Expert Baseball Picks

Texas owns the edge in the pitching match-up, but Arizona might hold a short edge with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. We see betting value here with the Diamondbacks at the underdog price.

Los Angeles owns advantages in the pitching match-up, in the splits with the sticks and the bullpen comparison. So we like the Dodgers here. And considering three of its four wins over Philadelphia this season have come by at least two runs we'll play LA against the MLB run line.

Atlanta is playing in the right direction as of late, while Milwaukee is headed in the wrong direction. And momentum means a lot in our baseball handicapping guidebook. So we're betting the Braves Monday night.

Astros starter Verlander has owned the Rangers hitters in his last two which included one here at Globe Life Park, but he did have his struggles in his first visit allowing four runs over four innings. He has been out of form in his last four with just one QS and allowing nine HRs. Rangers starter Jurado pitched well against the Astros in his only career start, and while he has been mediocre at best this season, he has been better during the day with a 3.49 ERA. Texas is a very good 31-18 at home this season, are hitting well and can get the money here at a big price. Jurado did get blown up in his latest so his confidence may be an issue, and with Verlander's recent struggles, the total looks good as well.

Giolito owns the better numbers this season, but Lester holds the better recent track record against Saturday's opponents. So we're calling this pitching match-up a push. And other factors are about even, too. But the White Sox are playing the better ball as of late, so we like the home team getting a short home-dog price for our free MLB pick in this spot.

We're calling this pitching match-up a wash, and while Minnesota owns edges with the sticks and in the bullpen, they don't seem to warrant such a stiff price on this game. We see excellent betting value here with Texas at the underdog odds.

Verlander gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, and Houston gets the check-mark in the bullpen comparison, so we like the Astros here. Also, of Houston's 13 wins with the "Big V" this year 10 have come by two runs or more. So we'll take the Astros and give the run and a half against the run line.

This game sets up as a double play on the MLB streak betting theory, and while we don't always abide by that method, we like it here. Los Angeles gets our baseball handicapping check-marks in the pitching match-up, with the sticks, and in the bullpen. But that price is a bit much. So we'll take a chance and give the run and a half with the Dodgers against the MLB run line.

We'd give Tampa and Chirinos the edge in the pitching match-up, but Happ has been tough on the Rays over the last season-plus. Also, while Tampa might own an advantage in the bullpen comparison, New York holds the edge with the sticks. Plus, the Yankees are just hot. We'll take New York for our free MLB pick for Thursday.

Fiers owns the edge in the pitching match-up, and while Minnesota might hold an advantage with the sticks, Oakland owns the better bullpen. Plus, the A's are playing the better ball as of late, and they're getting a home-dog price. We like Oakland for our free MLB pick here.

Houston may throw a rookie in a tough spot, but it's got the bullpen to keep things close if things go wrong early. And with other factors balancing out, we see betting value here with the Astros at the underdog price.

Texas owns the advantage in the pitching match-up, and while Los Angeles might hold slight edges with the sticks and in the bullpen they're not enough to negate Minor. So we're going with the Rangers for our free MLB pick here.

I do expect that the Indians will have some success against Orioles starter Ynoa, but scoring zero runs on 11 hits over their last two games at Camden doesn't make me feel super confident that they'll light it up. Same goes for the Orioles, sure they exploded for 26 runs in the first two, but Bieber is tough if he doesn't give up the long ball and he did make easy work of them in his lone career start against them in May. The weather forecast if it rings true also supports a lower scoring game with a strong crosswing , and we have this season's Mr. Under behind Homeplate. I have two sets of numbers that forecast this game to stay below eight runs, which would give us a comfortable win.