St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Odds & Predictions

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs Odds & Predictions

Darin Zank
Date: June 12, 7:15 pm
Location: Wrigley Field
TV: MLB

Betting Odds

Moneyline: STL +160/CHC -174
Runline: STL + 1.5 -136/CHC -1.5 +116
Total: 8.5ov -116

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After taking the opener of this NL Central rivalry series Friday night, the first-place Cubs look for more against the struggling Cardinals Saturday evening at the Friendly Confines. Kyle Hendricks hits the hill for the home team here against fellow righty John Gant for the visitors. How are we playing this game with our <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/free-mlb-picks&quot; title="MLB Baseball Picks">free baseball betting pick</a>?
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<h2>
MLB Betting Odds<br />
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Saturday's <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/odds&quot; title="Baseball Odds From Multiple Sportsbooks">baseball betting lines</a> opened the Cubs at right around -160 for this game with an over/under of nine runs. However, early betting action steamed Chicago 20 cents to -180 and dipped that total to 8.5.
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<h2>
Cardinals-Cubs MLB Betting Preview<br />
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Chicago took the opener of this series Friday afternoon 8-5. The Cubs trailed that game 5-1 going into the bottom of the fifth inning and then scored the game's last seven runs. Chicago won Friday as a -145 betting favorite, and the game played over a total of 9.5. Earlier this week, the Cubs took two of three games out in San Diego. So Chicago is 4-1 over its last five games. At 36-27 overall, the Cubs are tied for the lead in the NL Central with Milwaukee. Chicago is also playing well ahead of schedule against its season wins over of 78.5. St. Louis, meanwhile, split two games in Cleveland earlier this week, and just before that, the Cardinals got swept four games at home by Cincinnati. So St. Louis is only 1-7 over its last eight games. At 32-31 overall, the Cardinals sit in third place in the NL Central, four games behind the Cubs and Brewers. St. Louis is also playing behind schedule against its season wins O/U of 86.5. The Cubs lead the season series with the Cardinals three games to one.
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<h2>
Saturday's Pitching Match-Up<br />
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By our strict standards, <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/57402&quot; title="Kyle Hendricks Pitching Logs">Hendricks</a> is 6/12 on quality starts this season and three for his last five. Last Sunday, he allowed three runs and seven hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 4-3 Chicago victory over San Francisco. And over his last five starts, he's allowed 11 earned runs and 35 hits, although six of those left the park through 34 innings. The Cubs are 7-5 with Hendricks this season and 5-0 over his last five starts. Over his last three starts against St. Louis, two last year and one three weeks ago, Hendricks allowed five ER and 17 hits through 21 innings. Chicago won two of those three games. <a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/79443&quot; title="John Gant Pitching Logs">Gant is only 2/11</a> on quality starts this year but some of that is due to a short leash. Five times this season, he's pitched within three outs of a QS, only to get pulled. Last Sunday, he got clipped by Cincinnati for seven runs and two home runs through four innings of an 8-7 Cardinals loss. But over his seven starts previous to that, Gant allowed only four runs and 28 hits through 36 2/3 innings, although he also walked 23 guys over that span, and that's something he's gotta work on. St. Louis is 6-5 with Gant this season, 3-1 over his last four starts. This will be Gant's first start against the Cubs since 2018, which is kind of already a long time ago.
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<h2>
Splits With the Sticks<br />
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St. Louis is batting .228 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .297 team OBP and a .379 team slugging percentage. Chicago is slashing .230/.309/.403 against RH pitching this season. The Bullpens The St. Louis bullpen owns a 4.51 ERA this season, along with a 1.45 WHIP and a paltry 1.65 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the bottom half-dozen or so bullpens in Baseball right now.
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The Chicago pen owns a 2.65 ERA, which ranks No. 2 in the Majors, along with a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.50 K/BB ratio. Numbers like those lead us to rank this unit among the top half-dozen bullpens in Baseball.
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<h2>
MLB Betting Trends<br />
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The Cardinals are 16-16 on the road this season.
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The Cubs are 22-10 at home this season.
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The Cardinals are 24-27 against right-handed starters this season.
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The Cubs are 23-22 against RH starters this season.
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The Cardinals are 12-17 as underdogs this season.
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The Cubs are 3-1 as favorites of -180 or more this season.
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<h2>
Totals Report<br />
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Overs are 32-27 in Cardinals games this season. Unders are 34-25 in Cubs games this season. Unders are 18-12 in games played at Wrigley Field this season. Unders are 9-2 with Gant this season. Overs are 8-4 with Hendricks this season.
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Cards vs. Cubs Prediction 6/12/21

We gotta give Hendricks the edge in the pitching match-up here, and Chicago owns a significant advantage in the bullpen comparison. So we like the Cubs here. However, we do not like that price. So we'll take a chance and play Chicago against the run line, getting +116, for our free MLB   

Free Pick: Take the Cubs -1.5 +116
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