NBA Basketball Picks - Daily ATS Predictions
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The Wizards have had their woes on the road this year but let’s not forget that prior to Atlanta winning Game Three and Game Four at home, the Wizards had won five in a row against the Birds regardless of where the contest transpired. Contrary to what may have occurred in this series, the Hawks do not own an overwhelming home court advantage compared to other NBA franchises. Atlanta was 23-18 SU at home previous to Game Three and Game Four and they have more or less played mediocre basketball since the All-Star Break. Atlanta at one point was ranked as high as third in the East and their play allowed Washington to usurp them for the Southeast Division credentials. Given the reaction of the public to Atlanta covering in Game Five, we would expect to see what is taking shape here to manifest. Ultimately this situation sets up Atlanta for a let-down by virtue of an over-reaction to takers getting beat on that 5.5-number all series long. Perfect time to buy the better team with enhanced points.
The Raptors have turned it around big time after the embarrassing 27 point loss in Milwaukee in Game 3 with back to back to wins and covers. Toronto’s starters are all scoring well right now with DeMarre Carroll’s 12 points the lowest scoring total of all five starters in Game 5. The Raps smell blood and should be able to close out the series tonight on the road where they have already grabbed a pair of wins in Milwaukee this season.
Situationally, this scenario sets up perfectly for Memphis. The Spurs have had an abysmal time in the FedEx Forum this season and they have had to rely on prolific performances from beyond the three-point line to yield some of the performances we have seen in this series that have raised eyebrows. The public has generally turned a reluctant eye yet again toward the Grizzlies despite the fact they were able to equalize this series once it went back to Music City. Without question, the Grizzlies can force a Game Seven here and the market evaluation reflects this. Despite San Antonio winning by 13 in Game Five, we see San Antonio enter here at a near identical price to what we saw in Game Three and Game Four. The price here seems to be hook-line-sinker for Spurs takers and once again we will fade what is likely yet another overreaction.
This is just the fourth time in NBA playoff history that the road team won each of the first four games in a best-of-seven series. I believe that is about to change as Boston begins to finally assert itself as the better team in this matchup.
I still like the UNDER on the total line despite the deflated betting odds (202 points) in what has been a tough defensive battle so far, but my “best bet” pick for Wednesday night is Boston covering the eight points at home in a statement game.
The last two games have soared over the total line after two UNDERS at the STAPLES Center. Jazz SF Gordon Hayward is expected to be back to full strength after a bout with food poisoning in Game 4 and while the Clippers’ PG Chris Paul has been playing brilliantly he can’t keep carrying the team on his back every night. I believe the solid defensive play at home by LAC continues tonight. The sharp money is on the UNDER and that’s exactly where my money has landed.
Seemingly Game Three and Game Four has been cast out with the notion that this game is going back to San Antonio where the Spurs are expected to win games big against a Memphis team known for a very shady track record in the AT&T Center. This may very well be the case but we cannot overlook the fact that Memphis has found a way back into the series and made this a three-game series essentially after they drew even with some sensational efforts in Music City. While San Antonio can easily win here, takers are likely spotting inflated lumber here to the Grizzlies based on previous results in this venue. The fact remains, this affair will likely be lower-scoring than Game Four given the fact overtime was required in what was a defensive-battle. The defenses of both squads will likely dictate this affair and thus the Under here offers tremendous value as well as the points.
The total feels like the right place to be on this game. On only one occasion have both teams scored over the 96 points required to get to and surpass today’s line. That came in Game 2 when both teams went off from behind the arc with the Raptors hitting 14 of 29 and the Bucks connecting on 11 of 23. That didn’t happen in the other three matches and is unlikely to happen again tonight. Three of the first four fell short of the total and make that five after the buzzer sounds in Game 5.
Overall the public maneuvers in this affair has been that of a zig-zag with the lines themselves being relatively sharp given the fact the NBA’s best team is on the court. What we saw in Game One was everyone aboard Golden State at what was an inflated number to react in Game Two with a driven down price on Golden State that afforded Warriors takers a chance to step in then and there. In Game Three, a similar situation followed suit with a perceived home court advantage being given to Rip City and now the Blazers have failed to cover as the popular option in their last two games with a sweep seeming to be on the horizon. Now is the perfect time to take Portland when there is little faith vested in them as they try to avert a sweep on their own floor at all costs.
It is very easy to get swept up in a zig-zag with the Celtics pulling off an impressive win and likely fostering an immense overreaction as a result. The fact that Jerian Grant gets the nod at the point with Rondo nursing a fractured thumb has likely digressed faith that Chicago can win this game, let alone the series after such an injury. However, the Bulls have incredible depth at the guard position overall. Behind Grant, the Bulls have the likes of Michael Carter-Williams, Isaiah Canaan and Anthony Morrow available. All of these individuals have experience as starters in this league and can assuredly steward the workload if their shoulder is tapped on. Given the fact the Bulls had off-nights from two key players who head up their scoring department, Chicago can easily rebound in Game Four if it find its stroke. Immense value in a four-point swing in just one game. Fade the Celtics.
The Hawks will probably play better in front of a favorable crowd with a return to the Philips Arena. However, keep in mind that they only split the two games at home against the Wizards this season with the win coming back on October 27th the only win Atlanta managed in the five matches overall this season. The Hawks are an unimpressive 23-18 as a host this season.If they are going to get win I think this is likeliest spot, but I just don’t feel comfortable laying points this afternoon.
In spite of Memphis’ triumphant resurgence, it seems the public is not buying in and has written this result off as a one-off more than anything of substance or consequence. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies have now won three games in a row at the FedEx Forum against this very San Antonio team and has managed to keep them under 100 points in each of these affairs. Given the influence home court advantage can play in this series overall, this series has the makings to go the distance and require seven games to declare a winner. The market itself will not come off the number offered here and we are getting the Grizzlies at the same price we got them in Game Three if we take them on the Money Line again. Given how Memphis has played on its own court this year situationally against the Spurs there is no reason to change our strategy especially if the public is heavily leaning the other way here which often signifies some form of an overreaction. In this case it works to our advantage.
Overall this market presents a lot of riveting and tempting options. Ultimately, the best option may actually be found in what is the most popular choice against the spread as Chicago will undoubtedly use this home game to edge ever closer to an unprecedented sweep. The Bulls spotting a point and a half affords a chance to take back the better team at home and spot just a basket to the invader who has lost both games by at least four points. Boston has been prone to some shocking upsets this year on the road and given the playoff atmosphere that the United Center has to offer, it will be very difficult to overcome. The Celtics look lost and despite scoring 108.5 points per game in the regular season, they have yet to break 102 in either of these two fixtures. Swallow the points.
The Cavs got the victories in the first two games, but they were underwhelming. They now take to the road where they’re just 1-4 in their last five contests. I’ll side with the host who has now covered three straight in this series and have a exceptionally strong home record going 29-12 on the season.
Very simply this series looks like it’s going to get out of hand very quickly given the play of San Antonio in Games One and Two. However, Memphis is a different basketball team at home when compared to when they are on the road. Despite San Antonio winning by 29 points in Game One, Memphis is cast as a mild underdog in this contest because they have held this Spurs team to just 74 points in the FedEx Forum on Feburary 6th. If Memphis wants to have any chance of getting back into this series, they will need a win here and now, as a 3-0 deficit against San Antonio will be very hard to overcome. Look for an animated and charged Grizzlies fan-base to give Memphis the home court advantage it needs to notch a much-needed win.
In the opener I thought that Isaiah would will himself to a top performance and he did just that, but the Celtics still faltered. I think it will be more difficult for him in Game 2 and that reason alone I feel that the seven points is too much to lay. The Bulls have won eight of their last ten and there is no reason to believe that they won’t come out with another strong performance tonight.
The Hawks won their regular season opener against Washington 114-99 as four-point home favorites before losing the last four meetings SU (1-3 ATS). It is going be tough to snap this skid on road against a Washington team that appears to be in prime postseason form.
I am going to lay the five points and take the Wizards to pull off the two-game sweep at home both SU and ATS before the series shifts to Atlanta for the next two games.
Overreactions is the name of the game when it comes to NBA playoff series as one result can persuade high volumes of action from the public as a result of the preceding affair. Given the manner in which Milwaukee won Game One, many are going to be enamored by taking back the Bucks with the same amount of points. However, as we have stated previously the Raptors had a terribly cold night from one of their best scorers. While this does not undermine Milwaukee’s efforts, Kyle Lowry is the spark of the Toronto Raptors as he can take over games when he is shooting well from beyond the arc. He didn’t splash even once. An uptick in Lowry’s performance in Game Two will provide a host of troubles that Milwaukee didn’t have to deal with in in Game One. Most likely, Toronto took Milwaukee lightly given the fact they had this one at home in the Great White North. Look for the Raptors to rebound here and equalize the series as it goes back to Milwaukee.
Despite an outstanding display of supremacy in Game One, the market has not reacted much to San Antonio’s performance against Memphis. Winning and winning big at home in particular is expected of the Spurs in these scenarios given their playoff pedigree and the expertise of Coach Greg Popovich. Memphis overall has been a lackluster choice in the playoffs. Given all these narratives, many can expect to pay a lofty price to take action on the Spurs, overall. With this being said, Memphis will look to go back to the drawing board and clamp down on their defensive operations. It is highly unlikely that San Antonio will be able to shoot with such proficiency for a second straight game by virtue of the fact such numbers are hard to replicate. Nevertheless, Memphis should be able to generate a bit more offense in this one and keep it far closer than the Game One difference which also makes the Over a great selection here as well.
The Celtics have been eating their backers money over their last ten matches. They did win seven of those games, but covered in just three. The good news is there’s a real strong trend in play in this series with the hoe not only winning the last seven but also getting the money. Boston may be without star point guard Isaiah Thomas (game time decision personal), so keep an eye out for that before laying big on this game.