2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Preview and Picks

2023 Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Preview and Picks

Jay Horne
Date: September 24, 3:30 pm
Location: Texas Motor Speedway
TV: NBC

Betting Odds

Last week, NASCAR's Cup Series concluded the opening round of the playoffs at Bristol Motor Speedway. While Denny Hamlin emerged victorious for the 3rd time this season, two prestigious names in the likes of Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick were both eliminated from championship competition. This week the playoffs continue with the opening race in the Round of 12 highlighted by the Cup Series' return to Texas Motor Speedway for the running of the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400.

Before the 2021 season, the Cup Series frequented Texas Motor Speedway on two separate dates on the NASCAR schedule. However, Texas Motor Speedway lost its spring date when Circuit of the Americas was added to the schedule in 2021. Therefore, this Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 will be the first on the 1.5-mile speedway in Texas since last year's event. In that race, Tyler Reddick emerged from a chaotic race that featured a record-breaking 16 cautions to earn a victory. Reddick's victory last year came one week after an early exit in the playoffs, and I have to wonder if another non-title contender could pull off a similar feat this weekend.

Texas Motor Speedway: Fast Facts

  • Kyle Busch leads all active drivers with 4 career wins at Texas.
  • Kevin Harvick (3), Denny Hamlin (3), Joey Logano, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Tyler Reddick are also former winners at Texas.
  • Tyler Reddick owns the best average finishing position (6.8) among all active drivers at Texas through 4 career starts.
  • Chase Briscoe (10.1) and Erik Jones (10.5) also have surprisingly strong average finishing positions at Texas.
  • In the last two races at Texas, Kyle Larson has produced an impressive 125.6 average driver rating and led 275 laps.
  • Ryan Blaney has finished 8th or better in 7 straight races at Texas Motor Speedway.
  • Brad Keselowski has finished 9th or better in 4 straight races at Texas Motor Speedway.
  • Chevrolet drivers have won 3 of the last 4 races at Texas.
  • There have been a minimum of 10 cautions in 4 of the last 5 races at Texas.

If we analyze our in-season performance data over at NASCARWagers for prior races at 1.5-mile speedways this season, we will that William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, and Tyler Reddick have been the best driver/team combinations at the intermediate speedways this season. Personally, I really like how the Toyotas have performed in recent weeks, especially from the 23XI Racing stable that includes both Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace. Notice Wallace is just slightly outside the list of drivers that have produced a triple-digit average rating in the prior 5 races at 1.5-mile speedways.

Betting Odds

Courtesy of Bovada

Jay's Picks

For this weekend’s event, I really like Wallace as a dark horse and betting target in H2H match-ups. Love him or hate him, Wallace has been at his best on the 1.5-mile tracks, and I think he is poised for a quality run again this weekend. Meanwhile, Wallace’s teammate Tyler Reddick should have a great opportunity to go after a 2nd straight win at Texas this week. Reddick dominated this race last year, which has been the only race at Texas in the Next Gen Car. Reddick has the in-season performance and historical data to support the repeat narratives as well. While I’m sure guys like Hamlin, Larson, Byron, and Martin Truex Jr. should be strong, give me Reddick to secure the repeat!

Free Pick: Favorite: Tyler Reddick +750, Dark Horse: Bubba Wallace +1800
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