Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers Pick

Cliff Knox
Date: September 12, 8:20 pm
Location: Bank of America Stadium
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Panthers -6.5
Total: 50

<p>
<b>Outlook for Thursday Night Kickoff</b>
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<p>
In the first NFC South game for each team the Carolina Panthers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Thursday night action. Both teams lost their season openers, and while the Panthers played the defending NFC champion Rams close, the Bucs trailed for most of the game to the San Francisco 49ers.
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<h2>
Tampa Bay Overview<br />
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<p>
In Tampa Bay's season opener, which was at home, they lost to the San Francisco 49ers 31-17 where they were outscored 25-10 in the 2nd half. Jameis Winston had three interceptions in the game and while they held the 49ers to only 256 total yards the four turnovers hurt them. Tampa Bay split their two games facing the Panthers last season winning at home while losing on the road where they gave up 42 points. The Buccaneers have lost three of their previous four games against the Panthers, and in their last six visits to Carolina, they only have one win, which was in 2016. In the victory, last season at home against Carolina Winston was on the sidelines with an injury.
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<h2>
Carolina Overview<br />
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The Panthers put up a fight in their opening game losing at home to the LA Rams 30-27 where they could not come back from being down 13-0. They had three turnovers in the game and only forced one. Both the Bucs and Panthers had their chances in their Week 1 losses, but turnovers hurt both of them, big time, and that is no surprise. The Panthers may need this win more, as more is expected of them this season after a disappointing last season. Carolina needs to take advantage of their schedule, as starting with this game in their next five games they do not face a team that went to the playoffs last season.
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<h2>
How the Public is Betting the Packers/Bears Game<br />
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The public has backed the Panthers early in this NFC South contest, as they opened as a five-point favorite are a 6.5-point favorite as of Tuesday morning. The total opened at 50.5 and has slightly gone down to 50.
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<h3>
Injury Concerns<br />
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<b>Bucs </b>
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For the Bucs WR Cortrelle Simpson and backup QB Blaine Gabbert are both listed as questionable, and SS Justin Evans was recently put on IR with an Achilles injury and is out for this game.
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<b>Panthers </b>
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For Carolina DE Bruce Irvin, TE Greg Olson, DB Rashaan Gaulden, and T Greg Little all missed practice on Monday, and all are listed as questionable for this game.
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<h3>
When the Buccaneers Have the Ball<br />
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<p>
It is pretty easy for the Bucs, as when they have the ball they have to hold onto the rock. Winston was picked off three times by a 49ers' secondary that only had two picks all of last season. They had a balanced attack in the San Francisco game where they were had 174 passing yards and 121 rushing yards. Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber combined for 108 rushing yards in the loss to San Francisco, and they will be facing a Carolina run defense that gave up 166 rushing yards in the loss to the Rams. Winston has the targets but has to prove he can find them and not turn the ball over.
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<h3>
When the Panthers Have the Ball<br />
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The Panthers also have to hold onto the ball when they have possession and look to get Christian McCaffery involved in the offense as much as possible. Even in the loss to the Rams, he had a big game leading the team with 128 rushing yards averaging 6.7 yards per carry and also leading them with 81 receiving yards. Cam Newton passed for 239 yards with no TD and was not only picked off once but also lost a fumble. The Panthers are led by their run game on offense with short passes to McCaffery as well. They will look to pound the ball on the ground, and that should help them in the time of possession battle, which they lost to the Rams last week 33:16 to 26:44.
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<h2>
Betting Trends<br />
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<p>
Both teams failed to cover the spread in their season opener with the Bucs a 1-point favorite over the 49ers and the Panthers a 1.5-point underdog against the Rams. Last season in the two games between these teams each covered at home, but in the previous ten games between these rivals, the road team has covered the spread seven times. Also, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. There have not many high scoring games between the two in the previous few seasons, as the total has gone Under in five of the last six games.
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<h3>
Weather Report<br />
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There is a heatwave in the Charlotte area slated for Thursday with a high of 97 degrees but will be cooler with a PM kickoff. The forecast calls for sunny with partly cloudy skies and a 25% chance of rain.
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Buccaneers at Panthers - Cliff's Pick 9-12-19

Last season the home team took both matches straight up and against the number with the smallest margin of victory being 7. I could make an argument for taking the Panthers here especially after watching Jameis Winston try to play QB. I like the total better. The Bucs defense played well holding the 49ers offense to approx. 250 yards and 17 points. The Panthers gave up a lot of yardage on the ground, but I expect them to have more success against the Bucs running game. The O/U line is a generous 50 points, and I'm calling for a 24-14 type game giving us lots of room on the UNDER.

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 50
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