Italy vs. Switzerland Odds & Picks

Italy vs. Switzerland Odds & Picks

Dan Jamison
Date: June 16, 3:00 pm
Location: Stadio Olimpico
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Italy -1/Switzerland +1
Moneyline: Italy -175/Switzerland +500/Draw +300
Total: Over 2.5 (+120)/Under 2.5 (-160)

<h2>
Last Time Out:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Italy handled Turkey 3-0; Switzerland drew 1-1 with Wales.
</p>
<h2>
Previous meeting:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The sides drew 1-1 on June 5, 2010, at Stade de Geneva in Geneva.
</p>
<h2>
About the Matchup:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Italy got off to the flying start that it wanted in Group A, while Switzerland managed to fritter away a win in a match that it controlled for well over two-thirds of the action. Because of that, Italy now has a chance to finish off Group A after two games, as they’d lock up first place in the group with a win and a draw between Wales and Turkey.
</p>
<p>
Whether the Azzurri actually want first place, however, is up for debate. Claiming first place would land Italy a straightforward match in the round of 16, but the reward would likely be a quarterfinal against a Belgium side that looks every bit as impressive as Italy did in its opening match. On the other hand, Switzerland has everything to play for, as it could seize control of the group with a win. But that’s a pretty far-fetched proposition given the history between these neighbors: the Swiss haven’t won on Italian soil since 1993.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Italy:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The win against Turkey served as notice to the rest of Europe: Italy is back, and it means business. The only concern in the opening match for the Azzurri was when the goal was come, as the defense totally shut down Turkey and barely had to worry about anything resembling an attack coming forward from the other half of the field.
</p>
<p>
That won't happen this time around, but Italy should still be in control of this contest as long as the attack can step up earlier than it did against Turkey. The Azzurri were all over the Turks' net but couldn't find a breakthrough until just before the final half-hour of the match. However, that's to be expected of a side that hadn't played in a major tournament since 2016, and the odds are that Italy will be much more relaxed now that it's put home three goals, especially with one of those coming from Ciro Immobile.
</p>
<h2>
Scouting Switzerland:<br />
</h2>
<p>
The Red Crosses are going to be kicking themselves for getting only a point out of their matchup with Wales. Switzerland was the dominant side in the match, but once the Swiss went ahead, they inexplicably backed off and allowed Wales to play the aggressor for the remaining half-hour.
</p>
<p>
Predictably, the Dragons took advantage of Switzerland's passive approach and equalized, stealing a point and putting the Swiss in a tight spot. Switzerland hasn't been shut out in its past nine matches, but the Swiss are going to have to do some work to keep that run going here. They're not going to get anywhere near as many opportunities against Italy as they did against Wales, so the likes of Breel Embolo and especially Haris Seferovic have to be better on the finish than they were in their opening match. Seferovic had 22 goals for Benfica in the Portuguese league, and it's time for him to start scoring.
</p>
<h2>
Dan's Score Prediction:<br />
</h2>
<p>
Switzerland controlled its match against Wales, but the Welsh looked a step slow and a few years longer in the tooth while the Swiss had the pressure on. Italy is a much younger and more dynamic side than Wales and has the home crowd behind it, making this a much tougher match for Switzerland than what it faced in its opener.
</p>
<p>
Switzerland will fight hard in this match, but I can't see the Red Crosses breaking down the Azzurri. I believe in the Italian attack, so I'll bank on them to get the second goal and claim a 2-0 decision at +550.
</p>

Italy vs. Switzerland Best Bets

One significant advantage Italy has in this tournament is that it doesn't have to travel until the knockout stages. On the other hand, Switzerland has to come from Azerbaijan to Rome, adding travel to its difficulties. As such, I like Italy to win to nil again at +120. The Italians are going to let in a goal at some point, but the Azzurri appear to be head and shoulders above their competition in Group A and shouldn't really be threatened until the quarterfinals. If you believe in the Swiss defense, there's good opportunity in taking Italy to win, and under 2.5 goals scored at +195.

 

Domenico Berardi's goal is likely coming sooner rather than later for Italy, and given that Immobile did the scoring in the first match, I think this is where Berardi gets off the mark. If you're looking for a prop bet, I think there's plenty of value in backing Berardi to score at +250.

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