<h2>
Last Time Out:<br />
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<p>
Italy routed Switzerland 3-0; Wales beat Turkey 2-0.
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<h2>
Previous meeting:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Italy routed Wales 4-0 on Sept. 6, 2003, at San Siro in Milan, Italy.
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<h2>
About the Matchup:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The question here is how much Italy decides it wants to attack because the Azzurri do not need to win the match to win the group. A draw of any kind would be enough to put Italy through as the winner in Group A, which begs the question as to whether Italy will rest a few players in preparation for the knockout stages. However, this is a young side, and getting a third win in the group stage might be big for the Italians' confidence moving forward.
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<p>
For Wales, the big key will be to keep the margin down if it does get beat. A win would see Wales top the group, but the Dragons would be perfectly happy with a draw or a one-goal loss, as a draw would guarantee passage as the second-place team, and a one-goal loss would do the job as long as Switzerland doesn't beat Turkey by at least four goals. Wales hasn't looked great in its first two matches, but it's put itself in position so that it doesn't have to get anything out of this match; it just has to limit the damage. With that being the case, a defensive strategy might be the thing to expect here.
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<h2>
Scouting Italy:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Italy has answered a lot of questions about its potential, and now the Azzurri are getting genuine attention as a contender to win the Euros if they get the right draw. Italy might be a tournament early as far as announcing its return to the world stage, but the defense continues to play lights out, and the Italians continue to find weaknesses in their foes.
</p>
<p>
Against Switzerland, the Italians lost the possession battle but made sure the Swiss never came close to actually threatening their goal, allowing the Red Crosses just one shot at the goal. Italy's defense has been so rock-solid that it's only seen one shot actually make it to the hands of keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. Beyond that, Ciro Immobile has stepped up with a pair of goals in Italy's two wins, and if he's leading the charge at the net, Italy's attack becomes that much more difficult to stop.
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<h2>
Scouting Wales:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The Welsh might not be here at all if Switzerland hadn't made the mistake of allowing them back in the match in their first matchup of the Euros. Contrary to Italy, the Dragons are an aging team, and if not for Turkey's shockingly poor showing, this might have been a tournament too far for a generation that's done several great things for Wales.
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<p>
There's still some quality on the pitch for Wales in Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, but the attack hasn't looked anywhere near as strong as it did when Wales made a run to the last four at the 2016 Euros. In order to get a result here, Wales needs to play stiff defense and dig in to keep Italy from overwhelming the goal. A really good showing for Wales would see Bale hit a free kick for the only goal of the match, but more realistically, Wales should be thinking draw when it takes the pitch in Rome.
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<h2>
Dan's Best Bets:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Wales has surprised me in consecutive matches, but I doubt that they pull a surprise three in a row, and especially not against Italy in Rome. Given what each team needs to achieve their goals, I think the best way to play this is Italy and under 2.5 goals at +190. There's little reason for Wales to push unless Italy opens up the match and Wales finds itself needing to score to hang on to second, so it's pretty likely that we see these teams slow the game down and play for a low score.
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<p>
Italy has earned all three of its wins over Wales by winning to nil, so if you're worried about a large Italian victory, there's nothing wrong with getting even money and taking Italy to win to nil again. However, given that Italy doesn't need this match and Wales has a huge interest in keeping Italy's margin under two goals, I don't think that's as viable of an option.
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<h2>
Dan's Score Prediction:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Italy should be in firm control of this one from start to finish, and the only real question in my mind is how big of a margin the Azzurri want to create and will be able to create in this matchup. Nothing I've seen in Wales over their first two games suggests the Dragons can break down the Italian defense, so this is all about what I think Italy's going to do.
</p>
<p>
I expect Roberto Mancini to bring on a few new faces, but only after this match is under control. I'll take Italy to claim a 1-0 win at +450.
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