New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames CFB Betting Prediction

New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames CFB Betting Prediction

Date: December 1, 7:00 pm
Location: Williams Stadium

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Lib -10.5
Moneyline: NM St. +300/Lib -385
Total: 54.5

Unbeaten Liberty and New Mexico State are both newcomers to Conference USA this season, but they'll play for the CUSA championship Friday night on the Liberty campus in Lynchburg.

The Flames stand as one of the last five undefeated teams in FBS ball this season and still harbor hopes of playing in a New Year’s Day bowl game.

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Meanwhile, the Aggies are playing for their first conference championship in 45 years.

CUSA Championship Betting Odds

The Championship Week college football betting market opened Liberty as an 11-point favorite for Friday night, with an over/under of right around 54.5. Early betting action shaved that line to 10.5.

According to Sagarin's ratings, the line on this game should be 10.5 points.

CUSA Championship Betting Preview

The Aggies ride an eight-game winning streak into this CUSA title tilt after completing their regular season with a 20-17 victory over Jacksonville State last Saturday. New Mexico State, as a two-point home dog, scored the first 14 points of the game and led 17-3 at the half. The Aggies later allowed the Gamecocks to tie it at 17-17 with less than a minute to go but drove 50 yards in five plays to a game-winning field goal at the buzzer.

New Mexico State out-gained JSU 455-333 but kept the game close by committing four turnovers.

The Aggies only started 2-3 this season, with a 33-17 loss at Liberty. Since then, they’re 8-0 both SU and ATS, and that includes a 31-10 win at Auburn of the SEC two weeks ago. And Auburn just about beat Alabama the other day.

Meanwhile the Flames arrive to Friday night unscathed after winning at UTEP last Saturday 42-28. Liberty, favored at -17, led 28-7 at the half and 42-14 in the fourth quarter. But the Flames then pissed the cover away by allowing the Miners to score two meaningless touchdowns in the last four minutes, the second with just 17 seconds left.

Liberty ran the ball for 441 yards while holding UTEP to 50 yards on the ground.

Two weeks ago Liberty led UMass 49-10 in the fourth quarter but allowed the last 15 points, the last seven with less than a minute to go, to give up the cash at -26.

But prior to that the Flames were 8-2 ATS, covering some big numbers. In fact, Liberty would be 9-3 ATS playing against -10.5 all season.

New Mexico State-Liberty Recent History

These teams have actually met six times over the last six seasons, the Flames going 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS. Back in September these teams met for their first game as CUSA members, Liberty winning at home 33-17.

The Flames, favored at -9.5, trailed the Aggies 17-13 early but scored the last 20 points of the game.

Liberty out-gained New Mexico State that night 526-339.

College Football Betting Trends

New Mexico State, which won a total of eight games from 2018-21, is 17-5 SU, 17-4-1 ATS its last 22 times out.

Totals Report

The Unders are 9-4 in Aggies games this season, which are averaging 48 total points.

The Overs are 7-5 in Flames games, which are averaging 62 points.

New Mexico State Aggies vs Liberty Flames Pick ATS

Liberty owns statistical edges on both sides of the ball, but to us, they’re not large enough to warrant a double-digit spread. Also, while the Flames won this match-up earlier this season, New Mexico State is better right now than it was that night. We’re not calling for the outright upset here, but we like the Aggies plus the points.

Free Pick: Take the Aggies +10.5
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