NBA Basketball Picks - Daily ATS Predictions
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The Grizzlies feature some personnel that can simply get in Houston’s face and challenge their finesse approach to the game as a whole. The Grizzlies have the blueprint here to certainly make this game a hard-fought win for the Rockets if they were to even escape. Targeting a team off a tough loss on the following night is typically a great angle and Memphis has the tools here to not only win but do so decisively. Memphis is more or a less a no-name team contrary to the marquee player James Harden that Houston boasts. However, Music City buys in to an ideology where their philosophy is to win games by making other teams play outside of their comfort zone. So far, this approach has worked as they are the only team to take down Golden State twice this season. We are going Memphis on the Money Line.
We have been vehement in our strategy to lay Golden State whenever the time was most opportune by virtue of the fact this is a team that is bound to be spotting inflated numbers anywhere they go. This situation sets up perfectly yet again as Houston has already beaten this team in Oakland this year, now they get them at home in Clutch City where they have been a pest for them historically. The Rockets are not the .500 team we saw last year with a failed point guard experiment and a maligned defense. No, this team has become a monster since The Beard moved from the 2 to the 1. In the off-season, Houston went out and scooped up Eric Gordon and the rest is history. The Warriors may have a star-studded cast but they have fallen on the road at the Lakers this year. There is no reason to suspect a team as good as Houston cannot knock them off outright in this one.
In the early going we have seen yet another lean on the Spurs against the spread as the public are more willing to spot the points to the road pooch Denver, as 56% like San Antonio on their own court. In Money Line markets, the Nuggets offer a huge purse as they are a +800 road dog. Contrarily, the Spurs are an extremely expensive -1300 home favorite. The Over/Under Line is currently offered at 205, with a 79% of the consensus liking the Over. A line movement of 1.5 points from 203.5 mirrors the current trend.
While the Spurs continue to spot huge points and lose against the spread, we will continue our assault. We have saw the Spurs in this exact situation against Minnesota, just two days ago. The Spurs were spotting huge points and failed to cover. Fortunately, the Spurs did manage to win this one as oppose to lose outright as they did against Milwaukee. Denver’s offense is extraordinarily potent and this is a basketball team that can overcome in a deficit in a matter of minutes. We have heralded in the weapons that this team has at its disposal and given the fact they come in to this game viewed as a bit of a sacrificial lamb, they offer tremendous upside. San Antonio is 1-3 ATS in their previous four as a double-digit favorite, contrarily the Nuggets are red hot at the moment thus giving them the perfect opportunity to strike as a potent live dog.
We have been steadfast in targeting Charlotte when they are away from home but we have been apt to step in when they seem to be undervalued at home. Right now, the Hornets look in complete disarray but this is the perfect scenario for them to get back on track. Portland has been abysmal on the road all season long and they live and die by their offense. The bad news is that they play in the Western Conference and many are astute to the tricks up the sleeves of Lillard and McCollum. Right now, Charlotte does not seem to be a great play spotting points to anyone. However, there is just cause here given the fact we get reduced juice and a likely lower price tag given their recent woes. Perfect time to buy in on the Hornets at home in the Queen City against a Portland Trailblazers team that has been terrible outside of Rip City.
The Thunder find themselves in pretty good position to pull off a SU upset on Wednesday night if they can catch Golden State still basking in Monday night’s much needed victory against its nemesis. At the very least, Oklahoma City should be able to make a game of it behind a highly motivated Westbrook going up against his former teammate Durant for the second time this season.
I am always leery of betting on the Warriors in light of their costly 18-22-1 record ATS overall and while I do not see them losing this game SU, I do see Oklahoma State covering the current 12.5-point spread.
We have seen San Antonio in this exact situation against Milwaukee, a week ago. The Spurs were spotting huge points to the Deers and they would lose outright at home with much of the public all over the Spurs. Fast forward to their encounter with the Phoenix Suns in Mexico City and once again the Spurs would lose outright as a double-digit favorite. The fact that the public will continue to swallow these points in abundance showcases the fact that many are willing to scoff down the premium associated with taking back a blue-chip team like San Antonio. With this being said, the number is likely inflated and given the fact this has been a recent problem for the Spurs, we once again have an opportunity at a quality fade. The Spurs cannot be trusted spotted points at this time.
Once again we are in a position here to get Cleveland at a remarkably economical price. LeBron James and his supporting cast need no introduction but given the fact the Cavs beat the Warriors twice in Oakland to win the NBA Finals, they are clearly immune to Golden State’s apparent home court advantage. Cleveland at a reduced price is always a good play. When you factor in the notion that it is reduced juice as well, we will come in every time. Cleveland may also be worth a look on the Money Line as we have seen Golden State laying heavier lumber against more nominal opposition and lose outright in Oakland.
As we have highlighted previously, Sacramento has been a tough riddle to solve as the Kings have the talent but fail to produce the wins to complement the personnel. You simply never know what you are going to get. Nevertheless, the Thunder have had a lot of issues on the road this year and that is our position entering this contest. Oklahoma City has an overwhelming advantage playing at home, as they are just 9-11 away from the Chesapeake Energy Arena. This has been a common motif with the Thunder and we have used this angle before and found success laying the Thunder and the points they spot to opponents. Oklahoma City despite the commendable record is not a good enough team to spot points to anyone on the road which is why although they have six more wins than Sacramento they entered as just a Pick-Em. The public smothering an economically priced Thunder propelled this market to its current state and allows us to step in on Sacramento with enhanced value. Do not be surprised if Sacramento pulls an upset outright.
We have seen both teams in a position before where we liked to fade the Hornets on the road and conversely take action on Philadelphia. The spot here for both teams, once again allows us to take back Philadelphia where they offer tremendous value and where we can go the other way with Charlotte. We faded the Hornets when they traveled to Chicago and Detroit and we found success there as in both these situations, the Hornets were overvalued mirroring their current trend as a marginal road outfit. Contrarily, the 76ers are a team that are almost always undervalued and taking back more points than they should be. This is clearly evident in their current two-game win streak and now fortifying the fact the Sixers have covered five of their last six against the spread. There is certainly a fair amount of temptation to call for Philly on the MoneyLine and we would never dissuade anyone thinking about such a wager. However, we will be conservative here and take the points be that there will likely be more for the taking by the close of this market. We get a chance to ride an unexpected club riding a hot hand with inflated points coming in its direction, this is a rare but opportune scenario to do such a thing. But we will strike while we can.
We are going to simply continue our assault on the Knicks. The Knicks are in complete dischord and disarray and while they are riding the doldrums, we will take back any team we can that offers value. For those who are still keen on the Knicks, they are assuming history will repeat itself and New York will once again win against Chicago. The same proposition was made against Philly last night and the Sixers picked up the win. Given the fact we can reduce the juice here and get points against the Knicks, we will do just that and take Chicago with the points.
The spot here that the Sixers come in, once again allows us to take back Philadelphia where they offer tremendous value. The Knicks have been nothing like the team many were expecting to see in 2016 after all the acquisitions they made in the off-season. As a result of the recent debacles the Knicks have undergone, it is only a matter of team before the wheels come off this franchise and chaos breaks out within the Knicks ranks. The 76ers are a team we frequently like to back as they are almost always undervalued and taking back more points than they should be. The Sixers have covered four of their previous five against the spread and are likely coming in to this contest charged up and feeling fresh after they took down Brooklyn as a home dog. Contrary to the Knicks, Philadelphia always plays with no fear and more often than not they are live dog and tougher challenge for any team that is not prepared for them. The Knicks may be swept up in such a situation. For many aboard the Knicks, they are assuming history will repeat itself and New York will once again assert themselves upon the 76ers. However, given the recent events surrounding New York, it is hard to take action on them, let alone spot points to anyone with a time in such disarray. Sixers outright is the call.
This matchup comes down to the Grizzlies’ ability to contain Westbrook like they did in the first meeting this season when he was held to 21 points. Oklahoma City has the advantage of playing on its home court this time around where it is 14-6 SU with a 12-8 record ATS.
Both teams are coming off a pair of much needed wins to help keep pace in the West, but I am leaning towards Oklahoma City both SU and ATS on Wednesday night. The home team has dominated this matchup in recent years and I see that betting trend holding true this time around as well.
Milwaukee hasn’t forgotten about that December 5th meeting with the Spurs in the BMO Harris Bradley Center and assuredly the Bucks would love to have that one back. While San Antonio may have won the game, Milwaukee knows they can play with them and will likely make this contest a focal point of their entire 2016-17 season. The Deers love to step up and play good teams hard and given the fact San Antonio is spotting this amount of points to the Bucks, clearly Milwaukee is getting no respect. The fact that the public will swallow these points in abundance showcases the fact that many are willing to eat the premium associated with taking back a blue-chip team like San Antonio. With this being said, the number is likely inflated and given the fact Milwaukee comes in to this game with a lack of faith by many they set-up great to be a problem for the Spurs on the court, paving the way for a quality fade.
Sacramento has been a tough riddle to solve as the Kings have the talent but fail to produce the wins to complement the personnel. Respectively, the Kings have been outright owned by the Warriors and that narrative is clearly driving the market here both in price and perspective. With this being said, the Warriors have been extremely prone to being overvalued and Friday’s loss typifies this. We are by no means calling for the upset but we have to like Sacramento’s position entering this game as Golden State is recovering from what could be one of their most stunning defeats this entire season. We have an opportunity to here to take points with less juice and we have to like that scenario considering the Kings have been a more economical option against the spread than the NBA-leading Golden State Warriors. Regardless of what happened on Friday, many see this as a bounce-back game for Golden State and while they will likely get the win, the amount of points they are spotting is a risky play given what has recently transpired.
Atlanta has been a virtual .500 basketball team on the road this season even with their recent slew of victories. Despite the roll they have been on they are marginally priced here which entices action for anyone to step in on the Hawks. Perhaps no other scenario could steer action away from Dallas. Dallas despite a losing record has also been close to a 50/50 proposition at home this season in spite of their troubles. With new players coming in, wrinkles needed to be ironed out but it seems the Mavericks are finally beginning to find some chemistry. Derron Williams, Harrison Barnes and Wesley Matthews came in to Dallas to revitalize this franchise and seemingly this team is playing a better brand of basketball now as the own wins against both Los Angeles teams recently as well as Portland. This is also a Dallas team that took cross-state rival Houston to overtime and played Golden State tough. Dallas is in a great spot here with a potentially sets-up the Hawks to be torpedoed as they have lost to teams like Minnesota on the road in ghastly fashion already this year.
We saw Memphis come in in a similar capacity when they took down the Warriors in the FedEx Forum in December. Memphis absolutely controlled the Warriors, holding their vaunted offense to under 90 points while hoisting 110 themselves. Memphis recollects how to win to against this team and undoubtedly the change in scenery has spotted them three more points as a result of the locational shift even if they took care of business against the Warriors previously. What we have here is a true value play as we can take more points with less juice. We are not going to be bold enough to call for the upset as that seems to be a rare phenomenon in Oakland but then again stranger things have happened before.
We are going to now head the other way and lay Charlotte after they come in off an impressive win to say the least. The Hornets were in position to procure such a result as they have been a quality outfit at home all season. However, we have seen Charlotte have some difficulties on the road this season as they are just 8-9 away from the Queen City. A similar position was taken when the Hornets took to the road against Chicago and we found success. Detroit even with their loss at home against Indiana coupled with Charlotte’s win has still priced them as a favorite. This is no mistake as the market is astute to the let-down scenarios Charlotte is undoubtedly prone to. We are going to once again ride the trend the Hornets have undertaken and fade a likely overreaction here. Detroit has beaten Cleveland in The Palace so there is no reason to suspect they cannot take down the Hornets. With respect to this, Detroit has failed to cover as a favorite the last two times they were at home, losing outright and thus it dissuades action but nonetheless the match-up here sets up favorably for the Pistons to change their fortune as they hold advantages against Charlotte in shooting efficiency, defense and turnovers. Oklahoma City is an offensive-oriented team that takes many shots and commits many turnovers. The basis of their game is to outscore opponents regardless. For Detroit their strategy is entirely different and it can likely bode success for them in this situation against a Charlotte team that was forced to score 123 points to beat OKC. Detroit won’t offer as many concessions.
What we have here is yet another continuation of our mining for “buy-back” situations. We laid Charlotte on the road at Chicago by virtue of a reaction to the Bulls being routed by the visiting Bucks. As a result of this much of the public went the other way with Charlotte and they were summarily let-down when the Hornets were swatted. As a result of the consensus taking enhanced points on Charlotte, we were able to get Chicago at a reduced price. Now we will get the same chance afforded to us with the Hornets who are 11-7 at home this season. For Oklahoma City, like Charlotte they are marginal on the road as they are just a .500 team away from home. Even with Oklahoma City dominating this series as of late, they are taking back just incremental points. Now we see, the Thunder now entering in a scenario where they seem like the value play with points as well, setting them up for a let-down as well as we saw with Charlotte at Chicago. Perfect time to sell on the Thunder and head the other way with the Hornets at home in the Queen City.
Despite, winning outright as a ten-point road pooch, once again we have Philadelphia where we want them. The Sixers could be spotting points here and undoubtedly the win at Denver has reduced their take back when you consider Minnesota limps in off a home loss. We have a chance to now take the Sixers with points as a result of what many may construe as an opportunity for Minnesota to bounce back and dust off the loss, we have dissenting opinions. The win for Philadelphia on the road at Denver could their signature win this season and may spark a rally for the Sixers who may be playing for pride more than anything else at this point. We have targeted teams all week that have been subjected to overreactions and undoubtedly the philosophy here is that a Minnesota team that routs Milwaukee and beats Atlanta handily would be able to take care of Philly. However, we are playing percentages here and given the fact Philly has won over 50% of their games at home while Minnesota has lost over 50% of their games this year on the road, we have to like our spot here with the points.
What we have here is again a continuation of a motif of the “buy-back” situation. To reinforce this, we laid Chicago at home hosting Milwaukee on New Year’s Eve as a home favorite and the Bucks rolled the Bulls. Now, the stock in the Bulls has been depleted and essentially we can take them back at a better number as a result of the New Year’s festivities outcome and the corresponding public overreaction. As we have highlighted previously, Charlotte has the upper hand against this outfit as of recent, encouraging compulsion towards Queen City in this scenario. As a result of the consensus taking those points in abundance in the early going, we now get Chicago at a reduced price. In cases of reactions such as this, a contrarian angle is often quite profitable. Charlotte’s home loss against Cleveland (the defending champion and best team in the East) according to public perception is easier to dismiss compared to Chicago being routed by a .500 team such as Milwaukee. This is certainly understandable but nevertheless we must frequent the fact that Milwaukee has had the recipe for success against this Chicago unit all season long and yet no one wanted a part of them. Now we see, Charlotte entering in a situation where they seem like the quality play with points as well, setting them up perfectly for a let-down.