Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Navy Midshipmen NCAAF Pick - Odds - Free ATS Pick

Date: 
December 23, 4:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Louisiana Tech -3.5
Total: 
66

Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth is the site of this season’s Armed Forces Bowl between the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and the Navy Midshipmen scheduled for Monday, Dec. 23. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Louisiana Tech vs. Navy Game Overview

The Bulldogs come into this season’s Armed Forces Bowl on a down note after losing the Conference USA Championship Game to Western Kentucky 58-44 as 13-point road underdogs. The total went way OVER the already high 78-point closing line in that game and it has gone OVER in seven of their last eight games. Louisiana Tech is 8-5 straight-up this season with a 7-5-1 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in 10 of the 13 games.

High scoring offense is putting things mildly when it comes to describing the Bulldogs ability to put points on the board. Behind a passing attack that averaged 359.8 yards a game, they come into this matchup as the sixth-highest scoring team in Division IA (FBS) with 44 points a game. Most times they needed to score that much with a defense that has allowed an average of 32.7 points to its opponents.

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Navy was in perfect position to land a spot in a major bowl game this season until a late-season collapse in its last two games. First, the Midshipmen fell to Temple 34-10 in the AAC title game as one-point favorites and then they came out on the wrong end of a stunning 21-17 loss to rival Army as six-point favorites. Those two losses dropped Navy to 9-4 SU and 7-5-1 ATS. The total stayed UNDER in both of those games after going OVER in eight of its first 11 games.

The much bigger concern for this game is the loss of versatile quarterback Will Worth with a season-ending ankle injury. He was responsible for most of the team’s offensive production with 1,397 yards passing and eight touchdown throws to go along with another 1,198 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground. Zach Abey got the start at quarterback against Army and he completed 6-of-10 passes for 89 yards. He also led the team in rushing with 73 yards on 19 carries.

Louisiana Tech vs. Navy Game Betting Trends

  • The Bulldogs have covered ATS in their last four bowl games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six neutral-site games.
  • The Midshipmen are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 postseason bowl games, but they have failed to cover ATS in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine games played at a neutral site.
  • Navy won two previous meetings back in 2009 and 2010 both SU and ATS. The total was evenly split 1-1.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Navy Midshipmen Prediction

Louisiana Tech opened as a slight underdog before Navy’s loss of Worth at quarterback coupled with its recent loss to Army. The fact that the spread only swung 3.5 points in the Bulldogs’ favor opens up a golden opportunity to take advantage of the Midshipmen’s recent woes with a big unit play on Louisiana Tech.

I just cannot see Navy staying close on the scoreboard against the potent Bulldogs for all four quarters with its best player out of the lineup.

Free Pick: 
Take Louisiana Tech -3.5

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