Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Pick

Darin Zank
Date: July 30, 8:15 pm
Location: Busch Stadium
TV: FS Midwest

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Cubs -110/Cardinals +100
Total: 9

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<p>It's nearly August, and the Cubs and Cardinals are tied for first place in the NL Central, heading into the opener of a critical three-game series in St. Louis Tuesday night. Which way are we going here for our free MLB pick?
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<h2>MLB BETTING ODDS   </h2>
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Tuesday's MLB betting odds opened Chicago at around -110 over St. Louis, with an over/under of nine runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to about -120.
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<h2>CUBS VS. CARDINALS SET-UP </h2>
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Chicago just dropped two of three games at Milwaukee over the weekend, avoiding the sweep with an 11-4 victory Sunday. The Cubs then had Monday off.
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Just before that series, Chicago lost two of three to San Francisco, so the Cubs are 0-2 over their last two series and 2-5 over their last seven games.
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St. Louis, meanwhile, just lost two of three games at home to Houston over the weekend, falling Sunday 6-2. The Cardinals then also had Monday off.
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Just before that St. Louis swept four games from Pittsburgh, and just before that they took three of four from Cincinnati. Going back a bit further the Cardinals are 4-1 over their last five series and 12-4 over their last 16 games.
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At 56-49 overall Chicago and St. Louis are tied for the lead in the NL Central, one game ahead of the third-place Brewers. The Cubs and Cards are tied for second place in the National League wild-card race.
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The Cubbies lead the season series with St. Louis six games to three. Also, the home team is 9-0 in this season series, but that sounds like a trend due for a correction.
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<h2>TUESDAY'S STARTING ARMS </h2>
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Wainwright, by our stringent standards, is 8/19 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last two. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs on five hits and four walks through five innings against the Pirates, although the Cardinals won that game anyway 14-8. And just before that, he got clipped by the Reds for seven runs and nine hits through only 3 1/3 innings, although St. Louis won that game 12-11.
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On the season the Cardinals are 10-9 with Wainwright, and while they're 4-0 over his last four starts, he can only claim about half-credit for that.
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Over three starts already this year against Chicago Wainwright allowed nine runs and 14 hits through 17 1/3 innings. St. Louis lost two of those three games.
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Darvish is just 5/21 on quality starts this year but two for his last three. Last Tuesday he allowed four runs and six hits through six innings of a 5-4 Cubs loss to the Giants. But over his two starts previous to that he allowed zero runs and four hits through 12 innings, with 15 strikeouts.
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Chicago is 9-12 with Darvish this year but 2-1 over his last three starts.
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In two starts this season against the Cardinals Darvish allowed six runs on nine hits and eight walks through 10 innings. The Cubs split those two games.
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<h2>TUESDAY'S BATTING SPLITS</h2>
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Chicago is batting .257/.335/.458 against right-handed pitching this season. Numbers like those help this lineup rank among the top half-dozen in the Majors in this split.
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St. Louis is batting .245/.318/.409 against RH pitching this season.
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<h2>THE BULLPENS</h2>
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The Cubs bullpen owns a 4.22 ERA this season and a 1.37 WHIP while allowing a .742 OPS.
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The Cardinals pen owns a 3.87 ERA and an ML-low 1.18 WHIP while allowing an ML-low .670 OPS. So we rank this unit as the best bullpen in Baseball at the moment.
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<h2>TOTALS REPORT</h2>
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    <li>Unders are 53-49 in Cubs games this season.</li>
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    <li>Unders are 54-45 in Cardinals games this season.</li>
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    <li>Unders are 30-19 in games played at Busch Stadium this season.</li>
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    <li>Unders are 5-4 in Cubs-Cards games this season.</li>
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Cubs at Cardinals Prediction 07/30/2019

Darvish gets our handicapping check-mark in this pitching match-up, and while St. Louis owns the better bullpen Chicago owns the edge in the splits with the sticks. Also, when we see a good team like the Cubs go 2-5 over a seven-game period, we expect a correction. We like the Cubbies for our free MLB pick here.

Free Pick: Take the Chicago Cubs -110
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