2016 NFL Props - Coach of the Year
Being a head coach in the NFL is often a two-way street. If your team is winning, then your odds to win NFL Coach of the Year improve. If your team is losing, then you find your name high on the list of future odds as the first coaches to be fired. For the purpose of this discussion, we will take a deeper look at the current prop bet odds from Sportsbook to win the 2016 NFL Coach of the Year.
To win NFL Coach of the Year honors you usually have to take a very bad team and make it much better or take a good team and make it win the majority of its games. The prop bet odds at Sportsbook for NFL Coach of the Year in 2016 heavily suggest that we are going to see the latter with a head coach from quite a few Super Bowl contenders at the top of the list.
Arians has already won this award twice in his career so it is easy to see why he is one of the top favorites. The first award came in 2012 when he took over the reins for Chuck Pagano in Indianapolis and led the team to an 11-5 record while Pagano battled cancer. As head coach in Arizona, he led the Cardinals to an 11-5 record in his second season with the team. It is going to take a strong effort to snag this year’s honors coming off a 13-3 campaign in 2015 so I am not all that thrilled with the value in these odds.
Zimmer was a strong candidate for ‘NFL Coach of the Year’ last season when Minnesota won the NFC North with a record of 11-5. This was on the heels of a 7-9 record in his first season at the helm. If the Vikings can match that record or possibly win one or two more games, he would probably be a lock to win this year, but that is still a pretty big ‘IF’ in my book. No matter which coach has been on the sidelines, the Vikings have a tendency of taking a step backwards following a successful season. Another concern is that even though Zimmer is building a strong foundation in Minnesota on both sides of the ball, his team still plays in the same division as Green Bay which always presents a challenge.
You can pencil-in Belichick’s name as a top candidate every season considering his long history of success in New England. During his extended 16-year tenure with the Patriots he has won this award three times with the last trophy coming in 2010 when his team went 14-2. It will probably take that kind of record this year to lay claim to a fourth title given the already high expectations for his team. One thing that could actually work in his favor would be Tom Brady’s pending four-game suspension. If New England can go on and win the top seed in the AFC this season without its future Hall of Fame quarterback at the helm for the first quarter of the season, Belichick would almost have to be named ‘Coach of the Year’.
Much like Arians in Arizona, Rivera has already won this award twice for everything he has accomplished in his five-year tenure in Carolina. He won top coaching honors in 2013 when the Panthers went from 7-9 the previous season to 12-4. Last season he was named the best coach in the NFL when his Panthers won 15 of 16 regular season games during their run to Super Bowl 50. Much like Arians, I am not all that thrilled with the value in Rivera’s odds to win again considering just how high the bar has been set for Carolina this year.
I really like McCarthy at these longer odds. His team was rolling towards the NFC North title last season when a late-season slide dropped the Packers to 10-6 and second in the division behind Minnesota. This could set the stage for a big comeback in 2016 with Green Bay once again listed as the top favorite to win the NFC North. This will be McCarthy’s 11th season as head coach in Green Bay and he has yet to win this honor despite leading his team to seven seasons of double-digit victories. Even in 2011 when his team went 15-1, he was passed over for Jim Harbaugh when he was head coach in San Francisco. It is safe to say that McCarthy is due.