Louisiana State Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide Free Pick

Louisiana State Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide Free Pick

Darin Zank
Date: November 4, 7:45 pm
Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Alabama -3
Moneyline: LSU +140/Alabama -165
Total: 60

It’s the big one before the Big One in the SEC when Alabama hosts LSU Saturday afternoon at Tuscaloosa. This game, as it often does, will probably decide who wins the SEC’s West Division. And while the Crimson Tide own the edge in this rivalry, the Tigers won this game last year in overtime.

This might be a good one, too.

NCAAF Betting Odds

The Week 10 college football betting market opened Alabama at -3.5 for Saturday night, with an over/under of right around 60. Early betting action then shaved the hook off that line.

LSU-Alabama Betting Preview

The Tigers ride a three-game winning streak into Tuscaloosa after brushing off Army two weeks ago 62-0. LSU then enjoyed last week off.

Louisiana State, favored by 33 points over the Black Knights, hit the scoreboard on six of its first seven possessions, had the spread covered by halftime, and tossed a shutout on defense.

The Tigers racked up 570 yards of offense on Army, the seventh game in a row LSU’s hit the 500-yard mark.

Two games ago Louisiana State beat Auburn 48-18, covering at -12. Three games ago the Tigers came from behind to win at Missouri 49-39, using a late pick-6 to cover at -6.5.

Meanwhile, the Tide roll a six-game winning streak into Saturday after topping Tennessee two weeks ago 34-20. Alabama then also enjoyed last week off.

The Tide, favored by nine points over the Volunteers, gave up the first 13 points and trailed 20-7 at the half. But ‘Bama won the second half 27-0 and used a late defensive score to cover that spread.

Alabama actually got out-gained by the Vols 404-358 but almost half the yardage the Tide defense allowed came in the first quarter. That unit really clamped down in the second half.

Two games ago Alabama beat Arkansas 24-21 but couldn’t cover at -19. Three games ago the Tide won at Texas A&M 26-20 and covered at -2.5.

At 5-0 in SEC play Alabama leads the West Division by one game over LSU and Ole Miss, both at 4-1. Also, the Tide owns a 24-10 victory over the Rebels while the Tigers lost to the Rebs 55-49. Also, Ole Miss plays Texas A&M Saturday and at Georgia next week.

So the winner of this LSU-Alabama game will probably win the West.

These teams have played three common opponents so far this season, Arkansas, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. The Tide played those foes to 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, the Tigers to 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS.

On the injury front, LSU is banged-up on defense, especially in the secondary. Which leads us to think about betting the over on this game.

LSU-Alabama Recent History

The Tide beat the Tigers eight times in a row through 2018 but LSU is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS over the last four meetings. Last year the Tigers, as 13-point home dogs, scored a touchdown and a 2-point conversion in the bottom of the first overtime to pull a 32-31 upset.

College Football Betting Trends

Alabama is 6-2 ATS its last eight games favored by less than 10 points.

Totals Report

The overs are 8-0 in Tigers games this season, which are averaging a very healthy 74 points.

The overs are 5-2-1 in Tide games, which are averaging 47 points.

LSU at Alabama College Betting Pick

LSU gets the check-mark on offense but Alabama gets it on defense. And we like betting on the defense in match-ups like this season. Also, the Tide own the better performance against common opponents this season, and they’ve been very good when giving up short spreads. And while Alabama’s struggled a bit on offense this season, that Tigers secondary looks vulnerable. We’ll take the Tide for Saturday night.

Free Pick: Take the Tide -3
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