Tampa Bay at Buffalo TNF Spread Bet & Analysis

Darin Zank
Date: October 26, 8:15 pm
Location: Highmark Stadium
TV: Prime Video

Betting Odds

Point Spread: TB +9.5/Buff -9.5
Total: 42.5

Two teams struggling as of late meet when the Bills and Buccaneers provide the entertainment for this week’s edition of Thursday night NFL betting action.

Buffalo started 3-1 this season; it’s 1-2 since. Tampa Bay started 2-0; it’s 1-3 since. So both these teams could really use a W this week.

NFL Betting Odds

The Week 8 NFL betting market opened Buffalo at -8 for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 42.5. Early betting action edged the Bills to -8.5.

Buccaneers-Bills Betting Preview

Tampa Bay started 3-1 this season but now owns back-to-back defeats, after falling at home to Atlanta last Sunday 16-13. The Buccaneers, as three-point favorites, fell down 7-0 midway through the first quarter and never led. They tied the score at 7-7, 10-10, and 13-13 late but allowed the Falcons a big play from scrimmage to set up a game-deciding field goal at the buzzer.

Tampa got out-gained by Atlanta 401-329 and out-rushed 156-73. In fact, the Bucs were lucky to keep that game so close, considering the Falcons turned the ball over three times inside the Tampa Bay red zone, twice from the 1-yard line.

Two weeks ago the Buccaneers lost to Detroit 20-6. So that’s one offensive touchdown for Tampa over its last eight quarters of play.

On the injury front QB Baker Mayfield and WR Chris Godwin are both listed as questionable for Thursday night. If Mayfield can’t go it would be 3rd-year man Kyle Trask behind center for the Bucs.

Meanwhile, Buffalo is coming off its third straight poor performance, a 29-25 loss at New England last Sunday. The Bills, favored by eight points, fell down 10-0 out of the gate and trailed 13-3 at the half. Buffalo rallied to lead 25-22 with just under two minutes to go but allowed the Patriots to drive 75 yards to a touchdown with 12 seconds left.

The Bills got out-gained by New England, which ranks 25th in the League in total offense, 364-339.

Four games ago Buffalo looked like the AFC title contender we thought they were, beating Miami 48-20. But the Bills then lost to Jacksonville 25-20, then had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to beat the Giants 14-9.

These teams last met two seasons ago, a 33-27 Tampa Bay victory in overtime. Longtime Buffalo nemesis Tom Brady quarterbacked the Bucs that day against Josh Allen for the Bills.

Totals Report

The Unders are 5-1 in Buccaneers games this season, which are averaging just 35 total points.

The Unders are 4-3 in Bills games this season, which are averaging 45 points.

After going 9-4 last week the Unders are 65-41 in the NFL this season.

Bucs vs. Bills Predictions

Despite its recent struggles Buffalo is the better team in this match-up and should win this game outright. The Bills own the better running game and the better defense. Also, Tampa Bay is already having trouble scoring and now its QB and top WR might be out. We’re betting Buffalo Thursday night, minus the points.

Free Pick: Take Buffalo -9.5
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