Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Odds & Predictions

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees Odds & Predictions

Darin Zank
Date: October 11, 7:30 pm
Location: Yankee Stadium
TV: TBS

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cle +180/NYY -220
Total: 7

<p>The Yankees stormed out to a huge lead in the American League East this season and cruised from there to the No. 2 seed in the AL playoffs. The Indians - err, Guardians - played about .500 ball for much of this season, then steamed their way to the AL Central title. Now, these teams meet in a best-of-five American League divisional-round playoff series beginning Tuesday night in the Bronx.</p>
<p>Gerrit Cole gets the call for the Pinstripes here against breakout Cal Quantrill for Cleveland.</p>
<p>How are we playing this series opener with our free baseball betting pick?</p>
<h2>MLB Playoff Betting Odds</h2>
<p>The divisional-round baseball betting lines opened New York and Cole at around -220 over Cleveland and Quantrill, with an over/under of seven runs. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.</p>
<p>The Yankees are also lined as -225 favorites to win this ALDS, with the Guardians getting +180 as the underdogs.</p>
<h2>Guardians-Yankees Game 1 Betting Preview </h2>
<p>Cleveland reached this American League divisional-round series by sweeping Tampa Bay out in two games in a wild-card series over the weekend. The Guardians won Game 1 against the Rays last Friday 2-1, then got a walk-off home run from Oscar Gonzalez in the bottom of the 15th to win Game 2 Saturday 1-0.</p>
<p>So Cleveland is back in the ALDS for the fourth time in the last six seasons.</p>
<p>The Guardians went 92-70 this season to win the AL Central and easily played over their wins over/under of 76.5. Cleveland only sat at 54-52 heading into the far turn but played 38-18 from there and won the division by 11 games.</p>
<p>Stretching back a month or so and including their wild-card sweep, the Guardians are 26-6 over their last 32 games.</p>
<p>New York, meanwhile, reached this ALDS by winning 99 games this season, which earned it the AL East title, the No. 2 seed in the AL playoffs, a wild-card bye, and home-field advantage for this series. The Yankees started 61-23 this season, built a huge lead in their divisional race, but only played 38-40 from there. But they hung on to win the East by seven games and played over their seasons wins O/U of 91.5.</p>
<p>New York is back in the ALDS for the fifth time over the last six seasons.</p>
<p>The Yankees beat Cleveland by seven games in the regular-season standings and took the season series from the Guardians five games to one.</p>
<h2>Game 1 Pitching Match-Up</h2>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/48274&quot; title="Gerrit Cole Pitching Game Logs">Cole</a> hit 21/33 on quality starts this season but finished two for his last five and had a little problem with long balls. Last Tuesday, he held Texas to three runs - two earned - and six hits through six innings, with zero walks and nine strikeouts, although New York lost that game 3-2. But over his last five starts, he allowed 18 runs and 22 hits, including nine homers, through 29 1/3 innings.</p>
<p>The Yankees played 21-12 with Cole this season, and that’s about what they should have been, based on his performances.</p>
<p>Over two starts against Cleveland, this season Cole allowed just two runs and seven hits through 12 2/3 innings, with four walks and 15 whiffs. The Yanks won both of those games.</p>
<p><a class="advblue" href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/pitcherlog/271591&quot; title="Cal Quantrill Guardians Pitching Game Stats">Quantrill</a> hit 16/32 on quality starts this year and finished two for his last three. Last Tuesday, he held Kansas City to one run and four hits through five innings of a 5-3 Guardians victory. And over his last three starts, he allowed just three runs and 12 hits through 17 innings.</p>
<p>Cleveland played 22-10 with Quantrill this season and an amazing 16-1 his last 17 times out!</p>
<p>In his only start against the Yankees this season, back in April, Quantrill allowed three runs and six hits through 6 1/3 innings of a 5-4 Guardians loss.</p>
<h2>Splits With the Sticks </h2>
<p>Cleveland batted .259 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .321 team OBP and a .396 team slugging percentage.</p>
<p>New York slashed .241/.323/.422 against right-handed pitching.</p>
<h2>The Bullpens</h2>
<p>The Yankees bullpen posted a 2.97 ERA this season, along with a 1.19 WHIP and a 2.46 K/BB ratio.</p>
<p>The Guardians pen put up a 3.05 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 3.08 K/BB ratio.<br />
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<span style="font-size:16px; color:#008000;">Get more details:</span> <a href="https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/mlb/matchup/1772719">Cleveland Guardians at NY Yankees Game 1 Betting Stats</a>
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</ul>
<p></section></p>
<h2>MLB Betting Trends</h2>
<p>Cleveland played 46-35 on the road this season and 64-53 against right-handed starters.</p>
<p>New York played 57-24 at home and 73-48 against right-handed starters.</p>
<h2>Totals Report </h2>
<ul>
<li>The Totals split 78-78 in Guardians games this season.</li>
<li>The Unders played 81-77 in Yankees games.</li>
<li>The Overs played 41-37 at Yankees Stadium this season.</li>
</ul>

Guardians at Yankees Game 1 Prediction

We give Cole the edge in the pitching match-up, but it’s closer than first glance might indicate. From there, New York owns an edge in the splits with the sticks, while the bullpen comparison is tough to call. So when we add up the differences, they don’t warrant so high a price. The line on this game is inflated because one team is called the “Yankees,” they’ve got a guy named “Judge” in the line-up, and the pitcher is named “Cole.” But the betting value for Game 1 resides with Cleveland at that fat underdog price.

Free Pick: Take Cleveland
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