Free Pick & Analysis: CFL Western Final - BC Lions vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers

Free Pick & Analysis: CFL Western Final - BC Lions vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers

The Prariefox
Date: November 11, 6:30 pm
Location: IG Field

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Winnipeg -4.5
Total: 50

Game Preview

Once again, the BC Lions travel to Winnipeg for a chance to compete for the Grey Cup. This year, they're heading into the match as +4.5 road underdogs, just a half-point more than last year. It will be another challenging task as the Bombers are tough to beat at IG Field, boasting an 8-1 home record this season.

Season Encounters

The location of the Western final was decided in the third and final regular-season meeting between these two teams in week 18. Winnipeg eventually won in overtime, 34-26, completing the comeback and earning the right to host the West final. The previous two games were held in Winnipeg, where BC stunned the Bombers with a 30-6 victory as +6 underdogs. Winnipeg got their revenge in the rematch, winning convincingly 50-14 as -5.5 home favorites.

Lions' Recent Performance

The Lions are coming off a respectable 41-30 home win over the Calgary Stampeders in last week's Western semi-final. The Lions were in control of the match and led the scoreboard from the second quarter onwards. They ended the first half up 28-13 and finished the game with a win and cover of the -7 point spread. Quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. played well, completing 28 of 39 pass attempts for 413 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Adams also scrambled for 54 yards and three touchdowns. Despite the successful passing game, the Lions only gained 77 yards on the ground and are currently the ninth-ranked road rushing team in the league.

Bombers' Winning Streak

Winnipeg is on a four-game winning streak since losing to Hamilton 29-23 as -7 road favorites. They've been 4-0 against the spread in that time. Even though the Bombers have been winning and covering, they haven't been in control of games and have had to come back in the fourth quarter against both quality and lesser opponents. Quarterback Zach Collaros has turned the ball over in almost every game this year, fumbling twice in the red zone, which almost cost Winnipeg a crucial win in BC. Having the number one overall home scoring stat in the league has covered up many of these blemishes, but Winnipeg could be vulnerable if they lose the turnover battle on Saturday.

Injury Report

BC has four players of note who did not practice in full on Wednesday: linebackers Jordan Hinsperger and Ben Hladik, as well as defensive backs Jalon Edwards-Cooper and Garry Peters, who was limited. Winnipeg had four wide receivers who did not practice: Dalton Schoen, Nic Demski, Rasheed Bailey, and Jalen Murphy. None of the players have been officially ruled out of Saturday's contest.

Game Day Forecast

The forecast for the game is clear and cold, with the possibility of wind. This could significantly impact both passing games.

BC at Winnipeg Western Final Pick ATS

The tried-and-true recipe for success in November in the CFL is running the ball on offense, playing solid defense, and not giving up big plays on special teams. BC might have the advantage on special teams, but their ninth-ranked road rushing stat, combined with a defense that's been exposed recently, won't be enough to get it done against a team that can score quickly and furiously like the Bombers.

Free Pick: Take Winnipeg -4.5
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