Clemson Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds - Free Pick

Date: 
January 9, 8:00 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Betting Odds

Point Spread: 
Alabama -6.5
Total: 
50.5

The Clemson Tigers will be looking to avenge last season’s loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the national title game in a rematch this Monday night at Raymond James Stadium. Game time for this year’s CFP Championship Game is slated for 8 p.m. (ET) and this ACC/SEC tilt will be broadcast nationally on ESPN.

Clemson at Alabama Game Overview

Clemson only has one straight-up loss against 13 wins this year, but it had to survive more than a few close calls to get back to this title game with an even 7-7 record against the spread. The good news for Tigers’ fans is that they did save their best for last with a crushing 31-0 whitewash of Ohio State in the College Football Playoff semifinals as 1.5-point underdogs. The total stayed UNDER the 57-point closing line in that win after going OVER in five of their previous six games.

Tigers’ quarterback Deshaun Watson almost led Clemson to a national title last season as a sophomore in that crushing 45-40 loss to Alabama in Round 1 of this heavyweight bout. He completed 23-of-36 passing attempts for 259 yards and 1 touchdown in their recent win against the Buckeyes while adding 57 yards and two more scores on the ground. Clemson racked up 205 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 48 carries in that game. Even more impressive was a Tigers’ defense that held Ohio State to 215 total yards.

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Alabama’s run through the 2016 season included a perfect 14-0 SU record while going a profitable 10-4 ATS. What is so impressive about this ATS record is the fact that the Tide closed as double-digit favorites in 13 of those 14 games. The total stayed UNDER 51.5 points in their 24-7 victory against Washington as 13-point favorites in the other CFP semifinal matchup. The total has now stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games.

Lane Kiffin was still Alabama’s offensive coordinator in that game against the Huskies which resulted in quarterback Jalen Hurts passing for just 57 yards while going 7-for-14. Kiffin was sent packing to get an early jump as the new head coach at Florida Atlantic, so you can expect to see a bit more balance in the offensive game plan on Monday night. The Tide will still go with a heavy dose of a running game that piled up 269 yards its last time out, but Hurts is going to have to get the passing game more involved to get past the Tigers. Alabama will also rely heavily on a shutdown defense that was ranked first in the nation in points allowed (11.8).

Clemson at Alabama Game Betting Trends

  • The Tigers have covered ATS in their last six bowl games and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven nonconference games. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games in a postseason bowl.
  • The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played at a neutral site and they are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the ACC. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games against a team with a SU winning record.
  • Alabama closed as a 6.5-point favorite in last season’s five-point win over Clemson in the 2015 national title game and the total went OVER the closing 50.5-point betting line.

Prediction

The betting lines for this rematch are exactly the same as last year and unfortunately for Clemson fans, I also think the final result will be the same as well. The Tigers have a great chance to one again cover with the 6.5 points, but I do not believe they can come away with the SU win.

This should be a great matchup between the country’s top two college football teams. While last year’s game turned into a shootout, I actually like the UNDER 50.5 points this time around as my “best bet” pick in a game that will be dominated by defensive play.

Free Pick: 
Take the Under 50.5

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