Underdog Play: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

Underdog Play: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

Darin Zank
Date: May 16, 7:00 pm
Location: Petco Park
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: STL +120/SD -130
Runline: Cards +1.5 -185/Padres -1.5 +170
Total: 7ov -120

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After taking the first two games of this series, the Padres shoot for a sweep of the Cardinals Sunday evening in San Diego. The Padres are playing a bit shorthanded at the moment, but it hasn't seemed to matter; they're 5-1 over their last six games. Rookie lefty Ryan Weathers opens for the home team here against Korean League veteran Kwang-Hyun Kim for the visitors. Here's how we break down this game with our <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/free-mlb-picks&quot; title="Free Expert MLB Picks">free baseball betting pick</a>.
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<h2>
MLB Betting Odds<br />
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<p>
Sunday's <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/odds&quot; title="Today's Baseball Betting Odds">baseball betting odds</a> opened San Diego and Weathers at -135 over St. Louis and Kim, with an over/under of seven runs. Early betting action then dipped the Padres to -130.
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<h2>
Cardinals-Padres MLB Betting Preview<br />
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San Diego took the opener of this series Friday night 5-4, then won Saturday 13-3. The Padres banked as -175 favorites Friday with Joe Musgrove, then at -115 Saturday with Chris Paddack. Also, both those games played over totals of seven runs. With Saturday's win, San Diego is 5-1 over its last six games. At 23-17 overall, the Padres sit in second place in the NL West, just a half-game behind first-place San Francisco. With Saturday's loss, St. Louis is 1-3 over its last four games. But at 23-17 overall, the Cardinals lead the NL Central by three games over second-place Milwaukee. This series is the first meeting between these two teams this season. Last season San Diego beat St. Louis two games to one in an early National League playoff tournament series.
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<h2>
Sunday's Pitching Match-Up<br />
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<p>
<a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/375076&quot; title="Ryan Weathers Pitching Logs">Weathers</a> is 0/3 on quality starts this season, to go along with five appearances in relief. But he's been tough overall. Most recently, last Sunday, he tossed three innings of one-hit shutout ball against the Giants. And over his last five appearances, including an excellent start against the Dodgers three weeks ago, he's allowed just one run and seven hits through 16 1/3 innings. San Diego is 2-1 when Weathers starts this season. This start will be Weathers' first-ever appearance against St. Louis. <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/335172&quot; title="Kawng Hyun Kim Pitching Logs">Kim</a> is 0/5 on quality starts this season, but that's almost entirely the making of a short leash. Three times he's come within three outs of a QS, only to get pulled. Tuesday, he held the Brewers to one run and five hits through 5 1/3 innings of a 6-1 Cardinals victory, and over his last four starts, he's allowed just four runs and 19 hits through 20 innings, with four walks and 20 strikeouts. St. Louis is 5-0 with Kim this season, and he can claim a good part of the credit. In his only previous career start against the Padres, in the playoffs last year, Kim allowed three runs and five hits through just 3 2/3 innings, although the Cardinals won that game anyway 7-4.
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<h2>
Splits With the Sticks<br />
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<p>
St. Louis is batting .276 against left-handed pitching this season, with a .356 team OBP and a .465 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those cause us to rank this lineup among the top three in MLB in this split.
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San Diego is batting .218/.313/.340 against LH pitching this season. The Padres are also operating without several regulars at the moment, including Fernando Tatis.
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<p><section></p>
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<span style="font-size:16px;"><b><span style="color:#008000;">Get more details:</span></b> <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1356356">STL/SD 5/16/21 Matchup Stats</a></span>
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</ul>
<p></section></p>
<h2>
The Bullpens<br />
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<p>
The Cardinals bullpen owns a 4.05 ERA this season, with a 1.34 WHIP and a 1.56 K/BB ratio. The San Diego pen sports an ML-best 2.76 ERA this season, along with a 1.12 WHIP and a 3.39 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top two or three bullpens in Baseball.
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<h2>
MLB Betting Trends<br />
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<ul>
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St. Louis is 11-9 on the road this season.
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St. Louis is 5-2 against left-handed starters this season.
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St. Louis is 8-9 as an underdog this season.
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<h2>
Totals Report<br />
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Totals are split 18-18 in Cardinals games this season.
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Unders are 22-18 in Padres games this season.
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Unders are 15-6 in games played at Petco Park this season.
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Cardinals at Padres Prediction

We're calling the pitching match-up a push, and while San Diego owns the better bullpen, St. Louis gets the check-mark in the splits with the sticks. But the Padres are missing several key people, and you'd think that might come into play. Also, the Cardinals don't want to get swept. So we like St. Louis at the underdog price here for our free MLB pick for Sunday.  

Free Pick: Take the Cards +120
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