NFL analyst Dave Schwab gives an overview of what the AFC South teams added and lost in the off-season along with his opinion on who the teams to beat will be. A recap of last season and some wagering advice will also be included.
The battle for the 2016 AFC South Division title could go right down to wire, but in the end somebody has to win. My job is to find that team based on the recently updated futures odds at BetOnline to win this wide open division race.
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After falling to 2-14 in 2011, the Colts made the playoffs three-straight seasons with Andrew Luck as their new franchise quarterback. They also advanced further each of those seasons including a trip to the AFC title game in 2014. Luck was plagued by injuries last season that limited him to just seven starts and Indianapolis failed to make it into the postseason at 8-8 on the year. Luck is healthy and ready to go and beleaguered head coach Chuck Pagano has been given a vote of confidence by team owner Jim Irsay.
That does not mean that Indy is automatically back on the fast track to regaining the top spot in the AFC South just because it is favored to win. The Colts’ had one of the worst running offenses in the league last year and they did not really address the situation at running back through either free agency or the draft. They did add some beef upfront with center Ryan Kelly and offensive tackle Le’Raven Clark in the early rounds of the draft, which could help the situation. There also has to be some concern with a few big holes on defense that have yet to be filled.
Houston took full advantage of Luck’s absence in its run to the division title last year and anytime you have a player like JJ Watt terrorizing opposing quarterbacks you have a much better chance to win. The big question with the Texans this season revolves around the addition of free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. He gained national attention in relief of Peyton Manning last season in Denver, but the jury is still out on his viability as an every day starter in the NFL. He will have some help in the backfield with the addition of free agent running back Lamar Miller from Miami.
The Texans are going to go as far as Watt and their defense takes them. A healthy Jadeveon Clowney could also be a major plus and the addition of depth in the later rounds of the draft should also help the cause. While all eyes will be on Osweiler on the other side of the ball, first round draft pick Will Fuller at wide receiver could also be under the gun to help improve a pass offense that was ranked 18th in the NFL last year in yards per game.
Jacksonville has not won more than eight games since 2007, but it has slowly been putting the right pieces in place through high draft picks the past few years. This started with quarterback Blake Bortles in 2014 and with receivers such as Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns coming into their own last year, the Jaguars moved up to 10th in the league in passing yards per game. They will need more production from second-year running back TJ Yeldon after he led the team last year with 740 rushing yards, but all-in-all this offense has the potential to be one of the most explosive units in the NFL this year.
Head coach Gus Bradley used his first five draft picks this offseason on the defensive of the ball in hopes of adding some depth to one of the worst units in the league in both points and yards allowed. Jacksonville also added defensive end Malik Jackson and cornerback Prince Amukamara as free agents. If everything comes together quickly with all of these new faces, the Jaguars could easily find themselves on the plus side of their -140 money line to win more than 7.5 games.
The Titans won just three games in 2015 in what turned out to be some serious growing pains for rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota as the No. 1 overall pick in that year’s draft. They added some bulk up front in the first round of this year’s draft by selecting tackle Jack Conklin and running back Derrick Henry could be the steal of the draft in the second round on the heels of his Heisman Trophy winning performance last year with Alabama. Tennessee also added veteran running back DeMarco Murray to help boost a ground game that averaged just 92.8 yards a game last year.
Ken Whisenhunt was sent packing as head coach after just two seasons at the helm and it could be safe to say that new head coach Mike Mularkey could quickly find himself on the hot seat with a franchise that is obviously running out of patience. He has taken some bold steps to improve its overall level of talent on both sides of the ball adding some solid value in the Titans’ longer odds to win a wide open AFC South title race. A safer bet for this team could be the Titans’ -160 money line on the OVER 5.5 wins.
Luck is a proven winner and if he does stay healthy for all 16 games it would be hard to bet against Indianapolis. That being said, my “best bet” pick to win this division is the Jaguars at very favorable +275 odds. I really like how Bradley has been building this team from the ground up and Jacksonville is now in excellent position to make all these moves finally pay off.