Richards doesn’t have comparable numbers, but he has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in three of his four home starts. His one poor outing at Angel Stadium came when he was pitching on six days rest against the Yankees, and that may have had an impact.

Richards pitched well against Houston last season throwing 11 innings over two starts allowing one run on five hits. Historical pitcher vs. batter numbers are strong with the LAA line-up hitting .128 and the HOU hitting .236. I believe the total is the way to go here. Even if Richards doesn't have his best stuff, the overall scoring could fall below the number by a run or two.

Free Pick: 
Take the UNDER 7.5

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