Chiefs vs Packers Pick: NFL Sunday Night Prediction

Chiefs vs Packers Pick: NFL Sunday Night Prediction

Darin Zank
Date: December 4, 8:20 pm
Location: Lambeau Field
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Point Spread: KC -6
Moneyline: KC -260/GB +215
Total: 42.5

The Chiefs looked like their usual selves last week, at least for the last three quarters, and the Packers are looking better as of late, heading into this week’s edition of NFL Sunday night betting action from Lambeau Field.

Kansas City remains in the hunt for the top spot in the AFC, while Green Bay is suddenly back in the NFC wild-card race.

The first match-up between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love a couple of seasons ago played low-scoring. How might Sunday night’s game play out?

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NFL Betting Odds

The Week 13 NFL betting market opened Kansas City at -6.5 for Sunday night, with an over/under of right around 42.5. Early betting action then shaved that line to -6.

Chiefs Betting Preview

Kansas City just bounced back from that tough loss to Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago to win at Las Vegas last Sunday 31-17. The Chiefs spotted the Raiders the first 14 points of the game but scored the next 21 and tacked on a couple of scores late to secure the cover at -8.5.

After starting slowly, KC out-gained Las Vegas 360-358, as the offense awoke and the defense clamped down.

The Chiefs have now out-gained nine of their last ten opponents. However, they’ve also been out-rushed by six of their last seven foes. Kansas City is also only 2-2 SU and ATS its last four times out.

But at 8-3 overall the Chiefs only trail 9-3 Baltimore by a half-game in the battle for the best record in the AFC.

Packers Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Green Bay is 3-1 SU and ATS its last four times out after winning at Detroit back on Thanksgiving Day 29-22. The Packers, as eight-point dogs, scored the first seven points of the game, led 23-6 at the half, and held on from there.

Green Bay also cashed in at +320 on the money line.

The Packers got out-gained by the Lions 464-377, but a lot of that was situational, as the defense played with a big early lead. Green Bay also won the turnover battle 3-0 and scored once on defense.

Two weeks ago, the Packers also committed zero turnovers and beat the Chargers 23-20.

At 5-6 overall, Green Bay now trails 6-6 Seattle by just a half-game in the battle for the No. 7 spot in the NFC playoff standings.

On the injury front, Green Bay’s a little banged up at the skills positions and lists three defensive starters as questionable for Sunday. Meanwhile, KC’s probably one of the healthier teams in the League at the moment.

These two teams last met two seasons ago, a 13-7 KC home victory. By chance, that was the first career start for Green Bay QB Love, who filled in while Aaron Rodgers sat out one of those COVID suspensions.

The Packers actually out-gained the Chiefs that day 301-237.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played six common opponents this season: the Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, Vikings, Bears, and Lions. Kansas City played those foes to 5-2 SU and ATS and +78 yards per game, Green Bay to 3-4 SU and ATS and -45 YPG.

NFL Betting Trends

After going 0-7 ATS last week, home dogs are 29-36 ATS this season.

Totals Report

The Unders are 8-3 in Chiefs games this season which are averaging just 40 total points.

The Unders are 6-5 in Packers games, which are averaging 41 points.

The Overs played 9-7 in the NFL last week, but on the season, the Unders are 105-76.

Green Bay at Kansas City Free Pick ATS

Kansas City gets the check-mark at QB, although we like Love and on defense. Also, the Chiefs own a much better performance against common opponents. Also, KC is the healthier squad. How’s Green Bay going to run the ball? And playing on the road, keep the line on this game below seven. We like Kansas City for Sunday night, minus the points.

Free Pick: Take the Chiefs -6
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