NBA Basketball Picks - Daily ATS Predictions
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We are going to go ahead and pivot a bit on our approach in this one. Instead of spotting points or taking them back, we will go ahead and stay clear of that initiative altogether. Cleveland is likely to be a sexy pick with points after their Game Four win, but at the same token Golden State is bound to be offered at an inflated price given their dominance in Oakland all season long coupled with their performance there in the playoffs and this series. Instead what we should focus on is scoring. In Game Four, records of all sorts were broken. In some cases this can foster an overreaction on the Over. However, what has taken place instead was the vantage that Game Four affairs were a one-off and thus the scoring is expected to be capped here in Game Five. However, Cleveland has found a wrinkle that it can use to contend with this juggernaut team and thus the scoring will likely once again be optimized in Game Five. Given the fact this market is just two points higher than the preceding contests, we will go ahead and play on the Over.
Very simply, Golden State seems to be unstoppable. LeBron James himself has stated that he has never faced a team with the kind of firepower that the Warriors possess. A beleaguered and stunned Cleveland Cavaliers seemingly have no answer for this juggernaut. With this being said, the Warriors should not expect Cleveland to be a walk in the park in Game Four as assuredly the Cavaliers will want to make this interesting before they are sent away. Will Golden State win the NBA title? It seems certain. Will the 2016-17 Golden State team be placed among the best in NBA history? Sure. However, these prognostications and this heraldry likely puts is in position to play on value as Cleveland has been all but written off. Cleveland overall has been strong at home this season and the fact we can get them at home with a likely inflated point spread is something we will have to take advantage of. Given the fact, Golden State has been a cash cow this entire post-season, it would be difficult to fathom that they don’t have a let-down against the spread when the highest expectations are materializing on their behalf at this current juncture.
The Warriors added Durant to the mix following last season’s unexpected collapse against Cleveland in the NBA Finals and that move has already paid some huge dividends towards avenging that loss. I cannot see Golden State taking its foot off the gas now in hot pursuit of reclaiming the top spot in the NBA after winning it all in 2015.
Wednesday night could be Cleveland’s best chance to avoid a sweep in the series, but it is still a bad spot to start going against the Warriors in the midst of a highly impressive run both SU and ATS. Lay the three points, take Golden State.
Many Cleveland takers may hit the panic switch after seeing the result of Game One but let us remind the masses that this was the same team that defeated Golden State last year when they were trailed 2-0 after the first two games in Oakland and then went forward to defeat Golden State twice in Oakland after they trailed 3-1. Very simply, LeBron James knows how to win and Game One is no barometer of how good this Cleveland basketball team is and what they are capable of. Despite the Warriors winning by 22, the market itself has been reluctant to give much more wiggle room to any takers. This says that the Game Two forecast is one that expects the festivities to be a bit more competitive. Once again there is value on Cleveland and they are likely offered at a price that reflects inflated numbers on Golden State’s behalf. Given the fact we are getting the NBA champs in this scenario at the enhanced price, we will champion the fact that we will gladly take that position every time. Expect Game Two to be a much closer contest compared to the opener.
This market opened with Cleveland as a five-point dog and very quickly we saw the public smother the Warriors driving the price to its current juncture. It is very likely that the Warriors not losing a game yet in the post-season is shaping the perception of this market as they have looked unstoppable. Nevertheless, we are getting the defending NBA champions at perhaps a rare enhanced price given this scenario. There is enormous value on Cleveland and when offered with what might be inflated points, we will gladly take that every time given the fact King James and company have won in the Oracle twice when all the chips were down.
Boston is a team that prides itself on being a scrappy club that does not yield to anyone or anything. It was this attitude that powered the Celtics to a #1 seed in the NBA Playoffs and afforded them a chance to pull off the stunning defeat in Cleveland in Game Three without their best player Isaiah Thomas. Before a home crowd, expect the Celtics to go off on their shield in this contest and give King James and his merry men everything they can handle in the TD Garden. Given the fact so many are expecting Cleveland to win this contest, the debate is over the final result and not whether Boston has a chance. This is a very dangerous position to take as many takers may be overlooking a very talented Boston team that likely has more than enough wiggle room to come in under the number, if they don’t send this series back to Cleveland.
To the eyes of many seemingly lightning cannot strike twice again and the market will continue to offer these lofty numbers it refuses to come off of. Such a situation presents with an opportunity to step in again and take back a generous offering given the fact much of the public believes Game Three was a fluke. It is indeed likely that Cleveland will win Game Four. However, the number offered here has reflects a trend that has been taking shape all season long with a defending NBA Champion and name brand team such as the Cavs: they are typically a shaky play, overall. Especially so in Cleveland, the price presented is likely inflated and thus the Cavaliers have been a very non-for-profit choice over the course of the 2016-17 campaign. The Celtics have proven they have plenty of weapons as shooting guard Avery Bradley has emerged as a post-season catalyst for the East’s best team. While LeBron may be seeking records and another crown, we have a chance to snag some value here in Game Four. Take the points.
With just one game, we have seen the price on Golden State double reflecting what transpired in Game Three. Almost certainly, this market is playing on public perception as the Warriors had a little more difficulty with San Antonio on its own court in Game Three when comparing the margin of victory between Game Two and Game Three. With this being said, San Antonio is without two key players making them a risky play. However, the Spurs are still ever formidable and you can rest assured they are going to go off on their shield in hopes of deflecting a potential sweep. Golden State’s stock is so high at the moment that it cannot be any higher. Golden State despite being an economy play when they spot single-digit points have been subjected to some lofty lays, as well. In these situations they have been far less profitable. Given the fact the sweep is expected here, this is likely a great opportunity to snag home points at an enhanced price.
We are not proponents of playing road chalk but this situation sets up perfectly. Despite by winning by more than 36 points when Golden State was priced as a -13.5 favorite in Game Two. Now, there is a chance that Leonard can return for this game and that nebulous prospect is what is more or less fueling the price. Had Leonard been confirmed to not return, we could expect the price to soar as his absence was clearly a huge deal in Game Two. With this being said, we will not take any chances on San Antonio even if they are at a home and being spotted points. Golden State overall as a team of its caliber and propensity to be overvalued especially in high-profile contests has been non-existent in the playoffs when spotting single-digit points. As a favorite of 9.5 points or less the Warriors are 4-0 ATS. We will go ahead and step in with the public yet again on this one.
Typically this situation has all the makings to be an overreaction after Cleveland besieged Boston in Game One. While tracking the public consensus and the overall line movements, the Cavaliers seem poised to be an ideal fade here with the chance to take back the top team in the East at an enhanced price. However, Cleveland has defied convention here and they have been an economical choice throughout the playoffs overall despite their prestige and appeal. The fact remains, the sharpest book in the industry has priced this game with Cleveland spotting an additional half of a point, thus our position is to side with the market given the fact we can grab Cleveland for half of a point less than the industry leader. In a rare situation, we will go ahead and side with the public on this one and swallow the points.
Cleveland has been perfect in these playoffs SU and it has also been a pretty good bet ATS, but I do believe that a 10-day layoff could have an impact on its performance in this series opener. The Celtics may be battling a bit of fatigue on their end following that extended series against the Wizards, but they have all the momentum in their corner playing Game 1 at home.
If Boston is going to have any chance at keeping this series close, it knows it needs to win Game 1 to gain that early edge and I like its chances to get it done with the SU victory on Wednesday night.
Though Boston was defeated in Game Six, the fact they came within a point of sending the Wizards home is what is likely selling this market as the popular opinion is that there is no chance Washington gets out of Boston alive with a win given the fact they have yet to be competitive there so far this series. When it comes to playoff series on the year, this series is likely the most exciting but as we know in Game Seven anything can happen therefore there is more value certainly in taking the points in what will be an unpredictable and likely wild affair. Don’t be shocked if Washington does the unthinkable as they eliminated the Atlanta Hawks in Atlanta in the first round.
This market in itself can be extraordinarily precarious to approach but in weighing the options, leaning on the Spurs would be the more advisable approach. The Spurs know how to win in this arena and play in games of this consequence and if that allows us to take them back with a likely inflated price at reduced juice, that strategy overall plays into our playbook. The fact remains Golden State has appeared so dominant and comes into this game so well-rested that all they can do is plummet in terms of performance at this point. Therefore we will fade the points and take what is given here.
The consensus has more or less banked on home court advantage throughout this series and so far that has been a profitable venture for any who laid juice on the home court. However, as we saw last night with San Antonio mopping up Houston in the Toyota Center, home court advantage can be nullified in one foul swoop. Boston trailed Chicago 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals before they would embark on a rampage and turn the series upside down with four consecutive wins against the Bulls where seemingly the Celtics did whatever they wanted, where ever they wanted. The Game Five result against Washington would suggest that the Celtics are in position here to deliver the final knockout blow to John Wall and company. Given the fact we can take back Boston yet again with a decent tag, we will fade the public and popular forecast of this contest.
The home team in this series has not only won each game, it has been able to dominate play with a double-digit margin of victory. I am looking for more of the same this Wednesday night with Isaiah Thomas poised for another monster game in from of the home-town crowd at TD Garden.
With the current spread sitting at just 4.5 points, I am jumping all over the Celtics in Game 5 with another dominating win that easily covers the spread.
Typically we fancy playing on a team on the Money Line or against the spread in almost all of our plays. However, given the injuries both teams have suffered and the uncertainty that these injuries create for both sides, there may be more value here in an Over/Under play, exclusively. The Spurs have lost key player, point man Tony Parker for the rest of the season. Parker has been instrumental in virtually every San Antonio post-season run previously and his absence will assuredly be a detriment to their cause. Houston also announced that forward, Nene will be absent in Game Five and he has been a breakout star of sorts for the Rockets in their playoff campaign. The effects of both these injuries may garner a more conservative approach by both teams and thus the Under is likely the best choice here in Game Five.
The Warriors have more or less defied convention in this series so far as they have covered as a favorite in two of the first three games in this series. With many analysts and pundits now forecasting the sweep, this could be the ideal time to once again step in on the Jazz. Targeting teams like Golden State is often a sound strategy because when they get on a roll or generate reactions the lumber one is required to lay becomes heavier. Laying road points can be a very risky play and Utah will likely be the next Golden State victim in this game. Given their backs are against the wall however, look for the Jazz to go out with a fight in what will likely be a robust lower-scoring feud compared to recent affairs. We are leaning on both the Jazz and the Under in this one.
In a rare occasion, we get an opportunity to take back the best team in the East in terms of wins and losses at a likely favorable price. When that situation sets up, we will be prompted to step in every time. Let’s not forget that targeting overreactions is not a practice solely that targets favorites. Sometimes, an underdog can actually undervalue a blue-chip team such as the Celtics. Home court advantage is a key point of this series and an area of focus for markets to value. So far in this series, the home team is 3-0 SU and this is a prevailing factor in the price one must pay in this situation. Furthermore the home team has been the favorite in each of these contests and has also successfully covered, so the consensus is emphasizing this in their reaction. The fact remains, the Wizards won by nearly 30 points and they are priced cheaper than they were in Game Three. This undoubtedly seems to be a trap play for anyone stepping on the Wizards and we will have no part.
In 2016, a similar situation unfolded as Cleveland jumped out to an early lead against the Raptors after Game Two when they dominated Toronto on its own court. Toronto would claw its way back into the series with an impressive home stand before Cleveland would send them off in six. Given the decimation Cleveland pulled off on Wednesday, the public is bound to react accordingly in this market with the Cavaliers appearing short-priced. However, as we have frequented in numerous occasions this season, the Cavaliers have hovered around .500 on the road all-season long. Even in their previous series with Indiana, they had to rally back from a 25-point deficit to pick up one win in Indy followed by a narrow escape in the successful sweep of the Pacers in Indianapolis. Toronto is a far different animal. The Raptors are known for a robust home court advantage and they know how to play Cleveland in this environment in games of this magnitude. The Raptors are set up perfectly here for an upset.
The price tag next to the Utah Jazz on the Money Line is an attractive one and the public’s propensity to step in on the Jazz at this price reveals the perceived value of this basketball team. However, sportsbooks don’t offer ridiculous propositions such as this, if it was bound to hit be that would it absolutely crush profits. The price on Utah in the Money Line is too good to be true and given the fact the Warriors lost just five times at the ‘O’, this year, the spread is a more viable selection. Given the same public’s behavior to lay the points to the Jazz, this once again seems to be a scenario where takers are biting an inflated number. The Jazz should have enough elbow room given their physical prowess to come in under this figure.
FREE PICK to BET: Take Utah +12.5