Watford vs. Chelsea Picks 7/4/20

Watford vs. Chelsea Picks 7/4/20

Dan Jamison
Date: July 4, 3:00 pm
Location: Stamford Bridge
TV: NBCSN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Watford +1/Chelsea -1
Moneyline: Watford +700/Chelsea -239/Draw +350
Total: Over 2.5 (-150)/Under 2.5 (+110)

<h2>
Last Time Out:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Watford lost 3-1 to Southampton; Chelsea fell 3-2 to West Ham United.
</p>
<h2>
Previous meeting:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Chelsea defeated Watford 2-1 on Nov. 2 at Vicarage Road.
</p>
<h2>
About the Matchup:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Figure out Chelsea at your own risk. The Blues have been the only team to defeat Manchester City since the restart, something not even Liverpool could come close to doing. They also managed a loss to a West Ham United side that showed them 73 percent of the possession. Meanwhile, Watford has just one point since the restart and now finds itself in the last place it wanted to be: a relegation battle where it's one lousy result from slipping into the drop zone. Any draws that Watford can get against a stronger side would go a long way toward seeing the Hornets safely through to another season of the Premier League. But this isn't a matchup that's led itself to draws: a draw has only occurred once in the past nine meetings between these teams.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Watford:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The Watford attack hasn't gotten off to a strong return, as it's scored just one goal during the run of play since the pause, and that came in stoppage time against Leicester City. Otherwise, Watford has a shutout loss to Burnley and a 3-1 setback to Southampton where the only goal the Hornets scored was actually an own goal by Southampton.
</p>
<p>
It's not that surprising, given that Watford has just 29 goals in 32 matches, third-worst in the Premier League. Plus. Troy Deeney leads the Hornets with six goals this season but has now gone four games without scoring, having failed to find the net ever since Watford's memorable win over Liverpool. In short, Watford is struggling to find ideas, which is not where you want to be at this point of the year when you're in 17th.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Chelsea:<br />
</h2>
<p>
A look at the standings would tell you that Chelsea has done just as well at home as it has on the road, as the Blues are an identical 8-3-5 both at Stamford Bridge and away. A look at recent form would tell you that Chelsea is a home-pitch hero at the moment, as the Blues handled Manchester City — the team that just throttled champion Liverpool, in case you missed it — with ease at Stamford Bridge but followed up with a loss at relegation candidate West Ham. In short, Frank Lampard's side is capable of just about anything on the spectrum, and what happens here will be determined in large part by the play of its scoring stars, Willian and Christian Pulisic. The pair have combined for five of Chelsea's six goals since the restart, and if at least one of them is on, it becomes that much harder for opponents to take something away. The problem against West Ham was that the Blues were a step slow and couldn't ever get themselves on track, appearing to be the far less interested of the two sides. Against another relegation-threatened side, that can't happen again.
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<h2>
Dan's Best Bets:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Even though Watford is struggling, this matchup tends to produce goals. The teams have played nine times as Premier League members, and both sides have scored in seven of those meetings, with the lone exception being the only draw in the series (a 0-0 affair in 2016) and a 3-0 Chelsea win last year at Stamford Bridge. Because of this, I think the safest bet on the board is Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals, which pays at even money. The best bet, however, is Chelsea to win and both to score, which pays at +200. Given Watford's scoring issues this year, that's a lot riskier, as Chelsea could easily get three goals on its own, but finding a Watford goal will be a fair amount tougher. Still, Watford did put three on Liverpool and has had no problem scoring on Chelsea in the past, so I think both to score makes a lot of sense. Another bet I like is the second half to produce more goals, which will pay even money. Chelsea is very much a second-half team, as 11 of its last 14 matches across all competitions have seen more goals scored in the second half (and the other three saw an equal amount in both halves). If you want to bet the over/under in this match, I'd cut down on your juice by betting over 1.5 goals in the second half alone. Again, Chelsea is a second-half team, and eight of the Blues' past nine Premier League matches have seen two goals or more scored in the second half (and the exception was Manchester United, which scored one of its two goals in the final minute of the first half.) To me, taking this bet at -115 instead of taking the over at -150 makes a lot of sense.
</p>
<h2>
Dan's Score Prediction:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Let's think about this for a minute. Chelsea has scored exactly two goals in all three of their Premier League matches since the restart. Watford has scored exactly one goal in two of three of their Premier League matches since the restart. This match has produced three goals precisely in each of the past three meetings. And Chelsea already won at Vicarage Road in November by a 2-1 count.
</p>
<p>
Yeah, I'm not going to overthink this. Everything about this matchup screams Chelsea 2, Watford 1, so I'll take that at +750.
</p>

Watford vs. Chelsea Prediction 7/4/20

Even though Watford is struggling, this matchup tends to produce goals. The teams have played nine times as Premier League members, and both teams have scored in seven of those meetings, with the lone exception being the only draw in the series (a 0-0 affair in 2016) and a 3-0 Chelsea win last year at Stamford Bridge.

 

Because of this, I think the safest bet on the board is Chelsea to win and over 2.5 goals, which pays at even money. The best bet, however, is Chelsea to win and both to score, which pays at +200. Given Watford's scoring issues this year, that's a lot riskier, as Chelsea could easily get three goals on its own, but finding a Watford goal will be a fair amount tougher. Still, Watford did put three on Liverpool and has had no problem scoring on Chelsea in the past, so I think both to score makes a lot of sense.

 

Another bet I like is the second half to produce more goals, which will pay even money. Chelsea is very much a second-half team, as 11 of its past 14 matches across all competitions have seen more goals scored in the second half (and the other three saw an equal amount in both halves). If you want to bet the over/under in this match, I'd cut down on your juice by betting over 1.5 goals in the second half alone. Again, Chelsea is a second-half team, and eight of the Blues' past nine Premier League matches have seen two goals or more scored in the second half (and the exception was Manchester United, which scored one of its two goals in the final minute of the first half.) To me, taking this bet at -115 instead of taking the over at -150 makes a lot of sense.

 

Free Pick: Chelsea Win + Both teams score +200
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