Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick

Darin Zank
Date: June 24, 7:10 pm
Location: Tropicana Field
TV: MLBTV

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Bos -101/TB -109
Total: 9un -115

<p>After splitting the first two games of this three-game AL East series, the first-place Red Sox and second-place Rays play a rubber match Thursday night down in Tampa. New Ray Michael Wacha hits the hill for the home team here against Nick Pivetta for the visitors. How are we playing this game with our <a class="advblue"href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/free-mlb-picks&quot; title="Free MLB Picks">free MLB pick</a>?</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Odds</h2>
<p>Thursday's <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/odds&quot; title="Live MLB betting Odds">baseball betting lines</a> opened Tampa Bay at around -125 over Boston, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about a nickel to around -120.</p>
<h2>Red Sox-Rays MLB Betting Preview</h2>
<p>Boston took the opener of this series Tuesday night 9-5, but Tampa won Wednesday's game 8-2. The Sox won Tuesday as +105 underdogs on the baseball betting line, while the Rays won Wednesday as -145 favorites.</p>
<p>Also, both games played over totals of 7.5 and nine runs.</p>
<p>Wednesday's win snapped a seven-game losing skid for Tampa Bay.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, with Wednesday's loss, Boston is 2-3 over its last five games.</p>
<p>At 44-30 overall, the Red Sox lead the AL East by a half-game over the 44-31 Rays.</p>
<p>Also, Boston is playing way ahead of schedule against its wins over/under for this season of 80.5, while Tampa is also ahead of pace playing against its wins O/U of 85.5.</p>
<p>Boston leads this season series with Tampa four games to one.</p>
<h2>Thursday's Pitching Match-Up </h2>
<p>This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back in April, an 11-2 Boston victory.</p>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/48251&quot; title="Michael Wacha Pitching Logs">Wacha</a> is just 1/8 on quality starts this season, to go along with four appearances in relief, and he ain't been too great as of late. Last Friday, he got bombed for five runs and 11 hits through just 3 2/3 innings of a 5-1 Tampa loss to Seattle. And over his last five appearances, he's allowed 10 runs 20 hits through just 13 total innings.</p>
<p>On the season, the Rays are 5-3 when Wacha starts, and that's at least one game better than it should be.</p>
<p>In that game against the Red Sox back in April, Wacha gave up four runs and eight hits through five innings and took the loss.</p>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/100337&quot; title="Nick Pivetta Pitching Logs">Pivetta</a> is 4/14 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last three. Last Friday, he gave up three runs and six hits through five frames of a 5-3 Sox loss to Kansas City. And over his last three starts, he's allowed nine runs and 19 hits, including six home runs, through 14 2/3 innings.</p>
<p>Boston is 10-4 with Pivetta this season, but that's probably a couple of games better than it should be.</p>
<p>In his only previous career appearance against Tampa Bay, in that game back in April, Pivetta tossed five innings of two-hit, shutout ball, and picked up the W.</p>
<h2>Splits With the Sticks</h2>
<p>Boston is batting .254 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .314 team OBP and a .444 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this lineup among the top half-dozen or so in Baseball in this split.</p>
<p>Tampa is slashing .233/.324/.410 against RH pitching this season.<br />
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1358926">BOS/TB 6/24/21 Matchup Stats</a></span>
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</ul>
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<h2>The Bullpens </h2>
<p>The Red Sox bullpen owns a 3.71 ERA this season, along with a 1.39 WHIP and a 2.48 K/BB ratio.</p>
<p>The Rays pen owns a 3.13 ERA, which ranks No. 3 in the Majors, along with a 1.13 WHIP, which ranks No. 1, and a 3.28 K/BB ratio, which ranks No. 2. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top two or three bullpens in Baseball right now.</p>
<h2>MLB Betting Trends </h2>
<ul>
<li>The Red Sox are 24-13 on the road this season.</li>
<li>The Rays are 20-15 at home this season.</li>
<li>The Red Sox are 31-19 against right-handed starters this season.</li>
<li>The Rays are 27-18 vs. RH starters this season.</li>
</ul>
<h2>Totals Report </h2>
<ul>
<li>Unders are 37-35 in Red Sox games this season.</li>
<li>Overs are 42-30 in Rays games this season.</li>
<li>Overs are 5-0 in Red Sox-Rays games this season.</li>
<li>Overs are a combined 11-9 when Wacha and Pivetta start this season.</li>
<li>Totals are split 17-17 in games played at Tropicana Field this season.</li>
</ul>

Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction 6/24/21

We'll give Boston a short edge in the pitching match-up here, and while Tampa owns the better bullpen, Boston owns the edge in the splits with the sticks. Plus, the Red Sox are getting the underdog price. So we're betting Boston for our free MLB betting pick for Thursday.  

Free Pick: Take Boston -101
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