Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Cliff Knox
Date: September 11, 6:30 pm
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: NBC Sports

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Atl -135/Phil +115
Total: 8.5

The Atlanta Braves (93-49) are set to face the Philadelphia Phillies (78-64) in a critical matchup on Monday at Citizens Bank Park, marking the beginning of a four-game series. The Braves have recently secured a playoff spot and are now focused on securing the top seed for the upcoming National League playoffs. This contest will feature a unique double-header, with a makeup game in the early afternoon followed by a regularly scheduled evening game.

The second game of this double-header is expected to see Michael Lorenzen on the mound for the struggling Phillies, while Atlanta may opt to rely on its bullpen.

MLB Betting Odds

As for the second game, the initial betting lines opened with the Braves as -135 favorites, and the over/under is set at 8.5 runs.

Braves-Phillies Betting Preview

The Braves are coming off a series win against the Pittsburgh Pirates, taking two out of three games, with a 5-2 victory in Sunday's rubber match. However, they had previously lost two of three games to the St. Louis Cardinals and a series with the Los Angeles Dodgers. This has resulted in a 3-4 record over their last seven games.

Despite this recent hiccup, the Braves maintain a solid 93-49 overall record and lead the Dodgers by six games in the race for the best record in the National League, with just 20 games left to play in the regular season.

On the other hand, the Phillies recently dropped two of three games at home to the Miami Marlins, losing Sunday's rubber match 5-4. Before that, they had taken two of three from the San Diego Padres and won the last game of a series against the Milwaukee Brewers. Over their last seven games, the Phillies hold a 4-3 record.

With an overall record of 78-64, Philadelphia leads the NL wild-card race by 4.5 games over the fourth-place Marlins. In their season series against the Braves, they trail four games to two.

Monday's Pitching Match-Up

Michael Lorenzen has struggled since his no-hitter, going 0-4 in quality starts since achieving that milestone one month ago. In his most recent start against the San Diego Padres, Lorenzen was charged with seven runs (six earned) and eight hits over six innings, resulting in an 8-0 defeat for Philadelphia. Over his last four starts, he has allowed 19 earned runs and 32 hits, including six home runs, in just 21 innings.

Lorenzen had an 8-11 record when he was with the Cincinnati Reds earlier this season, and the Phillies have gone 3-3 with him since the trade. In his one start this season against Atlanta, back in June while still with the Reds, Lorenzen surrendered six runs and three homers through six innings in a 6-5 Cincinnati loss.

Splits With the Sticks

The Braves have been solid at the plate this season, batting .271 against right-handed pitching, with a .341 team on-base percentage and a .493 team slugging percentage—leading the league in all three categories.

In contrast, the Phillies are slashing .259/.330/.440 this season.

The Bullpens

Philadelphia's bullpen has a 3.70 ERA this season, accompanied by a 1.29 WHIP and a 2.70 K/BB ratio.

The Braves' bullpen, on the other hand, boasts a 3.50 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 3.18 K/BB ratio, making it one of the top-performing bullpens in baseball.

MLB Betting Trends

The Braves have excelled on the road with a 46-24 record this season, and they have been strong against right-handed starters, with a 74-41 record. The Phillies hold a 42-28 record at home.

Totals Report

Throughout the season, the over has hit 77 times in Braves games and 69 times in Phillies games. When playing at Citizens Bank Park, the under has hit 33 times.

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

In the pitching matchup, the Braves hold the advantage due to their strong bullpen, while Lorenzen has struggled recently. Moreover, the Braves boast one of the best line-ups in baseball. The only concern is whether Atlanta might rest some starters in the second game of the double-header. Therefore, it's recommended to wait for the line-ups before making a final decision, but most likely, betting on the Braves is the way to go.

Free Pick: Take Atlanta -135
Get $60 Free Picks