Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Analysis & Pick

Baltimore Orioles at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Analysis & Pick

Darin Zank
Date: June 7, 7:40 pm
Location: American Family Field
TV: MLBN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Bal +126/Mil -136
Total: 8un -117

<p>
Former division rivals meet for the middle game of a three-game inter-league series in Beer City Wednesday night. Former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes hits the hill for the Brew Crew here against Dean Kremer for Baltimore. How are we playing this game with our free Bal/Mil 6/7/23 pick?
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<h2>
MLB Betting Odds<br />
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<p>
Wednesday's baseball betting market opened Milwaukee and Burnes at around -135 over Baltimore and Kremer, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped the Brewers to -140.
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<h2>
Orioles-Brewers Betting Preview<br />
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<p>
Milwaukee took the opener of this series Tuesday night, 4-3. The Brewers trailed that game 3-2 but tied it with a run in the bottom of the eighth, then won it with a run in the bottom of the tenth. Milwaukee won Tuesday as a -130 favorite with Freddy Peralta while the game was played under a total of eight runs. With Tuesday's win, the Brewers are 4-1 over their last five games. At 33-28 overall, Milwaukee leads the mediocre NL Central by a half-game over second-place Pittsburgh. With Tuesday's loss, the Orioles, following that super start to this season, are only 4-6 over their last ten games. But at 37-23 overall, Baltimore owns the third-best record in the American League.
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<h2>
Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up<br />
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<p>
By our strict standards, <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/213463&quot; title="Corbin Burnes Pitching Game Stats">Burnes</a> is 5/12 on quality starts this season. Last Friday at Cincinnati, he allowed three runs on two hits and four walks through six innings of a game Milwaukee eventually won 5-4 in extra innings. And just before that, he held San Francisco to one run through seven innings, although the Brewers lost that game 3-1. On the season, Milwaukee is 6-6 with Burnes, and that's about what it should be, based on his performances. In his only career start against Baltimore, in April of last season, Burnes tossed seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball in a 4-2 Brewers win. <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/330437&quot; title="Dean Kremer Pitching Game Logs">Kremer</a> is also 5/12 on quality starts this year and just a couple of outs short of three for his last three. Last Friday, he held San Francisco to two runs and five hits through six innings of a 3-2 Orioles win. And over his last three starts, he's held foes to six runs and 20 hits through 17 1/3 innings, with six walks against 18 whiffs. Baltimore is 8-4 with Kremer this season, 5-1 his last six times out. This start will be Kremer's first career action against Milwaukee.
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<h2>
Splits With the Sticks<br />
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<p>
Baltimore is batting .245 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .312 team OBP and a .411 team slugging percentage. Milwaukee is slashing .236/.313/.390 against right-handed pitching.
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<h2>
The Bullpens<br />
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<p>
The Brewers bullpen owns a 4.04 ERA this season, along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.50 K/BB ratio. The Orioles pen owns a 4.16 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 2.80 K/BB ratio.
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<h2>
MLB Betting Trends<br />
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<p>
Baltimore is 20-11 on the road this season and 22-15 against right-handed starters. Milwaukee is 17-12 at home and 24-16 against right-handed starters.
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<h2>
Totals Report<br />
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<ul>
<li>
The overs are 30-27 in Orioles games this season.
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The unders are 34-25 in Brewers games.
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The unders are 16-12 at American Family Field this season.
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The overs are a combined 13-10 with Burnes and Kremer this season.
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</ul>

Orioles at Brewers Free Pick 6/7/23

We give Burnes the edge in the pitching match-up, but it's closer than first glance might indicate. From there, Baltimore owns an edge in the splits with the sticks, while Milwaukee might own a short edge in the bullpen comparison. Ultimately, we like betting on good teams coming off losses, and we consider the Orioles a pretty good team. We're betting Baltimore to bounce back Wednesday night, catching an underdog price.

Free Pick: Take Baltimore +126
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