Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal Odds & Picks

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Arsenal Odds & Picks

Dan Jamison
Date: March 14, 12:30 pm
Location: Emirates Stadium
TV: NBCSN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Spurs +0.25/Arsenal -0.25
Moneyline: Spurs +195/Arsenal +140/Draw +240
Total: Over 2.5 (-115)/Under 2.5 (-115)

<h2>
Last Time Out:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Spurs smashed Crystal Palace 4-1; Arsenal drew 1-1 with Burnley.
</p>
<h2>
Previous meeting:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Spurs defeated Arsenal 2-0 on Dec. 6 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
</p>
<h2>
About the Matchup:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The North London Derby takes place, and strangely, it's actually of secondary importance to both of these clubs. That's because it falls smack in the middle of the Europa League's round of 16, with both teams still alive in that competition and a Champions League place awaiting the winner. Spurs can still qualify for the Champions League via the Premier League, and if they're going to do so, getting a win here is absolutely vital. However, Emirates Stadium hasn't exactly been fertile territory for Spurs, which has an all-time record of 1-8-5 in Premier League matches at Arsenal's ground since the stadium opened in 2006.
</p>
<p>
Arsenal, on the other hand, has bet everything on the Europa League, as it's too far behind to even think about fourth place. However, the Gunners really don't want to take another setback against their biggest rival. Arsenal lost two matches to Spurs in 2020, and the Gunners haven't actually beaten Tottenham since 2018, when they claimed a 4-2 win over Spurs at the Emirates. Given that it's already been a tumultuous season on the red side of north London, taking their first loss at home to Spurs since 2010 would be a disaster for Mikel Arteta's crew.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Spurs:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The return of Gareth Bale has reignited Spurs and put them back in the mix for a top-four place. Bale was once Spurs' top man, a role he's since ceded to Harry Kane, and he's come back with a vengeance in Tottenham's past three matches. After spending most of the season barely resembling the player who was one of the most feared in the world, the Welshman has scored four goals in three matches, seemingly giving Spurs the third scoring option it needs to complement Kane and Son Heung Min, who have been the league's best partnership by a mile.
</p>
<p>
Kane and Son have set each other up for 14 of Tottenham's markers this season, a Premier League record for a duo, and history says that Kane will likely be involved in the scoring in this meeting. Arsenal fans probably have nightmares about Kane, given that the 27-year-old has scored in 10 of his past 12 meetings with the Gunners, including four of the past five trips to the Emirates. Son is no slouch against Arsenal either, scoring in each of the past two meetings with the Gunners. However, unlike Kane, the Korean has found Arsenal's stadium to be his kryptonite, as he has never scored in five trips to the Emirates.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Arsenal:<br />
</h2>
<p>
To its credit, Arsenal seems to be willing to see things through under Mikel Arteta, who's mostly been taking two steps forward and one step back in his second season in charge. Truth be told, things are a lot better than they seem for the Gunners, who play six of the bottom 10 sides in the Premier League over their final 10 matches of the season.
</p>
<p>
The problem for Arteta's side is that it tends to be rather wasteful with its shooting opportunities. The Gunners no longer get bossed on possession, but their shooting touch is often rather inaccurate. A great example came in a draw with Burnley, which saw just three of 15 shots actually find their way to the target. Arsenal probably would have struggled to find a winner anyway given Burnley's defending, but spraying everything every place but the penalty area really didn't help their case. The real issue with Arsenal is that if the rumors around the club are true, the Gunners are really down to one key threat on offense, as Alexandre Lacazette is rumored to already be eyeing his exit from North London. Lacazette has scored nine goals on the season to tie for the lead with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, but he's started three of the past four matches on the bench, suggesting that Arteta doesn't have trust in the Frenchman right now.
</p>
<h2>
Dan's Score Prediction:<br />
</h2>
<p>
You can probably guess where I'm going with this pick if you've read this far, but I think it makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, so does Vegas, so there's nowhere near as much value as I would like here. But there's nothing wrong with taking close to six times your stake in profit if you can nail this bet, and I'm going to go with what the numbers and my feelings are telling me even with the lower stake. I'll take a 1-1 draw at +575.
</p>

Dan's Best Bets

With both sides playing a Europa League match earlier in the week, this could be another low-scoring affair. Three of the past five meetings between these rivals have seen two goals or less, and getting close to even money for a repeat is a solid way to play this in a conservative manner.

 

 

But of course, we never stop there when it comes to soccer bets, and for this match, I'm looking at taking a draw where both teams score at +325. Four of the past six meetings between these two at the Emirates, including 2019's 2-2 matchup that saw Aubameyang, Lacazette and Kane all find the net. Draws have been fairly common in this rivalry anyway (half of the past 12 matches in the Premier League have ended in a stalemate), and with both teams playing three days prior, there's a good chance that this match doesn't open up very wide. Given that there's never been a scoreless draw between the sides at the Emirates, I feel good about a score draw here, but if you're worried about that possibility, there's nothing wrong with playing +240 for any kind of draw.

 

 

Finally, I'd take a shot on an equal number of goals in each half at +230. I expect a low-scoring score draw, and the last three times that this matchup has ended as such, an equal number of goals were scored in each half. I'll gladly take more than double my money for something with such a history.

Get $60 Free Picks