Nascar Sprint Series Can-Am 500 Odds - Free Race Pick

Date: 
November 13, 2:30 PM EST
Location:
TV:

Carl Edwards joined Jimmie Johnson as the first two automatic qualifiers for this year’s championship race with last week’s victory at Texas. Joey Logano ended up second in that race with Martin Truex Jr. taking third. I went with Denny Hamlin at +1500 betting odds as my top-valued pick, but he could only manage to place ninth.

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5DIMES.

Race Favorites

Kevin Harvick has been listed as a +600 favorite to win on Sunday and he could be the strongest play in the field considering that he will probably have to win at Phoenix to keep his Sprint Cup title hopes alive. The precedent for the No. 4 Chevrolet pulling off a ‘must-win’ in this year’s Chase has already been set twice with his previous victories at New Hampshire in the opening round and at Kansas in the Round of 12 when his back was against the wall. Adding most of the value to these odds is Harvick’s victory at Phoenix earlier in the season, which was his sixth trip to Victory Lane at this track in his last eight Sprint Cup events.

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Second on the list of betting odds to win this race at +700 is Kyle Busch. He is currently tied with Joey Logano for third place in the Sprint Cup standings with 4074 total points following a pair of fifth-place runs at Martinsville and Texas, but the No. 18 Toyota racing team is still looking for its first victory in this year’s Chase. He might have a shot at defending last season’s title in the championship race with another strong finish, but the only way to ensure he is in the final field of four at Homestead-Miami is with a win this week. Looking back at Busch’s recent track record at Phoenix, he has finished fourth here in his last two runs.

Denny Hamlin is another Chase driver on the outside looking in right now; holding down the sixth spot in the standings. His odds to punch a ticket to the final four with a win this week have been set at +800 along with Logano. I liked Hamlin’s chances last week at Texas as a high-valued contender, but the pressure will be dialed up even higher come this Sunday afternoon behind the wheel of the No. 11 Toyota. Hamlin raced his way to a third-place finish in the first event at Phoenix this season and his lone victory at this track was in the first race of the 2012 Sprint Cup campaign.

Can-Am 500 Race Prediction

In an effort to squeeze some more value out of these betting odds, I am turning to Matt Kenseth as this week’s top-valued contender. He is another Chase driver that might have to win this race to keep his title hopes alive and the betting odds he gets it done have been set at +1200. He is fifth in the current standings with a total of 4073 points following a fourth-place finish at Martinsville and a seventh-place finish last Sunday driving the No. 20 Toyota. He has yet to win a Chase race this season, but he did take second at both New Hampshire and Charlotte. The reason for the longer odds this week is an average finishing position of 16.3 at Phoenix so the value in these odds has to lie in Kenseth’s high level of motivation to win.

Free Pick: 
Take Matt Kenseth +1200
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