Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds - Free Orange Bowl Pick

Date: 
December 30, 8:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Michigan -7
Total: 
52.5

The Big Ten’s Michigan Wolverines will look to end their season on a winning note in the 2016 Capital One Orange Bowl this Friday night against the ACC’s Florida State Seminoles. Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami is set for 8 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Michigan vs. Florida St. Game Overview

Michigan made a strong push for a spot in this season’s College Football Playoff with a straight-up record of 10-2, but road losses to Iowa and Ohio State in two of its last three games ended that run. The Wolverines went an even 6-6 against the spread after failing to cover in four of their last six contests and the total went OVER in three of their last five games. The total has gone OVER in eight of 12 games overall.

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Junior quarterback Wilton Speight has been upgraded to probable for this game after sustaining a shoulder injury earlier in the season. He completed 62.5 percent of his 293 passing attempts for 2,375 yards and 17 touchdown throws. De’Veon Smith led the Wolverines’ ground game with 810 rushing yards and 10 scores on 165 carries, while Amara Darbosh was the team’s leading receiver with 52 catches for 826 yards and seven TD’s. Michigan averaged 41 points a game on offense and its defense was ranked second in the nation in points allowed (12.5).

The Seminoles ended their season on a SU four-game winning streak with a 3-1 record ATS. Earlier losses to Louisville on the road as well as North Carolina and Clemson at home ended any dreams of an ACC title and spot in the College Football Playoff, but the Seminoles were still a very productive 9-3 SU with a 7-5 record ATS. The total stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games and they covered in each of the two games this season closing as underdogs.

The star power on this team revolves around freshman quarterback Deondre Francois and junior running back Dalvin Cook. Francois put the ball up 373 times and he completed 226 passes for 3,128 yards and 18 touchdowns. Cook was eighth in the nation in rushing with 1,620 yards and 18 touchdown runs on 268 carries. The Seminoles were 31st in the nation in scoring with 35.3 points per game and on the other side of the ball their defense gave up an average of 24.4 points per game.

Michigan vs. Florida St. Game Betting Trends

  • The Wolverines are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games outside the conference. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine bowl games.
  • The Seminoles are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 bowl games, but they have failed to cover in five of their last six games played at a neutral site. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games in a postseason bowl.
  • The last time these two met was in 1991 with Florida State coming away with a 51-31 victory as a 2.5-point road underdog.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles Prediction

Normally I would be leery of betting on a favorite that is heading into its bowl game with a deep sense of disappointment over how its season ended, but Michigan is clearly the better overall team in this matchup and I still believe that it will play like it has something to prove.

This matchup should remain a highly entertaining affair for all four quarters, but in the end my “best bet” pick is the Wolverines both SU and ATS on the current seven-point betting line.

Free Pick: 
Take Michigan -7

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