NY Yankees at Houston Astros Free Pick

NY Yankees at Houston Astros Free Pick

Darin Zank
Date: September 3, 7:10 pm
Location: Minute Maid Park
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Moneyline: NYY +114/Hous -129
Total: 8.5

After taking the first two games of this three-game affair, the Yankees shoot for the sweep of the Astros in Houston Sunday night. Christian Javier hits the hill for the home team here against Michael King for the visitors.

How are we playing this game with our free baseball betting pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s baseball betting market opened Houston and Javier at around -155 over New York and King, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then goosed the Astros 25 cents to -180.

Yankees-Astros Betting Preview

New York grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 6-2, then won Saturday’s game 5-4. The Yankees won Friday as +155 underdogs against Justin Verlander, then as +165 dogs Saturday.

With Saturday’s win, New York is 5-1 over its last six games. But at 67-69 overall, the Yankees trail Texas by 8.5 games in the battle for the third and final American League wild-card spot.

Meanwhile, with Saturday’s loss, Houston is 5-2 over its last seven games. At 77-60 overall, the Astros trail first-place Seattle by one game in the AL West.

New York leads the season series with Houston four games to two.

Sunday’s Pitching Match-Up

Javier is 0 for his last five on quality starts. Monday, he gave up four runs and six hits through four innings against Boston, although Houston won that game 13-5. And over his last five starts, he’s allowed 17 runs - 16 earned - and 27 hits through 23 1/3 innings.

The Astros are 18-7 with Javier this season, but while they’re also 4-0 his last four times out, he can’t claim much credit for that.

Over his last three starts against the Yankees, two last season and one earlier this season, Javier allowed four runs and seven hits through 15 innings. Houston won two of those three games.

King is making his fourth start of this season, to go along with 40 appearances in relief. Tuesday, he held Detroit scoreless on three hits through four frames of a 4-2 New York victory. And last Thursday, he allowed one unearned run through 2 2/3 innings against Washington.

Over two appearances this season against the Astros, King allowed zero runs and two hits through 2 2/3 innings, with zero walks against four strikeouts.

Splits With the Sticks

New York is batting .222 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .298 team OBP and a .388 team slugging percentage. Numbers like those lead us to rank this line-up among the bottom handful in Baseball in this split.

Houston is slashing .248/.324/.408 against RH pitching.

The Bullpens

The Astros bullpen owns a 3.65 ERA this season, along with a 1.28 WHIP and a 2.70 K/BB ratio.

The Yankees pen owns an ML-best 3.20 ERA, an ML-best 1.20 WHIP, and a 2.46 K/BB ratio.

So our take is New York might own the best bullpen in Baseball, and Houston’s ain’t bad, either.

MLB Betting Trends

New York is 31-36 on the road this season and 52-59 against right-handed starters.

Houston is 35-33 at home and 51-44 against RH starters.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 67-62 in Yankees games this season.
  • The overs are 72-62 in Astros games.
  • The overs are 38-28 at Minute Maid Park this season.

Yankees vs. Astros ML Pick 9/3/23

Houston might own the edge in the pitching match-up, but it’s close. From there, the Astros also own an edge with the sticks, but New York gets the checkmark in the bullpen comparison. So, from what we can tell, there’s no way the line on this game should be so high. Betting baseball is often about betting the value on the dime lines, and the value here resides with the Yankees catching that underdog price.
 

Free Pick: Take the Yankees +114
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