Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Value Pick

Date: 
September 25, 8:10 PM EDT
Location:
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Betting Odds

Moneyline: 
Cubs -165/White Sox +155
Total: 
8ov -115

The Cubs and White Sox are both already in the playoffs, but they'll still play for seeding when they meet for a three-game Windy City series starting Friday night on the South Side. Both teams are suffering from a mild case of clinch hangover; the Cubs come in lugging a three-game losing skid, the White Sox a five-game slide. How are we playing this game for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday's MLB betting odds opened the Cubs at around -145 over the White Sox, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line to -150.

The Cubs could also be found at around +105, giving the run and a half on the MLB betting run line.

Cubs vs. White Sox Set-Up

The Cubs just lost the last three games of a four-game series in Pittsburgh, falling Thursday 7-0. Just before that, they lost two of three games to Minnesota. So the Cubbies are only 1-5 over their last six games.

At 32-25 overall, the Cubs lead the NL Central by 2.5 games over second-place St. Louis, but they're also two games behind Atlanta in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming National League playoffs.

The White Sox, meanwhile, just got swept four games in Cleveland, losing Thursday 5-4. Just before that, the ChiSox lost two of three games at Cincinnati. So the Sox lug a five-game losing skid into Friday.

At 34-23, the White Sox now trail the first-place Twins by one game in the AL Central, and they're only one game ahead of the third-place Indians.

The ChiSox lead the season series with the Cubs two games to one.

Friday's Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played one month ago at Wrigley Field, a 2-1 Cubs victory.

Cease is 4/11 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last five. Last Sunday, he gave up three runs on zero hits – yea, zero hits – but seven walks (!) through just three innings of a 7-3 ChiSox loss to Cincinnati. And over his last five starts, he's allowed ten runs on 15 hits and 20 walks (!) through just 22 innings.

The White Sox are 6-5 with Cease this season, but only 2-3 over his last five starts.

In his only career start against the Cubs, one month ago, Cease allowed just two runs on four hits and three walks through six innings, although the ChiSox lost that game 2-1.

Darvish is a very solid 9/11 on quality starts this season, although he's been a touch spotty as of late.
Last Sunday, he gave up four runs and nine hits through six innings of a 4-0 Cubs loss to Minnesota. And over his last three starts, he's allowed nine runs and 20 hits through 19 innings, although he's also struck out 25 over that span.

The Cubs are 8-3 with Darvish this season, but only 1-2 over his last three starts.

In his one start, this season against the White Sox, Darvish allowed just one run and six hits through seven innings, with one walk and ten whiffs, in that 2-1 Cubs win.

Friday's Batting Splits

The Cubs are batting .227 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .318 team OBP and a .405 team slugging percentage. The Cubbies have also scored a total of just 13 runs over their last eight games. And this lineup could be without Ian Happ and Kris Bryant, who are listed as questionable for Friday with injuries.

The White Sox are batting .256/.316/.437 vs. RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

The Cubs bullpen owns a 4.18 ERA this season and a 1.30 WHIP.

The ChiSox pen owns a 3.82 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • The Cubs are 15-12 on the road this season.
  • The White Sox are 17-10 at home this season.
  • The Cubs are 25-21 against right-handed starters this season.
  • The White Sox are 21-23 vs. RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 30-26 in Cubs games this season.
  • Unders are 31-24 in White Sox games this season.
  • Unders are 14-11 in games played at Guaranteed Rate Field this season.

Cubs vs. White Sox Predictions 9/25/20

Darvish gets the check-mark in the pitching match-up, but the White Sox own edges in the splits with the sticks and in the bullpen comparison. Plus, the Cubs could be without a couple of key bats at the top of their lineup. We like the White Sox here at the home dog price.
 
Free Pick: 
Take the White Sox +155
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