We are going to continue our assault on Detroit be that every win the Pistons acquire further inflates their stock and renders them vulnerable to an overlay. The low-hanging fruit looks enticing but chances are Detroit is supremely overvalued. We’ll trade the bucket in again and take the Blazers outright. Portland on the Money Line gets the call.

The spot looks all too familiar where Toronto can create a lot of havoc for backers in this position. The Grizzlies are among the worst in the league on the road at 5-18 SU outside of Music City. In their own right, Memphis has one of the most potent home court advantages when they are at home. However, none seem to compare to the Raptors this season. As we have mentioned before, when you back Toronto at home you can expect to pay a premium to do so. It is for this reason that Toronto is 5-1 SU in the previous six meetings at home. Against the spread, the Raps have covered just twice in this sample. This in itself allows Memphis to bode tremendous value. Moreover, the number takers are asked to spot in this contest is not conducive to a cover. Laying double-digit points in NBA games can be very hazardous. We will take no part of such a thing against a hungry basketball team that has come up short in recent losses by incremental margins. We’ll take the lumber.

What we have here is a clear-cut overreaction that has fostered a scenario where we can snag some tremendous value. The news surrounding Blake Griffin and the resultant win streak on Detroit has raised the stock on this team to new levels. What this affords us is the opportunity to take advantage of the better team at the better price. Miami on the Money Line gets the call.

Buying low and selling high are we what practice and preach. Situationally, this scenario speaks into that mantra. Brooklyn comes in off the impressive upset win whilst the Lakers are enduring a nasty skid. The combination of the two cultivates a position from the public. However, in spite of the recent events the market itself was reluctant to give Los Angeles any points out of the gate. As a result of a likely overlay, we can take back the Lakers at a friendly price tag. We’ll trade the bucket and play this one on the Money Line outright.

The low-hanging fruit here makes Toronto look deceptively good given the fact the Wizards are without their best player. However, the point spread factors injuries into the formula. Despite Wall being present, the market is implying that Washington can still pull an upset here. Given the fact, Toronto is known for playing exceptionally well at home they simply have no business spotting points here. This is a prime case of an overreaction and gives us a chance to take advantage of a clear-cut overlay. We’ll take Washington outright.

one of these teams will snap its current losing streak. Dallas has been horrible on the road this season, but the Suns have the second-most SU losses at home this season in the entire NBA. Even if Booker is ready to go for Phoenix, this is going to remain a low-scoring affair for all four quarters setting up a play on the UNDER as the ‘best bet’ pick.

Atlanta was in this position in their last outing when they were once again a home dog against a higher echelon opponent. However, Charlotte has been abysmal on the road this year so there is little equity in spotting points with them in this spot. Nevertheless, given how Charlotte handled Atlanta days ago the Hawks are a very hard sell right now with respect to this. Furthermore, the Hornets’ recent successes in this rivalry makes the low-hanging fruit seem even more enticing.

As we have said before, spotting road points as whole can be a very dicey principle unless there is a clear-cut mismatch. This may be the case here, but it isn’t Atlanta who might be overmatched. Hawks outright get the nod.

This series has been one of streaks so naturally the Knicks overall dominance in this cross-city clash is one that sells their stock. When you couple in the fact that the Knicks get this one at home, the appeal is that much greater. As a rule of thumb, the Knicks inflict a hidden premium on takers that wish to back them at Madison Square Garden. When you toss in quality of opponent and said opponent’s road record, there is an even greater propensity. Grab the points.

You would think that Boston would snap out of this current funk to even its record to 2-2 SU in the final stop of this four-game road trip with a win on Monday night, but that just might not be the case. Denver has built up some decent momentum with those last three victories at home and it would love to head back on the road against San Antonio this Tuesday night with a fourth-straight win under its belt. I happen to agree with this scenario when it comes to my ‘best bet’ pick for Monday night with a Nuggets getting that win both SU and ATS.

Atlanta is a very hard sell right now given how they have played as of late. However, spotting road points as whole can be a very testy principle unless there is a clear-cut mismatch. The fact remains, Minnesota and Atlanta have the same ATS record. Straight up, the two teams are on the opposite ends of the spectrum. What this says to us is that Minnesota obviously has a greater propensity to be overvalued. The asking price here reflects such a scenario and the corresponding public lean indicates that an overlay is likely on the table. Take advantage of the inflated points.

Any time an underdog becomes a favorite we have to take a closer look at the steam move. Chances are there is value to be found on the initial favorite. What we have here is a prototypical buy-low and sell-high scenario. The recent woes of Chicago coupled with Milwaukee’s recent wins is enough to sell the stock of the Bucks in this spot even if they have had a lot of trouble dealing with Chicago as of late. Moreover, the Bucks are a 9-13 SU team outside of Milwaukee and very simply have a tough time playing at a high level when they are not in the Bradley Center. At one point this season, Chicago was on an incredible winning run at home where they looked to be re-establishing home court advantage. This scenario seems ideal for them to get back on track in doing so after dropping their last two in Chi-town. Chicago outright gets the call.

Very simply, a recency bias is the narrative fueling this market. The Heat have been a cash cow against the Hornets in particular as of late and many takers are enamored with Miami after what they pulled off against this very club in Charlotte, a week ago. However, a lot has happened since then. Miami has since undergone a correction in markets as they were bound to be overvalued after successful covers against Houston, Charlotte, and Milwaukee where they went 2-1 SU over that span. Since then, Miami has failed to cover in the last two spots where they were favored. Moreover, this is the biggest number that Miami is asked to spot against Charlotte this season. All the ingredients suggest that the Heat are in line for an overlay. Whilst we will play this one conservative, it would not be a shocker by any means if the Hornets were to pull an upset outright. Take the points.

If there was one thing we would urge takers not to take for granted it is Utah on the road with points. We have seen the Jazz orchestrate some outright upsets at favorable prices as of late. Nothing sets up Utah takers to find an edge than when they are fading a team with a renowned home court advantage like Toronto. As we have said previously, when you back Toronto in the Great White North you can expect to a premium. Despite Utah achieving success away as of recent, the chances are that Toronto is spotted an inflated number. Thus, we will step in and fade a clear-cut case of an overlay.

The return of Harden to lineup has added a spark that had been missing in his absence. His point total has increased in his last three starts and I can see him eclipsing his season-scoring average against a heated division rival under the prime-time lights on ESPN. Winning both SU and ATS on the road as favorites against a very familiar foe is never an easy task, but I like the Rockets’ chances to do just that on Wednesday night.

We saw Utah in a similar spot two weeks ago when they were a small-priced dog on the road at the Miami Heat. The Jazz would successfully cover despite low-hanging fruit being offered on Miami. Despite the abysmal road record, Detroit cannot be trusted. The form of the Pistons is enough to sell the Jazz in itself. Given the small price tag, we will trade in the basket for a more profitable return. The probability of a Jazz upset is quite feasible given the number on the table.

Buying low and selling high is a practice we champion. Nothing typifies this better than fading the Magic in this spot. As a result of just one upset, the public has smothered a team that is not traditionally favored by such margins. Very simply, the Magic are inferior in quality to both Boston and Cleveland but both teams are likely guilty of looking past them. However, Sacramento will treat this contest as an opportunity to take down a team it does not see as much better than themselves. After all, the two outfits are just separated in the win and loss column by one game. The number offered here is a clear-cut overreaction. We will take advantage and grab the inflated points.

What resonates with us in this market is the low number next to Milwaukee’s name given how they have fared against this team as of late. Sure, Milwaukee is riding a cold spell at the moment but the public analysis of this game is that this is where the Deers get their act together. However, we would not be so inclined to hold such a position. Phoenix despite a 9-13 SU road record has no fear in hanging with any team on any court. In fact, they have a penchant for come backs and shocking spectators.

Earlier this season, the Suns trailed by over 20 points at halftime when they were visiting the Nation’s capital to take on the Washington Wizards. The Suns would rally and come from behind to pull off a shocking upset. The market is adept to their upset potential and their moxie, thus the low number. We will go ahead and get on-board here as well.

Dragic’s playing status for Monday night needs to be monitored as we get closer to tip-off at the Toyota Center, but I do like the Heats’ chances to close out this road trip with a big SU win. The Rockets could be in for a bit of a letdown coming off Saturday’s crucial upset to open the door just wide enough for Miami to capitalize. My ‘best bet’ pick for this game is still the UNDER on the 216-point total line, with the Heat controlling the game’s tempo most of the night.

We are going to approach this market with a two-prong attack. First, Charlotte is offered at reduced juice which is something that will always gain our attention since driving it down should be a chief goal of any handicapper. In this particular predicament, the Hornets are being priced as such due to the public scoffing up the points early. We have to like this position given the fact, the Heat are coming in off less rest and a loss in a game they were favored to lose. Meanwhile, the Charlotte offense exploded two nights ago and they have had extended time to prepare for this contest. Charlotte is looking to put Miami’s win-streak in this series to an end and situationally this seems to be the ideal spot. The Hornets have a blueprint to refer to in order to catalyze their offensive operations. With that being said, if the Swarm get going again they can easily help facilitate a cover in the Over/Under market whilst we get an above-even return doing so. We’ll take Charlotte and the Over.

Given the performance portfolios of both teams of late, this line resonates with us. The low-hanging fruit is an enticing choice for those looking to back the Heat. In fact, Miami looks too easy. Usually when we see scenarios like this set up, it is often a trap. The Nets have the rubric and format to beat this outfit albeit they did so less than a month ago, away from home no less. However due to the Heats’ stock flying through the ceiling whilst the Nets’ has crashed through the floor, all has been forgotten. As a result, we have a classic buy-low, sell-high situation materializing here for us to take advantage of. Brooklyn on the Money Line gets the call.