Expert Baseball Picks

We have two pitchers on the mound tonight that don't allow a lot of baserunners. Gerrit Cole's WHIP numbers are excellent with sub 1.00 in all metrics, and Cole Hamels has a strong metric in night starts with a 1.08 WHIP. Both starters do give up the long ball with Cole getting tagged with six home runs allowed in his last four games and Hamels 15 in his 12 starts this season. That said Cole and Hamels have quality back numbers against their opponent tonight. Gerrit Cole has two quality starts against the Rangers this season allowing a combined three runs over 14 1/3 innings of work and Cole Hamels has held the Astros to five runs in 17 2/3 innings over three starts this season.

Chicago starter Hector Santiago hasn’t looked all that out of place in his six starts this season giving his team a chance to win in most outings. That said, he has had control issues with a ridiculous 20 walks over 27 1/3 innings pitched in his starts this season. Minnesota starter Jake Odorizzi was chased after just 3 2/3 innings allowing seven earned runs on seven hits in his last outing against Cleveland. However, he has been consistent most of the season, and prior to that last start, he had allowed five ER over four starts. The Twins were hot before dropping the back end of the double-header yesterday with rookie Zack Littell making his first career start. They had won four straight and had gone 7-3 at home in their last ten. In the season series only one game has been decided by fewer than two runs, and with the edge in most metrics going to the Twins they're worth a shot with the extra handicap.

CC Sabathia hasn’t been in the best of form, but he’s pitched well in his two starts this season versus Toronto and can have another one tonight. He has strong historical numbers against the Jays batters overall holding the projected starters to a .222 ERA. Toronto starter Marco Estrada has had a lot of success against the Yankees in his career and catches a team that has played three games in the last two days with double travel. If the roof stays open, it's going to be a chilly night with a strong wind blowing in from center field. The Jays offense has struggled all season with four runs being considered a productive day. Three of four in Toronto earlier this season fell UNDER the total and only two of the matches this season have gone OVER tonight's posted total.

Both starters have been pitching well in recent games with the Royals Duffy recording back to back quality starts allowing just two runs over 13 2/3 innings pitched. He has good numbers at home against the Angels getting the QS in three straight games in Kansas City but did get blown up in LA for five runs over six innings, but that was back in 2014. Versus the current Angels lineup, he has the batters to a .247 earned run average over 111 plate appearances. Opposing him on the mound for LA is Nick Tropeana who have the best metrics at home this season 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA, but overall his recent outings have been solid holding the opposition to three or fewer runs in four of his last five.  While it's a small sample size, his career numbers against the KC line-up are excellent allowing a .212 BA, .257 OBA and .242 SLG over 35 PAs. Neither team’s offense is giving the score-keeper a workout especially the Angels who have scored three or fewer runs in 16 of their last 22 games! 

Rick Porcello hasn’t been at his best since April and his last start at Minute Maid Park was disastrous getting lit up for seven runs in six innings. Charlie Morton has been brilliant at home this season with a 5-0 record and 1.85 ERA, but he'll be facing Boston for the first time on this field. His last out against them was not impressive allowing nine baserunners in 4 1/3 at Fenway. Both teams are riding an OVER trend with Boston on a 7-1 O/U streak and Houston on a 7-2-1 roll.

San Diego's overall home record is not impressive, but they've started to play better at home winning seven of their last ten at Petco Park. They catch a pitcher in Luis Castillo who has been taking his lumps on the road with a bloated 6.49 ERA and a 28.6 QS percentage. On the mound for the Padres is Tyson Ross who rarely tosses a bad one and has never lost against the Reds although it must be noted that he hasn't faced them since 2015. Ross has performed well at home with a 60% QS metric, and overall the team is 8-3 in his 11 starts. I'll lay the small number and back the home squad here.

The Rangers have lost six straight against the Angles, but I think that they may break that trend tonight. Texas starter Cole Hamels has good career numbers against the LA Angels holding the line-up to a .235 batting average over 277 at bats. He has two other strong metrics to go on; he's a positive 2-1 on the road this season with a 2.54 ERA, and overall in night games he's 3-1 with a sizzling 2.18 ERA and a 71.4% QS number. Los Angeles counters with Garret Richards who Also has strong historical stats against tonight's opponent holding the Rangers' batters to .230 but his form this season has been up and down and he's not going deep into games which I reflected in his season 27.3 quality start percentage. An additional thing in our favor is the negative record of the host against left-handed pitching going 5-8 in 2018. I'll take a shot on the dog in this spot getting a healthy return.

Today’s starting pitchers were the starters in a 2-1 Rockies win at Dodgers Field back on May 21st. They switch venues today to hitter-friendly Coors Field and get an OVER trending home plate umpire. That said, both starters have good back numbers against today’s projected starting line-up with Walker Buehler holding the Colorado batters to a .185 batting average in 27 at bats and the Dodgers line-up hitting only .233 in 43 ABs against German Marquez. Speaking of the Rockies starter he has been dreadful at home this, but his last one at Coors was good allowing one run through seven innings, and he appears to be in top form right now.

The Oakland bats were ice-cold in their homestand scoring 15 runs in their first nine games, but they broke out for seven runs last night. That's a good sign as they hit the road where the bats shone in Toronto scoring 27 runs over four games in their previous series away from home. They face the struggling Ian Kennedy who has been rocked for 21 runs in his last four starts. Frankie Montas takes the mound for Oakland, and he was sharp in his start since 2015, but that was against the lowly Diamondbacks who are in the bottom of MLB in many hitting categories. I’m going to wager that he doesn’t have as much success in his second start tonight.

Velasquez has pitched adequately for most of the season, giving his team a shot of winning in most games. However, he does come up with some bad ones; case in point is three outings where he gave up 14 runs over 11.1 innings. Historically he has just two starts against the Dodgers, and neither one was pretty allowing 14 runs over 10.1 innings, and the current LAD lineup has a career .409 batting average vs. him albeit in limited at bats. The Dodgers starter Brock Stewart was OK in his only start this season and should show some improvement in his second stretch-out this season. The Phillies bats haven’t been overpowering in recent games and with the series trends favoring the home teams and Los Angeles improved play I’m willing to lay the high number.

Look I could make a case for taking the Royals at plus money, but that would be a bit of a reach. The Rangers have been hitting the ball well scoring 6.16 runs per game over their last six. They send Cole Hamels to the mound, and he's been in excellent form recording four quality starts over his previous five outings, and he has great historical numbers against the projected Kansas City line-up. The Royals starter Jason Hammel also has great back numbers against Texas line-up, but he's been very inconsistent this season. I rarely make runline wagers, and this may be only one of a handful of times that I have laid it on the home team.

Toronto pitcher Gaviglio looked sharp in his first start this season throwing five-plus scoreless frames against It’s difficult to back the Jays these days the way the offense is performing. Toronto has scored four runs or fewer runs in 14 of their last 19 games and face a pitcher who has been impressive in his three starts this allowing three earned runs over 17 1/3 innings. The Jays did blast Phillies starter for eight runs in just 2 2/3 innings, but he was making his first career MLB start, and it showed. That said, I'm going to throw that all out the window. Both starters have not been consistent in their careers and the limited sample size this season is too small to say that either one of them has turned the corner. The wind is forecast to be blowing out at Citizen Bank Park making and both pitchers have had their struggles keeping the ball in the park

This game will be the fourth time that these pitchers have faced each other this season and while Philly has taken two of three, the Braves starter Mike Folytynewicz has been the better of the two allowing two or fewer runs on all three starts. Philadelphia's Nick Pivetta has only been mediocre allowing three in four frames in his opener and then one in five frames before getting tagged with four runs in five innings and his last.

Los Angeles starter Andrew Heaney has been getting better every start as his confidence grows. His last start was ultra-impressive pitching eight innings allowing just one run on four hits and striking out ten batters. That said, I’d stay away from the Angels today with the inflated line and the lack of production form the offense. The host has scored three or fewer runs in seven straight and while Romo doesn’t have any starts against he does have experience facing the line-up holding them to a .137 batting average over 51 at bats.

The Astros Verlander has been brilliant this season with an overall 88.9 quality start percentage that increases to 100% on the road. He’s been sizzling in his last seven starts allowing a total of five runs over 48 innings! The Angels starter Garrett Richards doesn’t have comparable numbers, but he has held the opposition to three or fewer runs in three of his four home starts. His one poor outing at Angel Stadium came when he was pitching on six days rest against the Yankees, and that may have had an impact.

Richards pitched well against Houston last season throwing 11 innings over two starts allowing one run on five hits. Historical pitcher vs. batter numbers are strong with the LAA line-up hitting .128 and the HOU hitting .236. I believe the total is the way to go here. Even if Richards doesn't have his best stuff, the overall scoring could fall below the number by a run or two.