RB Leipzig vs. Union Berlin Odds & Predictions

RB Leipzig vs. Union Berlin Odds & Predictions

Dan Jamison
Date: May 22, 9:30 am
Location: Stadion An der Alten Forsterei
TV: ESPN+

Betting Odds

Point Spread: RB Leipzig -0.5/Union +0.5
Moneyline: RB Leipzig -105/Union +230/Draw +280
Total: Over 3.5 (+110)/Under 3.5 (-148)

<h2>Last time out: </h2>
<p>RB Leipzig drew 2-2 with Wolfsburg; Union Berlin drew 1-1 with Bayer Leverkusen.
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<h2>Previous meeting: </h2>
<p>RB Leipzig defeated Union Berlin 1-0 on January 20 at Red Bull Arena in Leipzig, Germany.</p>
<h2>About the Matchup: </h2>
<p>What's a win worth? For Union Berlin, the answer could be a few hundred thousand euros. Thanks to a gutsy draw against Bayer Leverkusen that saw the Iron Ones come back in the second half, Union passed Borussia Monchengladbach for seventh place and the one Bundesliga spot in the new Europa Conference League for next season as the teams enter the final day of the season.
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<p>It's nowhere near the prestige of the Champions League, but it's still European competition, something that Union hadn't brought to East Berlin since 2002 when it made its only appearance in European competition by reaching the UEFA Cup. Because they've now got a one-point lead on Monchengladbach, a win of any kind will be enough to seal the deal for Union.
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<p>And even though they've got the strongest opposition of any of the teams in contention, it looks like they've got the right opponent for this situation. Although Monchengladbach will be facing 16th-placed Werder Bremen, the River Islanders are desperate to avoid relegation and will throw everything they have at getting a result in their match. Not so with RB Leipzig, because the Red Bulls appear to have thrown in the towel on this season and have nothing to play for anyway. Leipzig knows it's going to finish second in the Bundesliga now, but the Red Bulls' goal was to finally dethrone Bayern Munich and win the league. When that didn't happen, the disinterest set in at Leipzig, which appears anxious to just get the year over with. Can Union take advantage and end its 19-year drought? </p>
<h2>Scouting RB Leipzig:</h2>
<p>For most of the season, this was a tough side that played good defense, attacked when the situation called for it, and genuinely earned its reputation as one of Germany's strongest teams. But as usually happens in the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich dictates everything, and the Bavarians are almost singlehandedly responsible for the Red Bulls' decline this year.
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<p>It started on April 3, when Leipzig couldn't get the job done at home and fell 1-0 to Bayern, creating a gap that the Red Bulls couldn't overcome and allowing Bayern to clinch yet another Bundesliga title. But the Bavarians weren't done torturing Leipzig. Bayern coach Hansi Flick then decided he'd step down at the end of the season, and ten days after that announcement, Bayern had its new coach: RB Leipzig boss Julian Nagelsmann…who would move to Munich after the season was over at Leipzig.<br />
That announcement came down on April 27, and predictably, the Red Bulls haven't won in the Bundesliga since. They managed to cobble together enough to get by Werder in the German Cup semifinal, but Borussia Dortmund handled them with ease in the final and in Bundesliga action, and the Red Bulls got ripped apart in the first half by Wolfsburg last week before scrambling to earn a draw. Leipzig was struggling with motivation as it was, and now they enter as a team in a flux with two consecutive road losses in the Bundesliga to their name.</p>
<h2>Scouting Union Berlin: </h2>
<p>To make matters worse for Leipzig, East Berlin has been an iron fortress in 2021. Union lost its season opener to Augsburg at home, but since then, it hasn't lost once on its ground. Not even league kingpin Bayern Munich could get more than a draw when it came to Union, which has prided itself on excellent defense and has taken points from five of its past seven Bundesliga matches.
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<p>The problem for Union is that this time, a draw isn't enough. The Iron Ones have made it this far because of their ability to get draws on bad days (their 14 draws is the most in the Bundesliga), but a 15th draw would open the door for Monchengladbach or Stuttgart to steal their spot in the Europa Conference League. The good news for the Iron Ones is that they've won three of four at home, and they looked the better side at Bayer Leverkusen last week. If they can get Max Kruse going again (he leads Union with ten goals but hasn't scored since March 20 against Eintracht Frankfurt) and keep up the attack they showed at Leverkusen, Union will be in great shape.</p>
<h2>Dan's Score Prediction:</h2>
<p>If Union could play better defense, a lower-scoring game might be the way to go. But with RB Leipzig at least keeping its attack up at the end of the season, I think the visitors will get a goal out of this one.</p>
<p>However, Union has come too far to let this shot pass it by when all it needs is a win at home over an opponent with nothing to play for. I'll back Union to claim a 2-1 victory at +1100. </p>

Dan's Best Bets

Last year, we saw this exact situation unfold with Borussia Dortmund. TSG Hoffenheim needed a win to finish seventh and gain entry to the Europa League, while Dortmund knew it would finish second no matter what it did on the final day. With only one side motivated, the result was a predictable Hoffenheim rout.

 

Union isn’t the type of team that routs its opponents, but the Iron Ones do take advantage of their situations, so I like Union to win this match and both teams to score at +475. Leipzig has scored in its past six games, and I can’t ignore the fact that Union has conceded in each of its last ten matches. If you’d like to play this more conservatively, I think you’ll be just fine taking Union to get the win. Taking Union on a double chance at -141 appears an incredibly safe bet, but there’s not a lot of point to doing that and paying the juice in a game where Union needs to have the win. Unless you just want to limit your risk, I’d recommend going for the win or at least playing a draw no bet at +140.

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