Atlanta Braves vs. L.A. Dodgers NLDS Game 1 Pick - Odds and Betting Preview

October 4, 3:33 PM EDT

Betting Odds

Dodgers -175 / Braves +155

MLB Betting Line

The Dodgers opened this NLDS Game 1 as a big favorite at -225, but as of Thursday morning they are posted at -175 while the total of seven runs has not changed. In the run-line wager for this game, the Braves are at -145 getting 1.5 runs and the Dodgers are at +125 giving 1.5 runs.

Atlanta at LA MLB Game Set-up

The L.A. Dodgers host the Atlanta Braves in the first game of the NLDS.

In their last game of the regular season, the Braves lost to the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1. The Braves scored one run on four hits, and the Phillies scored three runs on six hits.

The Braves did not end the season well losing two in a row and four of their last five games. However, they rested some key players for those games, as Atlanta had already wrapped up the NL East. They finished the season eight games up on 2nd place Washington in the division.

In their last game, the Dodgers beat the Colorado Rockies 5-2 in the NL West tiebreaker game that gave them the division title. The Dodgers scored five runs on nine hits, and the Rockies scored two runs on four hits.

The Dodgers ended the season well winning their last four games and also won seven o of their previous nine games. In their four-game winning streak, the Dodgers have allowed nine runs with six of them coming in one game.

This season the Braves rank tied for 10th in runs scored and 7th in team ERA and the Dodgers rank 5th in runs scored and 2nd in team ERA.

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This season the Dodgers won five of their seven games against the Braves. The Dodgers took two of three games facing the Braves in the lone home series, which was in the first half. The Dodgers have won 25 of their last 35 games facing the Braves and have won four of their last five home games against them.

Pitching Match-Up

Atlanta: Mike Foltynewicz (13-10 2.85 ERA)
L.A.: Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3 1.97 ERA)

In Foltynewicz's last start of the regular season, he had a good one only giving up one earned run and only allowing one hit in a 10-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves have won three of his last four starts, including his previous two, wherein the three wins he only gave up four earned runs while in the one loss he gave up six earned runs. Foltynewicz has allowed just one earned run in three of his last five starts. This season Foltynewicz was an All-Star and tied for 6th in the NL in ERA, 6th in strikeouts, and 5th in hits allowed per nine innings.

In Foltynewicz’s lone appearance this season against the Dodgers at home on July 27th he gave up four earned runs on six hits in five innings in a 4-1 Atlanta loss. The Braves have won four of Foltynewicz's last five road starts, but have lost four of his previous five starts against a team with a winning record.

In Ryu’s last start of the regular season, he was solid only giving up one earned run on four hits in six innings in a 3-1 win over the San Francisco Giants. To say he ended the well would be an understatement, as the Dodgers won his last three starts where he totaled 19 innings and only gave up one earned run. Ryu missed three months of the season with a groin injury, but once off the DL, he had an ERA of 1.88 in nine outings while striking out 53 batters and only walking five.

This outing is Ryu’s first start of the season against the Braves. The Dodgers have won 10 of Ryu’s last 14 home starts and have won four of his previous five starts facing a team with a winning record.

Braves at Dodgers MLB Betting Angles

The Dodgers are 25-10 in their last 35 games against the Braves.

The Dodgers have won four of their last five home games against the Braves.

In the last four games between these teams, the total has gone Over every time.

Straight Up / Over/Under / Run Line Record

Atlanta Braves: 90-72 SU / O/U 78-79 / Run Line W/L 82-80
L.A. Dodgers: 92-71 SU / O/U 76-80 / Run Line W/L 74-89

Atlanta at Los Angeles MLB Key Betting Trends

  • ATL is 1-4 in their last five games
  • ATL is 1-4 in their previous five road games
  • ATL has an Under record of 4-1 in their last five games
  • LA is 6-1 in their last seven home games
  • LA is 25-10 in their previous 35 home games
  • LA has an Over record of 6-2-2 in their last ten games

Key Player Injuries


[SS] 10/02/2018 - Dansby Swanson is out indefinitely ( Hand )
[P] 09/15/2018 - Luiz Gohara 60-day DL (09/14) ( Shoulder )
[P] 07/31/2018 - Peter Moylan 60-day DL (07/31) ( Ribs )
[P] 06/28/2018 - Brandon McCarthy 10-day DL (06/28) ( Knee )
[P] 06/27/2018 - Darren O'Day 60-day DL (06/27) ( Hamstring )
[P] 06/22/2018 - Jose Ramirez 60-day DL (04/18) ( Shoulder )
[P] 06/22/2018 - Michael Soroka 60-day DL (06/20) ( Shoulder )
[P] 08/08/2018 - Max Fried 10-day DL (08/08) ( Groin )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Jacob Lindgren 60-day DL (03/26) ( Elbow )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Chase Whitley 10-day DL (03/26) ( Heel )
[P] 03/26/2018 - Grant Dayton 60-day DL (02/14) ( Elbow )


[SS] 05/01/2018 - Corey Seager is out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Julio Urias 60-day DL (02/23) ( Shoulder )
[P] 03/30/2018 - Tom Koehler 60-day DL (03/26) ( Shoulder )
[P] 09/03/2018 - Brock Stewart 60-day DL (09/03) ( Oblique )
[P] 09/18/2018 - Daniel Hudson 60-day DL (08/25) ( Forearm )
[P] 08/18/2018 - Erik Goeddel 60-day DL (08/17) ( Elbow )
[P] 06/10/2018 - Dennis Santana 60-day DL (06/05) ( Rotator Cuff )

Get more details: Atlanta at Los Angeles MLB Match-Up

Atlanta at Los Angeles MLB Prediction 10/04/2018

A great pitching matchup in this Game 1 of the NDLS with two starters that have been solid lately and for the season. Ryu has only given up one earned run in his last three starts, and Foltynewicz has allowed three earned runs in his previous two outings. Foltynewicz did not have the best outing of the season facing the Dodgers, but he will have a good start in this game. Ryu will have a good outing as well, and this game may come down to which bullpen can get it done. The Dodgers have the edge in that aspect, as their bullpen ranked 8th in the Majors in ERA and the Braves ranked 17th. The last time the Braves made the playoffs, it was back in 2013 where they faced the Dodgers in the NLDS and lost in four games.

L.A. manager Dave Roberts pushed Ace Clayton Kershaw’s start to Game 2 of this series to start Ryu in Game 1. Atlanta knows they have a lot of pressure to win Game 1 facing the Dodgers Ace in Game 2 even though Kershaw’s post-season struggles are well documented. While the head-to-head trends and the oddsmakers have the Dodgers as the pick in this game, I am taking the Braves. They were a surprise playoff team this season, and they have much less pressure on them in this series facing a Dodgers' team that has a ton of pressure to bring a World Series title back to La La Land. The Braves will play loose, and in a low scoring affair they will win and take a 1-0 series lead.

Free Pick: 
Take the Braves +155

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