Borussia Dortmund at TSG Hoffenheim Free Pick - Odds and Match Predictions

Borussia Dortmund at TSG Hoffenheim Free Pick - Odds and Match Predictions

Pavlos Laguretos
Date: May 12, 9:30 am
Location: Rhein-Neckar-Arena
TV: Local Coverage

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Hoffenheim +120/Dortmund +200/Draw +280
Total: 2.5

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As most European domestic leagues come to an end, so does the German Bundesliga, and there are still some things to be settled. Some teams are fighting to avoid the relegation, while others are looking to either steal a European ticket, keep their own, or upgrade it. Hoffenheim will now play host to Dortmund on Saturday, with the two teams currently sitting in the spots that grant entrance to the Champions League. However, Bayer Leverkusen is lurking just a few points behind both, so this is a must-win for both teams.
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Hoffenheim (14-9-10) suffered a terrible loss last week on the road, where they fell by 0-2 against Stuttgart. They were dominant in that match, but they found themselves chasing the score at the 25th minute. Even though Stuttgart was left with ten men at the 65th minute, they went on to score another goal at the 74th minute for the final 0-2. That was the first loss for Hoffenheim since mid-February (6-0-3 in that span), but it could potentially ruin their chances for a Champions League ticket. They are now sitting at the 4th spot of the Bundesliga with 52 points, currently at the place that grants entrance to the Champions League. However, Bayer Leverkusen has just as many points, so Hoffenheim will need a win here in order to be mathematically safe. They have been excellent at home so far in the season (10-2-4), where they have won each of their last four, scoring 14 goals in the process while conceding just one. They will be missing Gnabry and Geiger, while Demirbay, Hubner, Posch, and Rupp are still being listed as doubtful to participate.
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On the other hand, Dortmund (15-8-10) are also coming off a bad loss last week, as they fell by 2-1 at home against Mainz. Dortmund conceded two early goals by the 13th minute of that match, and even though they scored at the 16th minute, they were unable to take anything more from that match. Dortmund has now won just one of their last four (1-2-1), and this is where things get complicated. They are still sitting at the 3rd spot with 55 points, three points ahead of Hoffenheim and Bayer Leverkusen. A loss here could prove to be catastrophic, as they can potentially drop to the 5th spot and have their Champions League ticket downgraded to a Europa League ticket. They have been quite feisty on the road so far in the season (6-4-6) but have failed to win any of their last six (0-2-4). They will be missing a ton of players in this match, as Batshuayi and Rode are injured, Papastathopoulos is suspended, while Durm, Guerreiro, Kagawa, Toprak, and Zagadou are still questionable.
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Borussia Dortmund at TSG Hoffenheim Prediction 05/12/2018

Dortmund has clearly had the upper hand in this match-up in recent years, having not lost to Hoffenheim since 2013 (5-0-5). However, there have been goals from both sides in nine of those matches. Moreover, Hoffenheim have been great as hosts against Dortmund over the years (3-2-4), but each of the last four games here has been draws. This is undoubtedly going to be one of the matches to watch on Saturday, with both teams vying for a win here. Anything can happen in this match, and if anything, it is Hoffenheim who should have the upper hand here. In any case, I feel that the two teams will approach this match with caution, so I will take the Under 3.75 Goals here.

Free Pick: Take Under 3.75 Goals (-130)
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